Krsnaa Diagnostics - what is the diagnosis?

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A big thank you to @Deenar_Toraskar and @Anish_Moonka for working on Krsnaa with me over the last month or so.

Tender Landscape

Following on from previous posts, one goal in this thread has been to chart out the landscape of tenders that are currently being floated by the government. @Deenar_Toraskar has done fantastic work on finding a number of them.

Key points:

  • The current tender landscape is around 600 Cr. conservatively. These tenders close by the end of the month, and should be awarded in 2023.

  • Rajasthan is the largest tender at 200-300 Cr. Following this is a large pathology contract in Odisha worth around 100 Cr., and a couple of smaller tenders worth 50 Cr. each.

  • Cancellations of tenders and subsequent re-tendering happens all the time for various reasons. We found 3 tenders on this list that are up for re-tendering. One in particular has been in the works since 2020.

  • Therefore even if things are up for re-tendering, it’s fine. There are many on the table at any given moment.

  • There are lots of smaller tenders in the 5-25 Cr. range that individually add up to around 100 Cr.

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This is a work-in progress sheet. It will be updated when we find more details.

Assumptions in value: I’ve assumed each CT scanner gives around 3 Cr. of revenue, and each MRI gives around 2.5 Cr. of revenue. Pathology tenders are harder to ballpark, but have been done by reasonably extrapolating from Rajasthan data that we had above, and comparing the number of district hospitals in each contract, and the population of each state.

Tenders won in 2022, to be implemented

  • Largest win has been the operation of 39 CT scanners in Maharasthra, providing around 100 Cr. of revenue.

  • Uttar Pradesh contract is second largest at around 20 Cr.

  • Himachal Pradesh path contract is statewide, but I assume revenue is not very high as HP is not a populous state.

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From a very recent interview, it’s clear that HP path isn’t fully implemented yet:

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Centrewise CT Scan Data

  • I have found Krsnaa’s yearly throughput for some existing CT scan centres, along with dates of when contracts end.

  • The median number of tests done per year is around 13,500. At Rs. 2000 per test, this comes out to around 2.7 Cr. of revenue per CT machine, and around 36 scans per day. (Further points to my assumption on CT revenues being in line.)

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Krsnaa Teleradiology Ramp Up

Case study: Maharashtra

  • Krsnaa set up the teleradiology centres in Maharashtra just as the pandemic hit, in Q1FY21.

  • I have found district level data on the number of scans conducted, and categorised them quarterly.

  • Krsnaa went from conducting 40,000 x-rays per quarter to around 300,000 in the span of 8 quarters.

  • Since inception, centre did around 1.2 million tests, reporting 99.02% of all tests within the required turn around time.

Here’s the data visually:

Krsnaa Diagnostics X-Ray Volumes Maharashtra
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  • Note Q3FY23 data is current, as of 3rd December 2022, and therefore the quarter looks weak. At this run rate, quarter will end at around 300,000 tests.
District Q2FY21 Q3FY21 Q4FY21 Q1FY22 Q2FY22 Q3FY22 Q4FY22 Q1FY23 Q2FY23 Q3FY23
Total 7604 41901 57211 75959 100016 142688 133476 178694 263327 188033
AHMEDNAGAR 8 888 1050 1400 2238 2524 2484 3569 4633 2936
AKOLA 1 1013 1170 1700 3621 4359 3341 3680 7943 3755
AMRAWATI 5 1677 3139 3624 5587 6776 6259 8113 11078 6161
AURANGABAD 3 3190 2662 2336 3724 3992 3929 5984 9504 6597
BEED 7 225 576 686 1569 3307 3346 5502 8254 5706
BHANDARA 19 36 265 537 1486 4213 1622 1858 2799 2262
BULDHANA 9 475 984 1128 2410 2690 3101 2926 7397 6212
CHANDRAPUR 313 1981 906 1423 3372 6763 4817 7206 9023 6212
DHULE 1 206 427 433 1275 1847 2276 2983 3394 2388
GADCHIROLI 305 653 1287 2180 2934 4169 3129 3650 7209 6053
GONDIA 118 439 543 594 1629 2960 2015 2796 3120 2153
HINGOLI 6 383 472 724 783 1429 1198 1484 5009 3515
JALGAON 16 850 1034 981 1324 1457 1249 2054 3299 2594
JALNA 2 3732 2114 2433 2248 4228 3730 4997 8089 6561
KOLHAPUR 11 3670 3707 3717 4231 7593 7208 8984 14078 9853
LATUR 2 895 1626 2451 3928 4923 3918 6005 8498 4011
NAGPUR 2 461 885 904 1862 4154 4006 5334 6894 4310
NANDED 126 997 1578 1698 2016 4354 4100 4854 6853 4589
NANDURBAR 19 121 1040 844 1410 2012 1512 1458 1885 2250
NASHIK 1738 2519 3051 3200 6791 8151 8888 11931 16079 13522
OSMANABAD 4 513 907 1799 2745 4346 2581 3796 7122 5551
PALGHAR 2 133 869 752 1190 2842 3374 3859 5625 4433
PARBHANI 2 66 341 1930 998 2153 1728 2336 4095 3069
PUNE 18 2257 4232 6337 5518 7236 9512 13262 18708 12823
RAIGAD 1227 1557 3205 3852 3662 4197 3271 4270 6125 4934
RATNAGIRI 2009 1834 2020 2572 1752 1674 1846 2441 3554 3167
SANGLI 0 1060 843 2508 2524 5587 4341 8060 13611 4940
SATARA 2 988 1753 4109 4184 3838 3210 6634 11946 9685
SINDHUDURG 1243 3514 3925 4985 4439 4426 5350 5400 6968 5632
SOLAPUR 3 571 700 410 870 2872 3711 6324 8593 6337
THANE 345 3116 6056 6917 7692 9162 10677 12341 13985 11872
WARDHA 36 898 2025 2723 4962 6404 4649 5927 7563 5907
WASHIM 1 703 718 1907 2723 2896 3300 3996 4641 3680
YAVATMAL 1 280 1101 2165 2319 3154 3798 4680 5753 4363
  • I have found teleradiology data for 8 states, will compile and upload when I work on this again.

All the data we have is compiled at the following sheet:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1nHcO4Xe5n_y4dBRt-VGC--wASo3XqZkmv75qnRACPAY/edit?usp=sharing

Disclosure: Invested, Krsnaa forms 10% of my portfolio.

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