Went through entire thread Krishna. Your choices n your timing of picking up them is fantastic. You picked Page, Kaveri. Titan , symphony at wonderful prices n timing recently
Great call.
So at CMP which is the stock to buy?
I have to switch from BOB, Icici n partly TCS.
HaveNt you studied Repco?
What’s your take on Indian IT stocks specially TCS?
Exited titan couple of weeks back. Added Symphony and hawkins.
Just before the crash?
good timing. I think a lot of guys got burnt due to the titan fiasco. Would like to hear ur logic on hawkins.
I had profit booked some of my holdings at 270 odd and moved to kaveri/symphony. Majority of them sold with minimal gain after the RBI guidelines. For me the loss was the oppurtunity cost for the last 1 year. Market teaches you new things everyday!!!
Hiteshji,
For me titan was loss at the oppurtunity cost front. I moved some of my holdings(though not all) to symphony/kaveri before the carnage.
There are 2 reasons i added more of hawkins - One the unstable market, where i need to protect the capital even in the worst scenarios. I am expecting hawkins to declare a min dividend of 60-65 Rs this year and the price seems to be adjusted to that for the worst cases. The next solid reason is this year we will see how well it can leverage all its resources to the best extent, given all the hurdles are moved.
If they can increase the sales by 18% and improve the margins to 10-11% we will see NP swelling to 50-55 crs and with div payout of 90%, the price now supports for the worst scenarios and is a good buy.
The reason why there can be improvement in margins is because of their high quality brand value and financials. As i see all great brands and well managed companies like ITC,Nestle, HUL, Page, Asian Paints, Pidilite, Prestige all have NP margins of atleat 10% or more so why cant hawkins?
Exited TTK Prestige today. This stock has given me tremendous returns. It was tough to sell the stock with the average price of 770 at the time of selling.
Hi,
Whats your reading of the situation in TTK ? Is the no growth due to economic condition ?
What is the risk, that we can see a similar situation for Hawkins ?
Regards
From the result i could see that TTK prestige is finding it difficult to grow in the current economic condition plus the imports overhang ( where rupee is getting depreciated). Though with the new capacity in gujarat could reduce the dependency on imports, i believe it will take some time for TTK Prestige to come over this overhang entirely. The scope for margins expansion is not there.
This is where hawkins can score. Let’s see how hawkins results are. Topline growth, even if it is moderate should be fine if there is visibility of margin expansion.if it can bring their margins to 9.75-10% for the full year should be fine. Their div payout and yield should protect the downside.
Currently we have companies which can grow 25-28% as discussed in valuepickr without any issues and better visibility and have better options.
Thanks Krishna.
Added Repco. Initiated position in V-guard.
Hi Krishna,
Interesting to see you adding V-Guard at 25 pe. What kind of eps growth are you expecting here (min-max range). I feel there wont be any pe expansion for it, there is a scope of pe contraction though.
Also for repco, what kind of growth in BV, EPS is expected from it. Also do you believe any P/B expansion can happen in repco?
Regards,
-Subash
What percentage would you allocate to summer stocks (Kaveri, Symphony, V-guard) ?
Also, post TTK exit, pls share your pf in terms of allocations
Hi subash,
You are correct, there is less scope for PE expansion for V-guard. If things turnaround as expected, there can be tremendous EPS growth. I am expecting atleast 25-30% EPS Growth if things go as expected.
The trigger would be to expand in non -south markets increasing the per dealer revenue from 2.5 crores to 6 crores and bringing the dealer margin as in south.
The contribution from non - south is 22% which the management wants to take it to 40% and more in the coming years. For this there is huge advt & branding expenses which should come down in the coming years.
For Repco, i am expecting 25%-30% EPS growth. P/B expansion can happen.
man Bajaj’s consumer durable business is Atractive …
No one can come near Bajaj Brand
Added Repco. Initiated position in V-guard.
My latest holdings:
Page - 30% (due to the run up)
Mayur - 20%
Hawkins - 16%
Kaveri - 14%
Symphony - 12%
Repco - 7% (planning to take it to 12%)
V-Guard - 1 % (initiated position)
Waiting for this quarter results on mayur and may hold/reduce the existing portfolio.
samir sir,
The brand value V-Guard commands, especially the service in south is very good. Only thing is for it to reach pan-india. However no denying the fact of bajaj’s brand.
Krishna, do you think part of mayur can be converted to Unichem and Kaveri?
Mayur is facing slowdown and also management has forecasted tepid sales growth.
P.S: I have 18% allocation to Mayur and 10% allocation to Kaveri and Unichem each.
@Rohit,
you can increase kaveri as it seems to have better visibility of earnings in the current slowdown.
added V-GUARD,REPCO, symphony yesterday.
