@Kuldeepjadeja @r13rk - Use right keywords in google and it will throw all the answers.
First link of googlehas all the answers:
This to me seems like one of the most undervalued businesses in India right now. I have been following for a while and have not found anything wrong with the cash flows, debt, management attitude, margins, growth. The only dirt you can find is because of a couple of cases but the paperwork clearly shows that there is no sufficient evidence to build a case against the company. Investing here would be true value investing.
Disclosure: not invested but tracking
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Recent con call transcript
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The way I see this business is a 10-15% growth story with some re-rating triggers as a bonus.
It is undervalued but re-rating would depend on-
- Resolution of ED cases
- Execution towards vision of 8000 cr revenues
- Energy business demerger/hive-off to showcase higher ROEs
- Change of market perception - Would market give it just a higher multiple compared to rice companies or would market consider it a consumer company or the whole sector gets re-rated. Tile companies once considered commodity now trade at 20-25PE
- Higher dividend payment. Can dividend be increased? To reach 8k cr revenues, company needs only 2-2.5 years of profits for inventory - What would happen to remainder accumulated profits once inventory needs are taken care of
Above factors make it an evolving story
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Agreed. However, here are my views in relation to your points:
- The ED cases have no substance in them. Especially in relation to the company. The individuals in question did not affect the company’s operations and also left the post years back. It seems like political vendetta which will not matter anymore because this pandemic will leave a very small number of high performing companies and KRBL is one of them.
- The management has mentioned in the last con call that achieving such revenues is not very difficult in a commodity business like rice. However, they are very focused towards profitability and not having bad debts. Therefore, they will not achieve the revenue target just for the sake of it.
- The ROE is already very high. Yes, the demerger will make it higher, but that is a non-issue for this company.
- I do not know about market perception but why I like KRBL is because they have tried to create a moat in a commodity business. They have achieved great returns and have been reinvesting these returns to increase the bottom-line. I think that there is a nuance to the Basmati business with respect to the aging process.
- I am not concerned with dividends and would rather have them reinvest to expand in more countries or make rice related snacks that LT foods is foraying into.
The only thing that I am concerned about is that because I am not an expert on the Basmati industry, I do not know how commodity-like it is. Through their profit margins and consistency, it seems that they have a moat (also the fact that Pabrai was really interested at 600 levels makes me think that he found some hidden moat in the business). However, it would be great if I could get that clarity.
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What stops pabrai from buying it at 200?
Is it due to any technical reason?
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I do not know if it is a legal reason. I think this might be something that only the insiders are aware of. This would be a good question to ask him via email.
good article
Thailand is facing issue regarding crop sowing due to drought and this might affect the exports from the country… this might help India which has already over taken Thailand in exports. @rupaniamit your views on the evolving situation … do Indian rice exporters and Thai exported compete in the same market …
Thanks
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My view is that as long as its the company who is getting interest free unsecured loan from the promoters and its not the other way round - I’m fine with it. Below has been the historical trend in loans from related parties:
I’m not an expert in regular rice market. I have somewhat limited understanding of basmati rice industry and basmati rice businesses. I’m not sure if Indian rice exporters and Thai exporters compete in the same market. However, I do know that the main basmati market (middle east) is not big consumer of Thai rice, but basmati rice. It is my understanding that folks who eat basmati rice on daily basis - they don’t switch to other rice variants overnight. Basmati rice consumers are loyal and somewhat sticky (just like Thai Jasmine rice 
)
In my view, info in this article doesn’t impact much to basmati rice markets.
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Thanks @rupaniamit for ur views regarding that. My opinion was that the co’s management was somehow targeted over past couple of years, so maybe not indulging in such transactions would have help.
Would also like to know ur views regarding thr capital allocation and future plans for the power business. They hinted at demerging it but I suppose nothing concrete as of now thr.
Yesterday, chamanlal setia came with very good results.
https://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachLive/48c3b7ac-5cee-484a-b2c7-38f6b1cf823f.pdf
Meanwhile basmati prices are on an upmove:
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Yes … The charts are also conveying a bullish story after long… There has been positive price action along with above average volumes in almost all the rice companies. LT foods has the most impressive chart of all, this might be cause of no opinion overhang on the stock along with the market realising that it can be a delevraging story at the same time. Meanwhile krbl looks good for 330 in the short term …
Regards
Divyansh
Invested from lower levels
Now scaling in
Regarding the basmati rice. I import Basmati from India and Pakistan in Europe. And, the price of basmati rice from India has been strong over the last few months. So, I have mostly shifted to Pakistan. The Pakistani variety is better in taste and lower in price.
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@8sarveshg
Nice analysis.
Few questions:
- The company had a negative FCF of -136 Cr in FY19. What caused the sudden issue and how was it rectified ?
- Market was giving a PE of around 35 in Nov 2017. What do you think caused the lower re rating and what can re trigger it in the upward direction ?
Does anyone know the current statuses of the ED case and the IT case? Was there any decision made by the courts?
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Im not sure but interestingly the june 20 shareholding pattern released today by the company shows increase in shares held by ED by 1.5% approx. No clarifications given by the company yet. Any insights by group members will help
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All shares are linked to the same family and same case. ED has taken
Abdullah Ali Balsharaf 1.52% stake in addition to earlier held stake of OMAR ALI BALSARAF
Balsharafs won in the High Court and now case is with the supreme court.
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