Thanks for adding your notes, its very comprehensive. I will add a few data points in terms of long term sales cyclicality and the kind of Mcap Kolte got in previous cycles.
Reported sales
2008 peak sales ~ 421 cr.
2010 low sales ~ 148 cr. (-65% from peak)
2014 peak sales ~ 764 cr. (416% from low, 81% from peak)
2015 low sales ~ 697 cr. (-9% from peak, 371% from low)
2018 peak sales ~ 1403 cr. (101% from low, 84% from peak)
2021 low sales ~ 692 cr. (-51% from peak, 0% from low)
Share prices:
2008 peak: 272
2009 low: 18.7 (-93% from peak)
2015 peak: 238.75 (1177% from low, -12% from peak), market cap: 1’812 cr.
2016 low: 78.4 (-67% from peak, 319% from low), market cap: 595 cr.
2018 peak: 404.7 (416% from low, 70% from peak) , market cap: 3’072 cr.
2020 low: 103 (-75% from peak, 31% from low) , market cap: 782 cr.
Market cap / sales
2015 peak: 2.37 (peak market cap 2015 / peak sales 2014)
2018 peak: 2.19 (peak market cap 2018 / peak sales 2018)
2016 low: 0.85 (low market cap 2016 / low sales 2015)
2020 low: 1.13 (low market cap 2020 / low sales 2021)
In terms of Mcap/sales Kolte got 2.2x in 2015 and 2018 cycles. If we just look at projected FY23 deliveries, it should be around 1800 cr. (3 mn sq.ft * 6000/sq.ft). With 25% EBITDA margins, current EV/EBITDA ~ 4.5x. On a EV/pre-sales number, Kolte is currently trading at <1x. This is in stark contrast to previous upcycles where they traded at >2x sales.
Summary: Business is in an upcycle and valuations are towards the 2016 and 2020 lows. I think its an interesting opportunity if management executes. In the past, they have overguided and underachieved.
Disclosure: Invested (position size here, bought shares in last-30 days)