KOLTE PATIL DEVELOPERS (KPDL)
CMP a 93.60 (as on 26 mar 2014), TTM PE - 5.72 , MCAP a 710 cr
KPDL are primarily Pune based developers having about 8-10 % market share in Pune. They have some projects in Bengaluru also and have recently forayed into Mumbai redevelopment projects. The company is present in all segments a economy (Umang homes), MIG a township and non township projects, and Luxury ( 24K brand)
**INVESTMENT RATIONALE )- **
Even in a tough environment the company has trebled its revenues since 2007 without much increase in debt. The stock in my opinion is undervalued as other realty companies with good balance sheets like Ashiana, Godrej Properties, Oberoi realty, Sobha Developers are trading at much better valuations. The company foray in Mumbai is expected to increase margins. Company has good amount of saleable property which provides future visibility. Also the corporate governance standards seems to be decent.
Request feedback from other VPas and Pune members.
Pardon me for the long post.
NEGATIVES / RISKS a
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Risks associated with realty sector.
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Govt policy risk a any unfavourable change in govt policy a delay in approvals.
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Macro risks a if the economy remains subdued and the job creations remain limited, the public will not have purchasing power and sales will be affected. For the sector to perform well the economy needs to grow at a healthier pace. In the absence of demand the stock is unlikely to deliver good returns.
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High inflation and high interest rates will again affect the demand.
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Rising land prices will make further expansion difficult… Rise in input costs ( materials, labour etc) will affect profitability.
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Liquidity risk. Unablility to raise funds.
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Rising Competition. Decline in apartments prices.
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Much of the sale is coming from IT / ITES sector, any slowdown can affect growth. Company has high exposure to Pune.
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Though I have not been able to find any corporate governance issues, if any such issue pops up in future, or acts of mgmt. incompetency like unablility to complete projects in time and poor quality of construction etc can damage brand value.
POSITIVES a
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Since 2007, the outstanding shares are almost same - 7.6 cr. Bet 2007 to 2013, Even though the revenue has incr 3 times from 230 to 750 cr, . the debt level has remained in limits and fluctuated between 150 - 190 cr. Margins have been affected as the overall economy is down, np has increased from 83 to 124 cr.
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High promoter holding 74% + , no pledging of shares.
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The company seems to have decent corporate governance standards, it has made a nice presentation for share holders and also the annual report is quite informative where the mgmt. clearly states some of its strategies. Company has recently appointed Deloitte as auditors ( KPMG are internal auditors).
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Company has a dividend policy of 15-25% of annual profits. Div yield at present share price is 3%+
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If the company is able to maintain leadership in Pune , then mgmt. must be doing something right.
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Presence of reputed companies like ICICI ventures and ILFS as joint venture partners in different projects. I feel with this the chances of outright fraud by mgmt. is less. Also the partnership is in form of equity stake and not in debt so KPDL does not have to give any assured return to other stakeholders.
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Assigned aCRISIL A+/Stablea’ rating to the long-term bank facilities and non-convertible debentures.
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Though all the executive board members are family members, the CEO is professional guy from ISB, Hyderabad.
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The company is presently selling about 2.5 msf in a year but targets to sell about 8 msf. The company has the potential to do so , only thing needed is the demand and approvals.
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The management seems to be more concerned with the cash flow / working capital and is willing to reduce prices if required to maintain cash flow.
OTHER INFO
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51.7 msf (million square feet) of saleable land in Pune , Bengaluru and Mumbai. (company share abt 28 msf).
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The company has recently purchased 34 acres of land in Pune ( Wakad ) for about 350 cr mainly through internal accruals. The exact debt level will be known with March 2014 results.
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Company has invested 68 cr in Aluform technology to reduce slab cycles and labour.
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Share in revenues a Mumbai 1%, Bengaluru a 7%, Pune a 92%
foray into Mumbai will aid margin expansion and reduce working capital cycle. The company has recently won 2 bids for redevelopment in Mumbai. Total 3 projects in 1st year of operation. As per mgmt, the company bids only through tenders for Private society redevelopment projects. In these cases the company does not have to incur costs for purchase of land. The upfront costs include rentals given to tenants and tenants are provided new and bigger flats in new construction, while the rest is available with the builder to sell. The cost of construction can be recovered by selling apartments in advance to the buyers. This reduces the working capital requirement of the company. Amendment of new Development Control Regulations rules by the Maharashtra Government has further shifted focus to redevelopment in Mumbai. FSI for redevelopment of old housing societies has been raised from 2.5 to 3.
The company treats the land as raw material and does not see land banks as an asset. Due to this the debt levels remain in limits. The mgmt intends to maintain net debt / equity ratio below 0.3 at all times.
KPDL prefers to invest in only those parcels of land that are free of any title issues and where most approvals are already in place. While such land parcels might command a price premium, we believe that the benefits of lower risk of delay in starting construction and hence final delivery are far higher in such land deals which outweigh the premium we pay at the start. In addition, given our positioning and brand strength, we are able to command a premium to the prevailing market rates from customers which more than offsets the premium we pay for such land parcels
We purchase a land parcel outright when (a) we can predict the sales velocity with reasonable certainty, (b) the cost per square feet of land is less than 40% of the expected sales price per square feet, © that the land parcel falls under the correct urbanization zone which increases the visibility on future appreciation potential of the particularland parcel, and (d) most approvals are already in place and construction can commence in a reasonable time frame. Where there is uncertainty or lack of clarity on any of the four points mentioned earlier, we go for the joint- development/joint-venture route
The Company also remains open to an outright purchase or a joint venture deal provided that the land costs (KPDL share) are within INR 200 Crores and that all requisite approvals are already in place.
Article by forbes.
DISCLOSURE - invested. Views are biased.