Kaveri seeds company limited -- kscl

When the promoters sell at 650, does it mean that they believe that the stock is only worth 650 to them? They are pocketing the Rs 150 difference proportionate to their entitlement. Also, buyback at a premium is value eroding. Why not just give a dividend for the same amount? If they are doing it to prevent the shares from a free fall, they should instead wait so they can buy back for even cheaper.

Isn’t it better to see the promoter shareholding increasing rather than decreasing? For me personally buybacks via tender offer route makes this company less attractive than if they were increasing true shareholder value by buying back at the best possible price. Is it really possible to support the share price indefinitely by buying back at a premium?

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Fair points. And I’m glad the negatives of this process are on display too. I still personally find comfort in the fact that I can tender my shares in a few months at a premium… but the catch 22 is I probably won’t end up tendering them. So while the option of doing so is just a nice safety net and gives me comfort investing knowing I have an easy out incase my thesis is wrong… I may not even need this safety net since conviction is present haha… but as you’ve rightly said it will be a benefit to exiting shareholders and not existing ones since a buyback doesn’t necessarily lead to meaningful price rises so long term investors may get the short end of the stick with this. Either way the final decision will be made post Q4 at the board meeting. Will give the company the benefit of the doubt until then and until things are finalised.

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I have emailed them with the same arguments. Not sure if its going to amount to anything but at least we can raise our concerns to them. Maybe if more investors raise these questions in every forum possible, at least the management will know we are paying attention to how they are allocating the capital.

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Tried comparing Kaveri with Nath Bio-Genes. Both are doing similar except Nath given it’s small size can grow faster and has lesser issue of skewed product portfolio. In any case both look real cheap.


Source:Seeds to grow your portfolio...

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Results are out. Attaching presentation below
KSCL_09022021180045_Q3Presentation.pdf (2.8 MB)

Looking at how the market has reacted im a bit shocked since it’s broken all supports. I don’t think the reason is the market doesn’t understand the company. You cannot compare QoQ with an agricultural company and has to be a YoY comparison. YoY they have continued doing fine in what used to be nil/negative quarter. 9 crores PAT vs 8 crores PAT with negligible change in revenue. Q1 is when the fireworks happen in this company and maintaining profits rest of the quarters is part and parcel of its business and the good news is they have managed to continue with a profitable quarter and walked the talk for 2 years now(improved product mix with better contribution from vegetables/rice and decreased reliance on cotton along with better Q1 contributions YoY and stable other quarters). The market knows all this. However, I’m slowly beginning to wonder if rather than the market I’ve got my thesis wrong since the market is rarely wrong and I as an investor may be the idiot in this scenario.
Becoming extremely difficult to hold my conviction here. Maybe there really is something I’m not seeing…they appointed an additional director too. Not sure if that has negative implications. Can’t quite figure it out.
Disc: invested… but it’s been a painful journey so far.

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really strange. Company seems to be doing really well going to the extent of disclosing where they have invested cash also!

patience is key here
-12% growth in revenue from previous 3 quarters(which has already been growing at 12 to 14% growth)
-less reliance on cotton plus that 70% growth in vegetable market combined with they have very less market share and it grwing at 20% and going forward i can see they will capture more(need to track),maize doing good.
-healthy amount of cash in the books
-p/e of under 10

I will hold the share will add more if it drops below 480 ,a business as easy as this to understand will be re rated at a higher pe mutiple i am pretty sure of that

disc: not a sebi advisor invested and plan to invest more at dips so views may be biased

In the world of banking,IT and Pharma where the growth is in double digit, i believe the brick and mortars will take a backseat, also there is always an overhang on the agriculture sector due to possible govt intervention. the way KSCL is increasing sales in vegetables is very commendable but again it is still not a new age business like TECH, banks or pharma, i have nothing personal against this industry but the valuations are always low.

I had positions in KSCL and exited the same due to lack of momentum.

Q3 results

  1. They have lost some revenue in Telengana due to higher sale of illegal seeds & due to their thinking of not doing sales on credit. But have gained traction in most of the other states
  2. They still maintain their full year guidance and the same guidance for the next year. 10-15% sales growth and 15-20% profit growth
  3. As per December filings, Pabrai has finally completely sold out. Interestingly Sunil Singhania’s Abakkus fund has entered Kaveri.
  4. Cotton has already reached 47% and is likely to reach 40% of revenues in the next year itself. Rice contribution has increased from 17% last year to 24% already. Maize is stable
  5. Another buyback to be announced (most likely) as soon as the 1 year period is over.
  6. Not impacted by farmer’s agitation

Recognition of performance by the market is not in our control. Sometimes markets look for consistency in performance for a few quarters before a stock is re-rated (but in Kaveri’s case only Q1 is probably looked at, so it may take 2-3 good Q1’s instead) and sometimes something as trivial as the entry of a well known investor coming in the media and speaking about the story.

Still holding

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Issue with Kaveri seems to be highly fragmented market with lot of smaller players as someone compared Nath Bio… Surely there will be many unlisted players aswell. Else how do you compare MoM high growth in tractors( 50%:M&M 45%: Escorts) and low single digit growth here. Maybe high dependence on Q1 as pointed earlier is still due to cotton contributing 47% is also responsible…
In the investor deck firm has given so much data on rainfall and acreage for each crop, which they had made it simple and shared some estimates on market share; this ways we can really know if they are doing well wrt competitors

ICICI Securities Report state Crude oil prices are up 26% YoY and this will likely lead to higher prices of nylon, a major competing commodity to cotton. We note cotton prices (wholesale price index) have also increased to 114 in February 2021 from 92 in October 2020. Higher cotton prices will boost cotton sowing. Kaveri Seed Company Ltd. generates ~50% of its revenues from cotton seeds, hence is likely to be a major beneficiary of cotton price rise. Higher revenues of cotton seeds is also margin accretive. We remain positive on the company given the success of its non-cotton seeds and market share gains in cotton seeds in Gujarat and Haryana among other states.

Disclosure: among top 10 holdings

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After reading about the company, I seem to find following points in terms of variant perception :

  1. Not a branded moat but a balance sheet moat in a high uncertainity business is satisfying
  2. Company refused to play the low pricing game in parts of illegal sale of seeds (Latest earnings transcript)
  3. Shifting focus towards higher margin products like rice and vegetables and hybrids and thus a bigger runway for gaining market share than compared to cotton
  4. Barriers to entry seems like a mini moat as no random player can enter and start a seed company without the proper gestation period.
  5. IN TERMS OF ALREADY PRESENT PLAYERS :
    My mind tends to compare this to the paints industry, where Asian Paints does not necessarily offer superior quality paints. Their REAL moat lies in distribution and supply chain and associated vendors/retailers.
  6. SOMEWHAT SIMILAR CASE :
    ITC and VST industries also suffer risk from illegal markets of cig business, and Kaveri looks to me being in same spot. But balance sheet strength and cash surplus allows to generate and operate with good return ratios.

Disc : Not Invested. Currently tracking as valuations looks exciting.

P.S. Take my views as a variant perception only where my brain is trying to connect dots from history to map the future. :slight_smile:

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BT cotton seed prices increased by 5%

disclosure: not invested, tracking.

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Just a basic question whether buyback is better or dividend payment for long term investors and Company.

Seems like a commodity play to me by the market’s perspective. As seed prices or other schemes announced, stock shows signs of movements. But as soon as regulated, its stagnant even when the business seems to be doing well in terms of hybrid rice, paddy and vegetables. But feels like the market is too fragmented for a monopoly to be formed by Kaveri?

P.S. Positive criticism encouraged

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I am a novice when it comes to stock investing so please read what follows with that in mind. Seems like some companies on occasion end up eroding shareholder value by doing buyback or dividends wrong.

Good vs Bad Buybacks

Buybacks that are wrong would be tender offer buybacks where they pay 20% or more premium on the market value of the share purportedly to reward the shareholders. Instead buybacks should be like Berkshire’s where they don’t pay above a certain percentage of the book value or intrinsic value.

Buyback Tax doesn’t differentiate between good and bad buybacks
What muddies the water for buybacks in India is the buyback tax. It would have been more effective to make buyback tax applicable only on tender offers instead of open offers. This would allow the companies to repurchase shares in a way that is beneficial to all shareholders rather than self dealing via tender offer routes. Buyback tax discourages both good and bad buybacks. Buyback tax has taken away a good option from the companies to increase shareholder value without self dealing by the management or controlling shareholders.

Here are couple of quotes from the latest annual letter from the sage relevant to buybacks:

We did, though, increase Berkshire’s per-share intrinsic value by both retaining earnings and repurchasing about 5% of our shares.

Those unrecorded retained earnings are usually building value – lots of value – for Berkshire. Investees use the withheld funds to expand their business, make acquisitions, pay off debt and, often, to repurchase their stock (an act that increases our share of their future earnings).
As we pointed out in these pages last year, retained earnings have propelled American business throughout our country’s history. What worked for Carnegie and Rockefeller has, over the years, worked its magic for millions of shareholders as well.

Dividends too can be bad for the investors if they fall in the high income brackets where the taxes are as high as 43%. It would be better for the shareholder if the companies reinvest the earnings instead provided they are able to earn returns at above the return rate that is available to most shareholders or investors in other instruments like FD.

Please also read about dividend irrelevance theory and manufactured dividend concept. Here is a link that touches on both these concepts. I think manufactured dividends is a viable option for small retail investors as capital gains can be booked upto 1 lakh tax free or if the gains are grandfathered under the rule where the gains are only taxable above the bhav copy value as on 31 Jan 2018. Also manufactured dividends will be taxed at capital gains rate of 10% or 15%. This will be more tax efficient than dividends for some retail investors. For me as an individual retail investor, it only matters what happens to my purchasing power years down the line rather than dividends now.

In companies that are able to reinvest earnings at rates better than what an individual investor is capable of investing, dividends will not be as good an option as retained earnings for all investors. However, if companies would end up diworsifying with retained earnings and thus earning lower returns than what an individual shareholder can earn by reinvesting those dividends in other companies or investments then we are better off getting the dividends.

So, ideally we would want to invest in a company that doesn’t give out dividends while reinvesting at better rates of return than an average investor. Also, because of buyback tax, we don’t want companies in India to buyback if the buyback tax plus buyback price is much greater than the intrinsic value of the company being purchased. We want companies that just reinvest earnings and compound for a long period of time as long term investors.

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Cotton seed realisation for companies ex royalty is now starting to increase post a massive decline since FY16. Maybe this is the trigger for Kaveri to reverse it’s 5years of underperformance


Source:It's turning around....

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Good Monsoon for third year in a row should agur well .

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The use of HTBT cotton seeds is banned in India even though many farmers in India are demanding a lift on restrictions from the Government and many farmers are already using it as well. It is already in use in many Western countries for many years now. As per farmers, the use of HTBT increases productivity even though is around 50% more expensive than Government set price of approx. 750 Rs for BT cotton as HTBT is herbicide-resistant and reduces the labour cost of pulling out weeds. Many farmers are already using it and companies like Kaveri are loosing out on sales due to this.

With stagnated yields of BT cotton for many years now and Bollworm developing resistance against BT cotton, it may be a possibility that the Government may approve the use of HTBT cotton in the coming years. In that case, does Kaveri Seeds has the capability to produce HTBT cotton and switch from BT to HTBT quickly. Could anybody with the knowledge of this matter throw some light on this?

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Q4FY21/FY21 Results

Performance at a Glance
KAVERI SEEDS NET PROFIT FOR FY 2021 UP BY 19.74 % at Rs 311.20 cr
 Profitability continues to improve steadily:
o Net Profit for FY21 stood at Rs. 311.20 crore, up 19.74%
 Operational EBITDA margin in FY21 at 28.76% up by 104 basis points compared to FY20
 Net sales higher by 11.39% for the year under review
 Total cash on books of Rs. 533 crore as on 31 March, 2021
 Kaveri Seed Company becomes the first seed producers in India with more than one lakh acres under seed production.

AXISCO-22158-L (bseindia.com)

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