Vinod,
Nice way to look at the inventory data. You are quick to catch the important parts:)
But your fascination with KexVg is baffling —that will just be what it is - exotic, without meaningful additions to top or bottomline - not before 5 years.
Most important things as per me
1). Management Integrity is unquestionable
2). they will grow at 20% for next 2-3 years, that’s very good
3). Growth will not come from KexVg, or MIcroteck - that was made very very clear
4). Growth will continue to come from existing segments for next 2-3 years)
5). Next growth trigger is Rice Hybrids - after 3 years - I think we should take them seriously on this; collect more facts; there are trials by Syngenta going on for last 4 years, with some 40% yield improvements
Get more statewise/regionwise data on Cotton, collect more data on Rice Hybrid and quiz Kaveri Management a second time - this time because of too much info too soon - we couldnt do a good qualifying job of their responses; next round will achieve that
In my opinion - there are good strengths on the table - for an investment decision; My objective would be to establish if the strengths are great to excellent - then this is is a very very exciting bet for the long term. If not, then its a normal bet.
All facts collected so far, point to guys a)are ethical, b) who execute very well on the ground and c)might have excellent products up the sleeve
a0 & b) are a given and good enough for investment, but if c) is also there:))
I am off circulation from tomorrow morning till Sunday 14th - some BITS meet:). Please carry forward the discussions.
Kaveri is still potentially one of the most exciting bets in ValuePickr stocks. BUT, that is yet to be established. There are still many IFs:(
-Donald
