http://www.cotton247.com/article/27118/10-years-of-bt-in-india-biotech-seeds-save-indian-market
Another excellent article that educates on
a) the real impact of BT cotton on Yield improvement, insecticide spens and the like
b) how illegal BT Cotton seeds threat was contained
c) Myths spread by NGOs/and some valid cliams
http://www.livemint.com/Politics/ldOqQmHGPlK2asIy0SQY4I/Vidarbhas-tryst-with-Bt-Cotton.html
This makes clear that uptake is far less in Maharshtra , especially in Vidarbha due to a combination of many factors - less surface soil, rain-fed vs irrigation, non support from state giovernment/banks on loans but left to mercy of moneylenders. But Yields still went up by 60% in the last decade. Some farmers have shifted to Soyabean!
Super articles! I liked the first one the most, as it also elaborated clearly on Mahasrashtra. Quoting excerpts. This is a 3-part article, so there should be more gold in here:)
Interestingly, the yields doubled in Maharashtra, from 194 kg of lint per hectare in 2002 to 394 kg of lint per hectare in 2010. It is important to note that 97% of 4 million hectares of cotton in Maharashtra is grown under rain-fed conditions. The area in Maharashtra increased from 2.8 million hectares in 2002 to 4 million hectares by 2010, with Bt cotton occupying more than 95% of the area.
Later, several NGOs started highlighting any crop failure as a failure of Bt cotton technology. Some started a campaign that Bt cotton was input intensive and was making farmers debt ridden over the years and finally forcing them to commit suicides, especially in the 1.4 million hectare, rain-fed farming systems of Vidarbha, a predominantly dry tract of the central Indian state of Maharashtra. Clearly crop failures resulting from either abiotic or biotic stress were being attributed to Bt technology. Some tried to instigate the farmers to claim compensation from the company, ignoring the fact that Bt cotton was developed specifically to offer protection against bollworms, not against any other adverse factors.
However, some of the issues highlighted by NGOs were valid. They alleged that the phenomenal increase in area under Bt cotton was not necessarily farmer driven, but happened because of the non-availability of the conventional non-Bt seed packets in the market. Farmers have been unable to make a proper choice of the Bt cotton hybrids from the 780 hybrid brands sold by 34 seed companies. Most of the hybrids are highly susceptible to sap-sucking insects, thus forcing farmers to use insecticides.
http://www.cotton247.com/article/28101/india-s-seed-market-what-a-difference-a-year-makes
The most interesting part in this article is towards the end, Shifting Crop Patterns for the 3 states!
_
_
Now that prices have crashed from last yearas peak, farmers are far less eager to grow cotton and are looking for alternatives to get better returns for their investments. Gujarat, Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh are the three major cotton growing areas, accounting for more than 90% of the Indian crop. The degree to which growers can shift to alternative crops depends on the region.
aIf you see a statewide shift in the crop from cotton if at all, I would guess that Gujarat growers could shift some of their land to guar seed and groundnut seed, and Maharashtra farmers might do the same with soybean,a Agarwal says. aThose in Andhra Pradesh, however, donat have many other crop alternatives. Farmers there shifted their crops from maize to cotton because of the better prices, but they do not have a third crop option, other than paddy. So while I believe there will be some movement away from cotton in Gujarat and Maharashtra, overall, the onus now is on the seed companies, which need to give farmers quality seed to regain their confidence in terms of quality.a
http://www.cicr.org.in/Database/dbcapp4.html
|
State |
04-05
|
05-06
|
06-07
|
07-08
|
08-09
|
09-10
|
10-11(P)
|
11-12(P)
|
|
Punjab |
5.09
|
5.57
|
6.07
|
6.04
|
5.27
|
5.11
|
5.30 | 5.60 |
|
Haryana |
6.21
|
5.83
|
5.30
|
4.83
|
4.56
|
5.07
|
4.92 | 6.05 |
|
Rajasthan |
4.38
|
4.54
|
3.50
|
3.69
|
3.02
|
4.44
|
3.35 | 5.30 |
|
Gujarat |
19.06
|
20.77
|
23.90
|
24.22
|
23.54
|
26.25
|
26.33 | 30.23 |
|
Maharashtra |
28.40
|
28.89
|
30.70
|
31.95
|
31.42
|
35.03
|
39.32 | 40.95 |
|
Madhya Pradesh |
5.76
|
6.35
|
6.39
|
6.30
|
6.25
|
6.11
|
6.50 | 7.06 |
|
Andhra Pradesh |
11.78
|
9.72
|
9.72
|
11.33
|
13.99
|
14.75
|
17.84 | 18.54 |
|
Karnataka |
5.21
|
3.81
|
3.75
|
4.03
|
4.08
|
4.55
|
5.45 | 5.49 |
|
Tamil Nadu |
1.29
|
1.52
|
1.22
|
0.99
|
1.09
|
1.04
|
1.22 | 1.21 |
| Orissa | 0.58 | 0.54 | 0.74 | 1.02 | ||||
|
Others |
0.68
|
0.80
|
0.87
|
0.76
|
0.26
|
0.21
|
0.45 | 0.46 |
|
Total |
87.9
|
88.20
|
91.40
|
94.14
|
94.06
|
103.10
|
111.42 | 121.91 |
(P)= Provisional
|
State |
04-05
|
05-06
|
06-07
|
07-08
|
08-09
|
09-10
|
10-11(P)
|
11-12(P)
|
|
Punjab |
16.50
|
21.00
|
26.00
|
20.00
|
17.50
|
13.00
|
16.00 | 17.00 |
|
Haryana |
15.50
|
14.00
|
16.00
|
15.00
|
14.00
|
15.25
|
14.00 | 17.00 |
|
Rajasthan |
11.00
|
11.00
|
8.00
|
9.00
|
7.50
|
12.00
|
9.00 | 16.00 |
|
Gujarat |
73.00
|
89.00
|
101.00
|
110.00
|
90.00
|
98.00
|
103.00 | 114.00 |
|
Maharashtra |
52.00
|
36.00
|
52.00
|
62.00
|
62.00
|
65.75
|
82.00 | 69.00 |
|
Madhya Pradesh |
16.00
|
18.00
|
18.00
|
20.00
|
18.00
|
15.25
|
17.00 | 17.00 |
|
Andhra Pradesh |
32.50
|
30.00
|
35.00
|
46.00
|
53.00
|
54.50
|
53.00 | 48.00 |
|
Karnataka |
8.00
|
6.50
|
6.00
|
8.00
|
9.00
|
12.25
|
10.00 | 12.00 |
|
Tamil Nadu |
5.50
|
5.50
|
5.00
|
4.00
|
5.00
|
5.00
|
5.00 | 5.00 |
| Orissa | 1.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 | |||||
|
Others |
1.00
|
1.00
|
1.00
|
1.00
|
2.00&
|
1.00
|
2.00 | 2.00 |
|
Loose Supply |
12.00
|
12.00
|
12.00
|
12.00
|
12.00
|
12.00
|
26.10 | 26.10 |
|
Total |
243.00
|
244.00
|
280.00
|
307.00
|
290.00
|
305.00
|
339.10 | 345.10 |
&= Including orissa ; (P)= Provisional
|
State |
04-05 | 05-06 | 06-07 | 07-08 | 08-09 | 09-10 | 10-11* | 11-12* |
|
Punjab |
551
|
610
|
728
|
563
|
565
|
432
|
593
|
591
|
|
Haryana |
424
|
373
|
513
|
528
|
522
|
511
|
587
|
561
|
|
Rajasthan |
427
|
397
|
389
|
415
|
422
|
459
|
512
|
548
|
|
Gujarat |
651
|
794
|
718
|
772
|
650
|
634
|
685
|
659
|
|
Maharashtra |
311
|
213
|
288
|
330
|
335
|
319
|
379
|
310
|
|
Madhya Pradesh |
472
|
494
|
479
|
540
|
490
|
424
|
462
|
426
|
|
Andhra Pradesh |
469
|
527
|
612
|
690
|
644
|
628
|
566
|
499
|
|
Karnataka |
261
|
268
|
272
|
337
|
375
|
457
|
346
|
405
|
|
Tamil Nadu |
725
|
668
|
697
|
678
|
780
|
817
|
1003
|
1011
|
| Orissa |
314
|
470
|
341
|
|||||
|
All India |
470
|
478
|
521
|
554
|
524
|
502
|
517
|
481
|
*= Yield data include loose cotton ; (P)= Provisional
Source: Cotton Advisory Board ( CAB) various estimates and 2010-11 & 2011-12 as on 24:01:.2012
Some selected Excerpts:
In Gujarat, 38 lakh packets of branded seeds were sold last year. The number can fall below 30 lakh for the current sowing season, the official said. âThe typical rush of farmers to buy quality seeds is now absent,â he says.
âIt seems that season expired before opened this year,â said a Gujarat marketing official of Nezuvidu, a Hyderabad headquartered company.Nezuvidusold 5-6 lakh packets in Gujarat market in last season. It has distributed around 5 lakh packets to the dealers for this season. Prospect of lower realisation has forced farmers to reduce input costs and go in for non-certified seeds.
Hitesh/others from around Rajkot:
Can you visit/call this guy, and revert back with findings:
Pravinbhai Patel ofPatel Agroseeds, a Rajkot-based distributor said, âFarmers are not much enthusiastic about cotton as they were in past two seasons. Current price fall disappointed them and many are undecided about what to sow in next kharifâ. But Patel does not expect more than 10% fall in cotton acreage as he says, farmers do not have a better option. âIf rain are timely farmers with irrigation facilities will opt for groundnut, but if the monsoon is delayed, farmers have only two options a cotton and castor seed,â he added.
Thanks TCX,
Few more points from me.
1). Given that farmers claim there is very little difference in yield between illegal and legal seeds and the illegal ones are available at half the price, that leaves few questions un-answered. Who are the producers of those illegalvarietiesand about earlier reports that seeds were being sold for higher price in the black market.
2). The point about RRFlex seeds towards the end of the article.
Key Excerpts:
The countryâs cotton yield is far lower than global average despite its emergence as a major cotton producing nation. The per hectare productivity is as low as 475 kg compared with Brazilâs 2,027 kg, Chinaâs 1,311 kg, the USâ 945 kg, Uzbekistanâs 859 kg and Pakistanâs 684 kg.
It started to slide gradually from 566 kg/hec in 2007-08 to 522kg/hec the following year and further to 486 kg/hec in 2009, falling to 475 kg/hec in 2010-11.
The enhancement in yields has been primarily due to several technological changes since 2002, significantly related to the introduction of Bt hybrid, seed treatment and process, the feasible research outcome of the National Agricultural Technology Programme, the Technology Mission on Cotton, integrated pest and nutrient management techniques, and so on.
The factors responsible for the decline in yield levels included erratic rainfall and emerging biotic and abiotic stress. The quality profile of Indian cotton has also changed.
Long staple cotton, which constituted a mere 20 per cent of the total production in 2000, increased to 74 per cent of the total cotton produced in 2010 because of Bt hybrids.
Strictly for the academics, amongst us:). From what I could make at a first glance, this paper may provide a balanced picture?
can someone summarise this for us:)
Constructing Facts:Bt Cotton Narratives in India
http://www.epw.in/system/files/SA_XLVII_38_220912_Glenn_Davis_Stone.pdf
Economic and Political Weekly September 15, 2007Competition and Monopoly in IndianCotton Seed Market
http://www.isid.ac.in/~bharat/Research/cotton_epw.pdf
Slightly dated article, but contains a wealth of information on the history and chronological development of the Cotton Market in India.
I had a quick glance. This should be interesting for everyone invested/tracking wanting to understand Cotton Seed Market in India.
Wow! now folks mightv start complaining of information overload/and others of over-analysis!!
But I could manage to locate the next in teh Serired bu CICR director K R Kranthi.
http://www.cotton247.com/article/27520/part-ii-10-years-of-bt-in-india
Important Excerpts:
Currently, the main issue that worries stakeholders is the stagnation of productivity at an average of 500 kg lint per ha for the past seven years. The gains have been stagnant and unaffected by the increase in area of Bt cotton from 5.6% in 2004 to 85% in 2010.
The yield was 463 kg per hectare when the Bt cotton area was 5.6% in 2004 and reached a mere 506 kg per hectare when the area under Bt cotton increased to 9.4 M hectares at 85% of the total 11.1 M hectares.
Other concerns relate to the enhanced problems of sap-sucking insects such as leaf hoppers, aphids, whiteflies and thrips on the vast majority of susceptible Bt hybrids. New pathogens such as aleaf streak virus,a Myrothecium and Ramularia started affecting the new Bt hybrids. Insect populations of mealybugs, miridbugs, gall midges, mosquito bugs and safflower caterpillars, which were hitherto unknown as pests, suddenly emerged as concerns after the introduction of the new Bt-cotton hybrids.
and now for the last this evening from me:)
imp excerpts
With 780 Bt-cotton hybrids, there is confusion all around, with farmers not being able to choose the Bt-hybrids that may be suitable for their soils and farming conditions. A suitable recommendation of proven package of practices, suitability and adaptability of specific hybrids for specific agro ecological sub zones would facilitate further productivity improvement. Lack of such recommendations have resulted in progressive problems and stagnation of production and productivity (560 kg lint/ha in 2007; 524 Kg lint/ha in 2008; 486 Kg lint/ha in 2009; and 506 Kg lint/ha in 2010) despite a steady increase in the area under Bt-cotton (62% in 2007, 73% in 2008, 84% in 2009, and 85% in 2010).
These issues are related to âstewardshipâ of the technology and have nothing to do with either the Nt technology or biosafety aspects. The issues have been a major concern with farmers since insecticide use is gradually increasing as required for the management of these emerging new insect pests.
The concern needs to be addressed on priority before it is too late. Though very useful in circumventing the problem of labor shortages, the new technology (Roundup Ready-Flex, developed by Monsanto) does not support cotton intercropping with the commonly used intercrops such as pigeonpea, soybean, maize, and jowar, which were cultivated as part of risk aversion or sustenance.
Can India emerge as a global leader of cotton? The answer, from those who know India well, would certainly be in the affirmative. However, such dreams can become realities only if appropriate technology stewardship plans are formulated utilizing the robust native science and knowledge, without resorting to product releases for short-term commercial gainsâsomething that several Indian seed companies have being doing over the past decade.
With the largest acreage of cotton in the world, abundant natural resources, hard-working farmers and world class technologies in use (with new ones on the way), India can emerge as a global leader effortlessly. It is probably only a matter of time for the rest of the world to wait and watch.
Superb information TCXâŚ
I think we should continue to focus on two things:
Can area under BT cotton increase from current levels
Can Kaveri gain further market share, if yes, who will loose the market share and why
Will cotton pricesstabilizeat current levels or can fall further.
From the above article I get sense (I guess I have negative bias for this stock) that farmer community will shift to another crop the moment cotton prices start falling and it may already be happening to some extent in Gujrat already.
http://www.cotton247.com/article/27614/part-iii-10-years-of-bt-in-india
Sorry, I had missed putting in the link for the article. Pls go thru the entire article for proper perspective.
As per my observation in and around Vadodara, Cotton is one of the main crop besides Castor, vegetables & Sugarcane. Majority of Cotton seeds used are BT though there is around 20-25% of non-certified seeds being used as they are cheaper. Yield is better with the certified seeds. I have seen Rasi being used widely alongwith Mahyco, Navbharat etc. Due to lower cotton prices, the cotton seed business must have taken around 10% hit. But still it is one of the main crop in Vadodara district as the soil suits to this crop. Regarding the sowing in Saurashtra region(another cotton producing region) due to very poor rains, very less sowing of cotton(could be 20% less). In the entire Rajkot dist. they got very late rain and very poor rain(50% of normal rainfall). The farmers have mainly gone for pulses crops.
Looking at the Kaveri seeds, I am not too sure whether they have a good foot here in Gujarat. Also Nezuvidu - not sure about their mkt share here in Vadodara.
Last year for Kaveri could be a blockbuster but repeating the same is a difficult task as they would have a higher base to perform. Growth of 20% looks achievable.
I would go and meet some farmers & distributors to get the clear picture during this weekend.
Disc. I am invested in Kaveri(around 12% of my portfolio). First invested around 370-390. Reduced around 820. After blockbuster qtrly results, bought back around 800.
Hi Guys,
I am multi-tasking many agendas and not finding time to update the Management Q&A. Will do so sometime this week.
Meanwhile many have written to me on Managementâs response to Dividend policy. Here are the points I remember. Om & Tirumal please add if I missed something, even any nuanced view.
"The way we see it, the Promoters will be the biggest beneficiaries of a hefty dividend payout. We have been increasing Dividends for the last 3 years, in line with our profits growth. Yes Dividend Payouts are currently on the lower side.
But please see this in the context of the nil/low debt situation. At this stage of our growth and in our kind of business we need to maintain enough Cash on the books. When we are comfortable on that front we will look to improve things on this front. Infact we might actually prefer a buyback of shares to increase shareholder value."
Dear Manish,
Thanks a lot for your grounds-up feedback. These kind of inputs are invaluable for the Investment community. Please continue your efforts and get us more, especially views/news from the Rajkot belt.
Re: Kaveri - Yes, they might not have had much of a presence in Gujarat in the first place. They should be strong in AP, and Maharshtra?
Everyone - its possible to do field level scuttlebutt by everyone! If you feel inspired to add value, time or competence (in subject) is not the issue:). How about an hour this Saturday/Sunday? - making attempts at identifying your local market agri-inputs/pesticides/seed supplier âŚand make simple laymen queries??
-Donald
I will try to get feedback from Rajkot & Junagadh district.
One thing I have noticed is that the farmers normally go for more than one brand of seeds particularly in cotton seed sowing as they need different quantum of water. So to de-risk the erratic rains, they follow this. They also go for some non-certified seeds alongwith the certified. The choice depends more on the recommendations from other farmers who had used the same seedsand gotbetter yields.
Kaveri Visit note by EDELWEISS:
I visited few farmers in Vadodara district and found thatRasi is theused more in the certified BT cotton seed category. While others are nearly absent but there are few local brands used like Ajit & Ganesh(mfg companies not known). Could not meet the dealers.
In Saurashtra region, Rajkot district has got very poor rains and hence crops are barely less than 50% also the yield would further drop to 35%. In Junagadh district, the situation is somewhat better with around 60% cultivation and yield around 50%. These are rough estimates with downward bias. In both the districts, Rasi is widely used with mix of other local brands like Ajit. Others have low market share.
