Just an observation, if your highest allocation stock has low returns then ur PF returns will get hit big time…
Highest conviction = highest allocation
(Some people confuse highest expectations = highest allocation, which is not case here)
Such opportunities don’t come often, so when we get one we should bet big.
Balance 1.6% cash also deployed in Satia Industries.
Not a buy recommendation
3 Likes
Hey I think it’s been 6 months since you started investing full time. How has the experience been? It’s a roaring bull market so as full time investor are you following any risk mitigation rules? What has been your total portfolio returns in this time?Thanks
1 Like
Sir,
Thanks for your prompt updates. To some extent am cloning your portfolio, may few more also getting some clues from it.
It would be highly appreciated that if you can keep up promptly updated on any add/sell as and when change in your portfolio
Warm regards
Ventura initiated coverage of Satia
Disc.: invested (discovered it on Kalpesh Ji’s thread)
2 Likes
It’s a very good experience, thanks to the bull market.
When I started serious investing from 2018, everything I bought went down and kept going down and down for next 2 years, I saw a full bear market and lost some initial corpus, It forced me to look out what mistakes I was making.
On march 23rd 2020 portfolio went down 55%, it recovered very fast in next few months and last month it was up 100%, now somewhere between 85-90%up.
in terms of risk mitigation rules -
- I’m selling cyclical’s as soon as they come to fair value
- I want to stay invested in companies who have some kind of competitive advantage or entry barrier so that business is protected
- I love to stay invested in disrupters, who are able to take market share away from peers, so even in economic down-cycles they are not affected much.
- I feel more comfortable to stay with managements who know their game, and are excellent capital allocator’s.
- As long as my stocks are undervalued, I can sleep peacefully.
I’m trying my best to get maximum returns out of the markets, but lets see.
Only time will tell how much naked I’m swimming.
4 Likes
I’m grateful for your belief in me, but I would request you to play with small amounts, Because I can be wrong with my selections,
I share my portfolio for discussion purpose only and it is not a buy or sell recommendations,
I will not be responsible for any gains or loses.
Good report.
After current expansion i think they may go after tissue paper market.
Yes that’s what Ajay Satia said in one of his interviews. I like the management – they’ve been doing concalls regularly and sound genuine and honest.
Hi, could you share the interview link please, I had gone through a few interviews of the management but they hadn’t mentioned about the tissue paper market in them.
4 Likes
@kalpesh4430 I see 19.3% of PF is Time Technoplast?. It has given almost 90% and still you are holding it, What are potential trigger you foresee for further upside movement?.
@Madhu_BD Time techno has a very stable business, it has recurring orders from its customers and management is capable as it can be seen that whatever country they started manufacturing in, they became market leader.
Economics of core business (Industrial packaging) is deteriorating w.r.t. time but what they are doing is they take cash generated from core business and invest in other businesses where economics are great.
It has owners earnings of 200+cr every year and it will grow with time.
Even if we consider owners earnings will not grow then business is worth 2500cr which was available at 800-900cr when I bought.
If we consider growth of 10% CAGR in owners earnings(which is very much possible) then it is worth somewhere between 4000-4500cr
If their composite cylinders actually see a high growth as management expect, we can expect market to give it even higher valuation.
So it was a very deep discounted bet when I bought it and now as management has also recognize their earlier mistakes and trying to solve it I’m even more bullish on it.
3 Likes
Exited completely from AiroLam Ltd
Thanks for your update.
Kindly keep updating all your position change ( add/exit)
Regards
**KG Petrochem Ltd AGM notes
They have huge assets lying underutilized for technical textile, management expect 200Cr top-line and 10% PBT from then in next 2-3 years
Management have no plans of expansion for next 2 years as they want to utilize existing capacity,
After 2 years they are planning for mega capex which will take top-line to around 1000cr in 2026-27.
FY21
Textile div at 67% utilization
Tech. Textile div at only 32% utilization
Management claim they have strong R&D team and planning many new products in artificial leather.
Customers for technical textiles - Paragon, bata and in talk with VKC, Kia, Ashok leyland, WolksWagon etc
I liked the way management thinks about doing business and I think they are very much capable, there may be some corporate governance issues but I think they will improve with time.
They are also working on some kind of clean room product required for semiconductor manufacturing, management believes semiconductors manufacturing in India will grow in next decade.
5 Likes
UPDATED PORTFOLIO -
10 Likes
Thanks,
Your conviction seems very high & confident with regards to Satia…
Yes.
Reasons -
- People responsible for running Satia are very very capable
- Available at reasonable valuations
- They are at advantageous position wrt to their competitors, whether it is Raw material, Pulp, Power, environmental issues, water, manpower, efficiency of plant, execution,location, realizations etc.
They turned all the odds in their favour.
Overall 90% companies in paper industry can’t stand a chance against them, and I’m convinced they will keep gaining market share from others. - for capacity expansion they did not just go with new paper machine, what they did is expansion of entire backward integration including power, so they get to keep lowest cost advantage from the day one of running the new plant.
7 Likes
Hi kalpesh, Any idea of paper cycle when it peaks and when it falls? And what are key things to monitor the uptrend in paper cycle? Is there any thing negative about satia or any thing which you don’t like about the business of satia?
This is just to understand more about Satia.
2 Likes