Most of the railway stocks are down 25-30% from their top, JWL has fallen more than that. Most likely a result of profit booking. Although such price action can create doubts, company is poised for growth in the upcoming years. Recent QIP at 655 was encouraging. As of 9/9 railway ministry invited bids for high speed trainsets indicating activity for new orders and tenders might be resuming. If anything, this drop can prove to be a good zone for accumulation.
D: No reco, invested.
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An unusual high volume of shares traded today - checked up and found the reason for the same . An acquisition done by the company.
J Wagons.pdf (608.9 KB)
QIP raised 800 cr in July 2024 at 689/share.
And now the share price is at 515. Did QIP investors too got caught in FOMO or is the company really undervalued in the bull market we are still in?
Source:
Railways continue to see order flow.
Jupiter Wagons secures Rs. 957 crore contract to supply 2,237 BOSM Wagons for Indian Railways.
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@basumallick It looks you have posted an earlier order.
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This gives a broader perspective on how the freight wagon demand can go up AND might eventually boost business for wagon manufacturing companies in my opinion.
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Any update on Q2 result
Key takeaways from the Q2FY25 earnings call:
Wagon Production & Sales:
- Company produced about 4,100 wagons in H1 FY’25
- Confident of achieving 10,000 wagon target for FY’25
- Regarding competition with Texmaco (which reported 5,300 wagons), management clarified this includes Jindal Rail’s numbers after acquisition
- No concerns about losing market share due to Texmaco-Jindal merger
Electric Vehicle Business:
- Launch timeline for electric vehicles confirmed for Q3 end (possible 1-2 weeks delay)
- Targeting 1,000 vehicles for FY’26 in domestic market
- Log9 acquisition cost: ₹40 crores
- Breakeven expected earlier than 3 years due to multiple revenue streams (vehicles, batteries, BESS, data centers)
Order Book & Revenue:
- Current order book represents 18 months of execution
- Comfortable with order book size of ₹6,000-7,000 crores
- Expecting large railway tender in next 4-5 months
- FY’25 order books are full, and FY’26 outlook is positive
- Management expects 20-25% CAGR growth for next 2 years
Wheel Business:
- H1 FY’25 revenue: ₹160 crores
- FY’25 expected revenue: ₹300-400 crores
- FY’26 projected revenue: ₹700 crores
- Capacity increasing from 10,000 to 25,000 wheelsets by FY’25 end
- New Odisha plant (₹2,500 crores investment) is a 3-year project
Brake Business:
- Stone India approval expected in 1-2 months
- Combined JV revenue (Kovis, Dako, Stone) expected at ₹300-500 crores in FY’26
- Strong order book in both Kovis (16,000 brake discs) and Dako (350 brake systems)
Capex Plans:
- FY’25 total capex across all businesses: ₹500 crores
- Major future capex focused on wheel capacity
- No substantial additional debt expected beyond previously announced plans
Export Plans:
- Exporting brake equipment to Europe
- Container exports to North American market
- Future plans for wheel exports to Europe (Tatravagonka partnership)
Non-Wagon Business:
- Targeting 50% of total revenue from non-wagon business by FY’27
- Growth areas include electric mobility, batteries, brake systems, wheels, and containers
- Log9 acquisition strategic for both EV and railway battery business
The management is optimistic about growth in all areas and is focusing on diversification and increasing capacity. They are especially confident about growth in the non-wagon business and expect the second half of FY’25 to be much better than the first half, as there will be fewer disruptions like monsoons and elections in first half of FY25.
Disc - Invested.
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On June 23, I shared a post about the railway theme, including the source I used for confirmation. I am now sharing my 2023 research document on JWL and its peers, hoping the community finds it beneficial. Back then it was a Turnaround in the Theme sector. I have been asking them questions from their first concall to check there developments
Dis- Not Invested
Jupiter wagon Ltd _Master document_Tushar.pdf (2.4 MB)
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JWL interested in acquiring Spanish train manufacturer Talgo. Possibly also why company wants to do fundraise. https://thecorner.eu/news-spain/indias-jupiter-wagons-potentially-interested-in-talgo/117912/
A near 10% vertical drop today with volume, potentially some institution offloading. Stock has fallen ~40% from the top now. Although long term story is intact, such a steep fall is unprecedented without any negative triggers.
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On reason could be with huge FII selling over last several weeks, all stocks having FII holding will also see a drop. 425 was strong support, today breached that and way below 40 EMA. Looking very weak, may see a dead cat bounce
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Jupiter Electric Mobility and Porter Unite to Sign a MoU to Empower Drivers
Through JEM Udaan Program
How beneficial is this ?
JEM is a new vertical and they are building an eco-system. This vertical will take its time to add value to the overall business.It may take few year to see sizeable contribution from this subsidiary.
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I am not sure if it will take few years, they took 1 year + to perfect their EV, the current release is to expedite EV sales , where porter is connected with over 7 lac drivers and they will educate them for cost benefits of EV over traditional fuel sources + government incentives (if any), so essentially they have tied up with one of the most relevant and single source large distributor for sale of EV. If the execution is good, this can scale up real quick. As for the rest of the business, they are acquiring train manufacture in Spain and possible focus on railway in upcoming budget, business should do really well from here on and valuations have come down significantly. 425 should hold but in such markets it is anybodys guess. Beauty is where there is value buy people will contemplate business. For some businesses at certain price risk reward becomes so favorable that it addresses some time lag in business / inefficiencies. My 2 cents
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Agree, tying up with Porter is a shrewd move. These vehicles will straight away get into action since Porter already has a huge driver base which is ever increasing. A theme like railways can’t be a one year story. With more emphasis on railways in the upcoming budget, stock can see further rerating from 17000 cr mcap that it is today.
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Key will be the feeling the govt is going to give in the upcoming budgets, my worry is govt focus shifting to welfare spending from capex/infra. We have start analysing how each company will perform irrespective of govt spending.
Decent Q3 set amidst a mixed result season in the broader market.
- Revenues increased 16% YoY to 1044cr in Q3 FY25.
- Ebitda margins expanded by 500bps on YoY basis to 14.4% resulting in EBITDA growth of 19.5% YoY to ~149 cr.
- PAT increased by 18.4% YoY to 96.4 cr.
Company has approved fund raise of 3000cr, potentially for the acquisition of Talgo. https://thecorner.eu/news-spain/indias-jupiter-wagons-potentially-interested-in-talgo/117912/
Stock hammered another 9% today when broader market was all green, mostly factoring in the result.
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