Jindal saw - Another beneficiary of India's growth story

[Mohit_baid]

Jindal Saw, the flagship company of the PR Jindal group, major products are longitudinal submerged arc welded (LSAW) pipes, helical SAW (HSAW) pipes, ductile iron (DI) pipes and seamless pipes and pellets.

The Company’s revenue is well balanced among various products with no single product contributing more than 30 per cent of its revenue. Most of the products contribute between 10 per cent to 30 per cent of the total revenue, thus providing diversification to the cash flows and hedge against market volatility related to any single product.

Jindal Saw has a strong presence in the overseas market, with export contributing around 25 per cent to its top line. A larger portion of the exports are to Latin American countries and MENA region. Almost half of the Company’s revenues come from water supply and sanitation (WSS), which is growing rapidly in India and globally.

The Company’s exposure to the oil and gas sector accounts for only one third of the total revenue. Due to its diversified portfolio, the Company has been able to protect itself from the volatilities in one or more strategic business units. Jindal Saw’s client portfolio includes the government and the private sector, with a strong domestic and international presence across brands.

Analysts believe that the company shall be able to report healthy operating performance on the back of its relatively de-risked business model with the benefits of diversification in terms of both product segments and manufacturing locations, and competitive cost structure with captive availability of iron ore for its pellet plant. Furthermore, favourable industry tailwinds on the back of government’s push towards investment in water sector and renewed focus on investments in global oil and gas sector shall benefit the company in the medium term.

Credits - Business standard

[Mohit_baid]

Financial Performance:

• Q3 FY23 turnover grew by 38% and 63% compared to the previous two quarters, respectively
• EBITDA showed growth of 61% and 140% for the last two quarters
• Debt levels have been reduced, and the balance sheet remains strong

Order Book:

• The company has a healthy order book with a good mix of domestic and international orders
• Large dia business is expected to be a driver for the next quarter, with significant export orders in the basket
• Healthy sales funnel for future orders

Product Strategy:

• Emphasis on premium and value-added products expected to continue to contribute to growth
• Moving towards value-added and premium products in all segments, including high-grade pellets, improved coatings, and new product development in DI, seamless, and stainless steel

Capex:

• No major capex planned, but the potential for a steel project in Dilwara in the future
• Considering a truncated form of a steel plant that will cater to the Nashik and Nagothane raw material inputs, which at this point in time, they buy from outside

Guidance:

• The company is confident that the momentum will continue, and they expect a good next few quarters
• EBITDA margin expected to improve to upward of 14% in Q2 FY24
• Expectation of government support for infrastructure projects in the upcoming budget

Legal:

• Sathavahana project execution expected after advance payment
• The Sathavahana project is sub judice, but the company expects a positive result in its favor and plans to add over 200,000 metric tons to capacity once in business
• The company has not yet invested in repair and maintenance for the Sathavahana project until a positive result is received

Working Capital:

• Jindal Saw Limited is using the excess cash generated to bring down its working capital cycle, which will help control working capital utilization and lower finance costs
• Working capital utilization is positively correlated to top-line growth

Market Cap:

• The management hopes that the market cap will reflect the value they have created and are working so hard to create.

All in all, I feel this is another undervalued company with high growth prospects and is not in the limelight yet. Do share your thoughts on the same.

[Mohit_baid]

Update - NCLT Hyderabad Approves The Resolution Plan Of Jindal Saw Ltd. For Sathavahana Ispat Ltd.

NCLT Hyderabad Approves The Resolution Plan Of Jindal Saw Ltd. For Sathavahana Ispat Ltd.

[karthikaithal]

I have invested in Jindal poly from long time and had a very bad feedback for complete Jindal group.

They never care about retail investor and also not provide any benefits to share holders. They always trying to cheat and also try to perform many corporate action without thinking morality or ethical standard to perform those.

I have attended many of their AGM and as investor we keep complaining their issue and they even not bother to respond to any investor.

So, be careful investing even small amount in any of Jindal group shares even there is lot of value in any counters. I am planning to take exit soon in all my Jindal holdings in few quarters before someone comes with report like Adani listed groups.

Happy Investing
Karthik
Disclosure: I am having exposures to many Jindal group company share for past 10 years and this is not buy or sell recommendation.

[Mohit_baid]

Narration	Mar-14	Mar-15	Mar-16	Mar-17	Mar-18	Mar-19	Mar-20	Mar-21	Mar-22	Mar-23	Trailing	Best Case	Worst Case
Sales	6,655.85	8,207.83	7,702.58	7,070.12	8,506.62	12,117.00	11,627.04	10,663.64	13,298.42	17,867.80	18,799.55	24,007.23	20,047.96
Expenses	6,014.34	7,253.88	6,979.40	6,393.18	7,465.90	10,645.12	10,116.24	9,421.52	11,898.98	16,190.55	16,765.05	21,409.15	17,978.06
Operating Profit	641.51	953.95	723.18	676.94	1,040.72	1,471.88	1,510.80	1,242.12	1,399.44	1,677.25	2,034.50	2,598.08	2,069.89
Other Income	26.18	75.87	135.69	330.35	24.05	514.97	-2.67	208.82	155.14	141.12	159.35	-	-
Depreciation	321.28	335.48	327.94	337.41	363.48	396.28	421.67	458.87	472.99	470.78	494.20	494.20	494.20
Interest	391.97	605.64	678.85	568.63	579.15	615.23	619.85	492.79	460.12	637.59	637.12	637.12	637.12
Profit before tax	-45.56	88.70	-147.92	101.25	122.14	975.34	466.61	499.28	621.47	710.00	1,062.53	1,466.76	938.57
Tax	54.66	116.11	-67.72	62.74	133.12	211.62	5.34	171.54	245.59	267.24	360.63	34%	34%
Net profit	-85.54	-14.47	-40.16	113.77	178.50	850.16	554.75	318.83	411.75	632.40	890.69	968.93	620.01
EPS	-3.10	-0.50	-1.32	3.56	5.58	26.58	17.35	9.97	12.88	19.77	27.86	30.30	19.39
Price to earning	-17.24	-124.40	-27.70	23.44	21.28	3.25	2.64	7.44	7.00	7.38	12.06	12.06	6.63
Price	53.38	62.07	36.53	83.40	118.75	86.40	45.80	74.15	90.10	145.90	336.05	365.57	128.52
RATIOS:
Dividend Payout	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	28.11%	21.50%	7.52%	11.53%	20.06%	15.53%	15.17%
OPM	9.64%	11.62%	9.39%	9.57%	12.23%	12.15%	12.99%	11.65%	10.52%	9.39%	10.82%
						TRENDS:	10 YEARS	7 YEARS	5 YEARS	3 YEARS	RECENT	BEST	WORST
						Sales Growth	11.60%	12.77%	16.00%	15.40%	34.36%	34.36%	11.60%
						OPM	10.93%	11.11%	11.13%	10.32%	10.82%	10.82%	10.32%
						Price to Earning	10.56	10.56	6.63	8.47	12.06	12.06	6.63
Source - screener

Risk Analysis -

Any major incremental cash support towards subsidiaries/group companies further straining its leverage
• Sizable reduction in order book position.
• Any major debt-funded capex or acquisition resulting in deterioration of TOL/TNW beyond 1 times.
• Any adverse outcome from the ongoing litigation between NTPC and JITF resulting in further support provided to JITF, thereby impacting JSAW’s leverage and debt coverage indicators.

Disclosure - I am invested in the company

[Mohit_baid]

Credit rating by CARE ratings ltd.

[Mohit_baid]

Exceptional growth and resilience shown by the company! Kudos to the promoters for being transparent and walking the talk.

Q2FY24

YoY
Sales +35%
Profit +1595%

QoQ
Sales +24%
Profit +47%

: Promoter holding gradually went up from 63% to 63.26%.
: Profit margins up from single digit to a sustained double-digit.
: FII holding up from 11% to 17.71%.
: DII holding up from 0.97% to 1.67%
: PE at a 1-year low but stock price at a lifetime high.

a38a8e39-0b61-4c26-bab8-f9504e7dc742.pdf

Disclosure - Invested

[chikspat]

Concall Highlights:
This year is likely to be better then last year, last year was best.
Subsidiaries around the world start contributing and it likely to continue.
It is not flash in the pan quarter, trend should be similar for 24 months. Enough demand and factors to suggest company arrived at different level of fundamental strength.
Debt reduction is not flash pan, Debt is keep in check. Rating is AA, stable. Among the best rated in peers.
Most diversified portfolio in world, for pipes and tubes segment.
Have some value added products.
Single SAP platform across the world.
Demand:
Oil and gas, jal jivan plan, defense, nuclear, power, sugar etc. supply to all industries.
3rd and 4th quarters have more revenue. Exports will remain between 30 to 40% of order book.
EBIDTA increased from 11 to 16% from last year.
Pipe demands to grow at 10% to 15%. There is space for new players.

Order book:
1.4 billion $ and keep at this level, it is sweet spot for company. Do not do trading. With sales funnel, growth will be achieved by replenishing orders quickly. Moving to value added products due to less competition, vendor qualification is hard for quality.
Capacity:
Pipes 2.5 million Tons in domestic, Pellets 1.7 million Tons, Abdu Dhabi 300K Tons.
Hunter JV: Waiting for API license, expected by Dec 2023. the JV will be break even.
started trails. Not in production. Very High margin and premium products. Satwana running at 60 to 70%, it will be increase by 20 to 25% by adding balancing. Next year it will be at 80%.

Cash:
Not looking for major capex, M&A. Cash generated will be conserved, shared with share holder, to reduce debt. Will use in working capital so debt will reduce.

War:
Abu Dhabi facility do not see any slowdown, exports 33 countries in MENA region. War do not have any impact as of now, if it get contained.
Due to Ukraine-Russia war, Europe looks at India for pipe supply. As Ukraine can not supply.

Coking Coal:
Price increased from 230$ to 340$ in last two months.
Mitigation: Movement of price is not sharp, not likely to be volatile. Learning from past experience, try to hedge and add price variation clause with governments. Lot of contracts succeeded. Technology modification, adding PCI will reduce cost.

https://www.jindalsaw.com/audio/MFG0220231027149594.mp3

Disclosure: Invested

[Abid_Amir]

Please can someone elaborate on what basis should we plan our exit in this stock, how to keep a track of it and plan your exit as it is cyclical.
Thank you.

[Mohit_baid]

Markets finally bridging the huge valuation gap that was created after the Q2FY24 results.

[jeewangarg]

Some case is going on with NTPC. Following is the information I got it from Twitter

https://twitter.com/Anuragag06/status/1734500028012437695

Also would like to highlight that the ntpc vs Jindal saw case is on 12th December so that will be a key event to watch out for. If Jindal saw wins the case it could garner them 1100cr +

[jeewangarg]

@Mohit_baid How you see the recent QIP.

Is it good or Bad for shareholders/company

[jeewangarg]

Any news/update on API License

We can expect good numbers from jindalsaw today i.e 16Jan 2024 (3QFy24)

https://twitter.com/nid_rockz/status/1746835745875374181

Be cautious (Day Traders), Because result will be declared during market hours

Disc: Invested

[Abid_Amir]

Extremely strong results reported by Jindal Saw as management said in the last concall.

[Mohit_baid]

A sight that soothes every investor’s eyes.

PE keeps falling

Price keeps rising

[chikspat]

Operational Highlights:

1. Product Mix:

• Iron & Steel Pipes and Pellets.
• Natural hedge against volatile commodity market conditions.

2. Production and Sales Breakup (Q3 FY24):

• Iron & Steel Pipes: Production - 4,50,300 MT, Sales - 4,42,800 MT.
• Pellets: Production - 3,86,900 MT, Sales - 3,87,800 MT.

Order Book Position:

1. Total Order Book: ~US$ 1.49 billion (Iron & Steel Pipes: US$ 1,474 million, Pellet: US$ 14 million).
2. Global Market Orders: ~35% of orders.
3. Order Visibility: Approximately three quarters.

Financing and Liquidity:

1. Net Institutional Debt (Standalone): ~Rs. 39,190 million (as of December 31, 2023).
2. Credit Ratings: CARE A1+ (Short-term), CARE AA (Long-term, Outlook Stable).

Other Highlights:

1. Joint Venture - Jindal Hunting Energy Services Limited:

• Establishing India’s first premium Oil Country Tubular Goods (OCTG) threading facility.

2. UAE Operations:

• Jindal Saw Gulf LLC (UAE subsidiary) witnessed higher sales of DI Pipes.

3. Legal Matters:

• 27th January 2019, the final arbitration award was pronounced by the Hon’ble Arbitral Tribunal in favor of JITF, allowing various claims to the tune of Rs. 1,891 crores plus interest and applicable taxes. At present, NTPC and Jindal ITF have filed petitions which are being heard by the Hon’ble High Court of Delhi. In a hearing on 20th Dec 2023, substantial arguments have been completed by NTPC. The next hearing is scheduled for 14th and 15th February,2024.
• JSAW has filed the Scheme of amalgamation of Jindal Quality Tubular Limited (“JQTL”), Jindal Tubular (India) Limited (“JTIL”) and Jindal Fittings Limited (“JFL”) with NCLT, Allahabad bench for their approval. Shareholders and creditors of Jindal Saw Limited and all the merging entities have already approved the Scheme. The same is subject to the approval of Hon’ble NCLT Allahabad Bench. The next hearing is scheduled for 1st February,2024.

4. Outlook:
   The steel tubes market is driven by global industrial growth and urbanization, particularly in Asia-Pacific and the Middle East. Increased demand arises from construction, automotive, and oil and gas industries. Government investments in infrastructure, including transportation and energy projects, fuel the demand. The Middle East, influenced by the oil and gas sector, sees significant investments in infrastructure, smart city developments, and transportation networks, contributing to steel tube demand. In India, expanding oil and gas exploration, government water projects, and rural development initiatives create opportunities for pipe-makers. Geopolitical adversities in the Gulf region are not expected to impact the long-term growth outlook.

Disclosure: Invested

[Abid_Amir]

Con-call Highlights

Financial Performance:

• Standalone top line: Rs. 4786 crores
• EBITDA: Rs. 890 crores
• PBT: Rs. 619 crores
• Consolidated EBITDA: Rs. 1030 crores
• Gross income: Rs. 5697 crores
• PBT: Rs. 700 crores
• Order book: 1.4 billion
• Debt profile: GSR net debt reduced from 4,200 to 3,900
• Working capital utilization expected to go down
• QIP of Rs. 1000 crores planned for debt reduction
• Anticipated growth in revenue from Rs. 20,000 crores to Rs. 25,000 crores without significant deficit

Current Operational Performance:

• Water sector contributes approximately 68% of revenue, oil and gas 28%, and industrial sector 4-5%
• Well-balanced diversification between domestic and export markets
• Abu Dhabi facility operating at a high capacity utilization of over 80%
• Abu Dhabi facility expected to produce around 63,000 metric tons per quarter
• Jindal Saw is not directly competing with China due to differences in market segments and quality standards
• Order book follows a similar pattern to revenue distribution, with 65% domestic and 35% export
• Significant demand from MENA region for both water and oil and gas segments
• No significant demand from the American market for large diameter and GI products

Future Outlook:

• Anticipated strong performance in the next six months due to a robust order book and stable commodity prices
• Expectation of settling down of EBITDA margin from the current 18.6%
• Capacity expected to increase from 2 to 3.5 million tons per annum at the Patwara facility
• Expectation of profitable operation for the joint venture in the first year of operation
• Focus on high-value added products in the stainless steel segment
• Anticipated growth in revenue from Rs. 20,000 crores to Rs. 25,000 crores without significant deficit

Concerns:

• Potential disruptions in transportation routes due to geopolitical tensions in the Red Sea and around Iran
• Uncertainty regarding the outcome of ongoing legal proceedings

Other Points:

• No significant competition from China due to differences in market segments and quality standards
• Order book distribution follows a similar pattern to revenue distribution, with a focus on the MENA region for both water and oil and gas segments
• No significant demand from the American market for large diameter and GI products
• Anticipated strong performance in the next six months due to a robust order book and stable commodity prices
• Capacity expected to increase from 2 to 3.5 million tons per annum at the Patwara facility
• Expectation of profitable operation for the joint venture in the first year of operation
• Focus on high-value added products in the stainless steel segment

[anmol_satyam]

Jindal saw concall