ValuePickr Forum

Is it Right Time to Call for Bottom?

Simple Analysis for bigger Picture

My view point on Index

  1. Market still not a safe heaven for investor
    2.Bottom formation still not visible
    3.Its Safer to enter in the mid of the trend .
    4.According to channeling technique and NEO wave logic we are in second corrective , we may see a rally till upper band of channel ie . till 7900 + mark , but don’t be under impression of bottom.
    5.Time wise June -July 2016 and price wise 6850-6300 is range .
    6.Have spend years to understand Neo wave but still work Under guidance .
    7.Index may form temporary low between 25th jan to 6 th feb 2016 for a X wave up till higher band of channel .
  2. Will Update once we are in end of 3rd correction , and will be witnessing multiyear bull market .

Its time to pick and understand the value and growth cos and build 5-10 bagger stocks for minimum 6 year horizon.

Happy investing .

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Nice analysis on this subject by Nooresh Mirani/ Ankit Chaudhary posted recently.

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@ajit001

as per channeling technique till now bottom looks at 7200-7240, unless it is broken and these levels also concordant with the weekly and monthly support and channeling also supports that.

Fundamentally still market expensive.

From here market needs to cross 7620 and sustain above that to reach 8000 where the upper channel trend line coincides.

But below 7200-7240 you are right that again 6600-6800 levels are concordant with weekly,monthly levels and that could be the bottom.

Regarding Neo wave analysis I don’t understand it ( tried but very difficult to understand the minor waves, banged my head in vain.

Would like to exchange the analysis and your knowledge.

These charting techniques are old and one has to take a view for about 100 or so points. Further, the entire crowd knows the Chart and RSI technique. Big operators who move the market dont use these techniques. They use the FIBO levels for swing trading.

Again, it is a downward trend channel and no bottom is established unless the upper channel is breached with decisiveness. Till then , saying a bottom is not correct. But one can call this temporary bottom or short term bottom.

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Again, one cannot be accurate in drawing trend lines and bound to make errors. Horizontal lines are always better. May be these type of charts give a broad overview of the market and cannot be used for trading. Definitely not for investing.

Big operators have moved away from these charting techniques and they dont use these for their trading positions.

The Nifty is around the same levels after 20 months of the change in government but there are literally 100s of companies whose market cap has become 2x-10x in the same period (even after including this correction).

Investors with a long term mindset should basically look at buying good businesses with a decent MoS. Don’t think it really matters what phase the market is in as companies meeting the above criteria shouldn’t correct very sharply. In the unlikely event they fall a lot, those are merely MTM losses and the inherent characteristics of the business would win in the long term.

For long term investors, predicting market bottoms is a futile exercise IMHO.

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Dear All,

Please try to understand , the nature and behavior of market at tops bottoms and when they in consolidation period. And also try to understand how well the time is consumed during these scenarios . I personally don’t think that we need to look what Big"s are doing or which tools they use .
Please focus on our own behavior , Risk management and more important on mind set .
I am focused on my own analysis , and getting better on my trades, learning from trade dairies is more important .
For me everything other that my system and set up is noise.
I can bet Top analyst at least in India Fails to understand and do not accept failure during initial stage . Analysis is all about gauging Human behavior , and with the help of Scientific and statistical tool we convert human error in to trading opportunity.

Time will manifest every thing .

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Still afraid of 2008 nightmare i had. Could any one here suggest some stocks which may not drop very badly even if nifty fall too much.

If you are sure of 2008 repeating nothing like being in cash 100% -

In fact most of us have that fear in mind. As long as majority of them have that fear, market will not fall like 2008. It will do it sometime in future IF and WHEN everyone is greed and not concerned or thinking about market crash.

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nifty.pdf (224.1 KB)

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whats your medium term view

@reacher
I have mentioned my medium term view if you read my main post its up to 7900

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Any new high is possible only above 7630. The trend is down and dont try to catch the falling knife. There are no indications of bottoming out.

thanks for sharing - so max 7900 and then again break recent lows to settle at 6850-6300 is this is your prognosis .

yes i do mean you got me right

Dear Ajit ji,

What was your view on the nifty when it was near 8800-9000. Do you have a twitter Id or a blog where we can verify your view at that point of time.

Thanks

@Vijayk

my face book time line
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=949957805016825&set=a.210652658947347.57399.100000078429170&type=3&theater

My blog

@Vijayk
I appreciate your interest in technical analysis .
I would also like to bring to your notice that as a trader i would find opportunistic trade . And an an analyst the scenario will be different altogether .
Investors will trade differently .

So an a analyst i was clear that we have started our downward journey some where near 15th March 2015 . It doesn’t mean that i did not long until now . I too had many failure trades but with respect to my rules and system , because of which I am still in the game on positive note .

My Facebook time line
https://www.facebook.com/bwithtrend/photos/a.614502241925039.1073741829.603482789693651/1003147243060535/?type=3&theater

My blog

My Facebook Page

https://www.facebook.com/bwithtrend/timeline

With all due respect,
You recommended to add SBI in may 2015 with a 1.5 years view http://bwithtrend.blogspot.in/2015/05/will-history-repeat.html?m=1

You also saw inverse head and shoulders in Nifty in may 2015 http://bwithtrend.blogspot.in/2015/05/time-to-go-long.html?m=1

What’s the hit rate of your trading calls over past 2 years?

Thank you