You will find two major type of individual
And i fall in to 2 nd category ,my experience of trading is just one year 3 month , it would be unfair if i say i have rich experience with high accuracy.
I have very low accuracy with high risk management and high trade management .
if i can express in terms of percentage it is hardly 60%-55% .I feel quite enough to make CAGR of 18 %-20% annually .
This forum is not meant for purely trading calls on the index. Request @adminph2 to check if this thread is in sync with valuepickr principles.
Thank you
The X wave what i was expecting till 7900 turned out to be small , which means selling has been intensified and giving me lot of confidence to build long term portfolio . I am aware that the audience here are not trader . But i feel that if one is aware of Barometer here in our case Nifty is the major barometer it will be help full for us , which may enhance our decision making skills .
didnt get it… are you saying the downside is limited now?
Yes ,i fell very soon we may reach the entry point .I will post here but now time to do lot of research about opportunistic stock . We must have ready list of 20-50 stock . Both growth and Value model. so that we can enter with precision .
IMHO
As per my analysis and system, Nifty can make a temporary bottom @ 7150. Probability is high. We need to see how far the bounce from 7150 goes to see whether is a temp bottom or reversal.
To give an example , I bought Torntpharma now in a small quantity for investment and a good qty as a tradeable qty to book out when Nifty faces resistance. Since market is downtrending , it is not advisable to invest large sums of money as NOBODY CAN ESTABLISH BOTTOM AND NOBODY CAN CATCH THE BOTTOM EXCEPT BIG INVESTORS OR OPERATORS.
NIFTY CAN BOUNCE FROM 7150 If not i will book loss in Tradeable qty.
I hope I have explained how to deal with present markets.
Rgds
What percentage of cash you are having in your pf now?
I request please read my first post , and i am updating it , on weekly basis. And please dont challenge any ones intellect , lets share knowledge and insight and prosper . Just take away good findings , renaming leave it. Healthy discussion are welcome , but offensive statement are just a wast of time
Please read (old post)
My view point on Index
Its time to pick and understand the value and growth cos and build 5-10 bagger stocks for minimum 6 year horizon.
Happy investing .
I know everyone looks here at technical analysis
What about fundamentals
1-percentage of gdp, we still have some room. In 2007/8 market capitalisation was about 100+% of gdp. Today I think it’s around 70%
2-ratio to property prices. Bse property index is all time low. Demand for new properties seem low. If you consider this than stock market is overvalued
Most of the time corrections mirror US markets
The U.S. Data suggests correction there is over. Over is a wrong word. Correction is delayed is probably the right word.
I woul closely watch fed on their interest rate policy as correction is due but delayed because companies enjoy low cost of capital
Well, as a Economics/Finance guy, I would like to add a few points in here.
The QE money has been pumped in and SPX is at an inflated level which is artificial, once a mild sneeze happens, we can see how the domino effect will be. There is too much leverage in the system, deleveraging akin to 2008-09 is ruled out but we can see some amount of risk off sentiment like in Feb anytime.
China is just delaying the inevitable, they cannot sustain it. For how long can they regulate property markets, impose indefinite short selling bans and not allow people to convert Yuan/Renminbi beyond a limit.
The Brexit situation - This is becoming a big thing for the Euro zone, near 40% of $5Tn global Forex trade happens through London and the implications of an exit will be catastrophic.
Commodity Cycle - Oil and Base Metals are going no where and there is still a lot of overcapacity in the world that needs to go and few companies need to go bankrupt, there is still pain in here and we need to see some blood.
@vibs6615 and to every one , i am glad to know that investor can take advantage of technical analysis if they use to see the things as they are, and not as we want . But i realised that this forum is not about technical centric , its about finding the quality businesses , and i have received , intimation from other member not to have pure technical discussion whic may mislead this forum . And i too believe in that . so i request interested member to mail me , and if i get time would love to share my technical updates .
But this forum is mind boggling and i see passionate people . so opted to be quite . and learn as much as i can from this forum .
Hi Ajit I find your inputs super helpful. Pls add me to your mail list if you have one. Thanks!
There is nothing wrong with technical analysis as long as one is not giving day trading tips or buy sell advice based on it. TA for understanding the market situation is fine, in my opinion.
