So for the benefit of everybody I would breifely explain the two type of auction and then maybe share my view, just to let everybody now I am sharing opinion which might not be factual so please verify.
So currently the closed envelope auctions are being followed so what happens is every body bids privately and nobody knows what others have bid. It is like suzlon sends their bid in a closed envelope to SECI.
Since currently the demand is very high, every body is bidding higher and auctions are going half subscribed + prices are increasing.
Now think about it this way, government is burning their money so that OEM can make more profit. I also think this way government has an X target of green energy which is very critical, so they want to reach there regardless of the composition. If wind is doing good they will allocate more capital to wind if solar is doing good they will allocate more capital there.
This is one of the latest auction of GUVNL out of 500MW only 200 got qualified
This is one of the auction from last year out of 1.2GW only 600MW got qualified, so the problem is real, and government will definitely try to find a solution to it
Here I posted a real reverse bidding example, just go through the two images in the beginning of the post. So everybody can see what others are bidding, you bid once, then you rebind, so the competition becomes intense and everybody has FOMO to get the project.
This was the biggest reason for the underperformance of wind industry post 2016-17
@Nafas_Muhammad you made a valid point, but post 2025 we will have the ISTS cost coming and will increase slowly, so the retail market right now is in a hurry to complete their projects prior to 2025, hece you can see good composition of retail in wind players order book
Another major positive from 2016 is debt for wind OEM
But I have a theory government has to do good capital allocation so till now their focus was on wind so the demand was huge but if solar does good they can shift their focus, like initially they can do more of hybrid projects and then maybe once storage cost is low they can even stop hybrid. Anyway if government does more hybrid that mean standalone projects would be decreasing.
This is from an article today, so another way of thinking is why would government want to put this industry again into trouble after they have put so much effort on reviving it.
Quite confusing, just check the risk reward of wind right now and take a call