May be the 5G prospects should be taken with a pinch of salt 
Note: I am not an expert in this area. Just came across this when researching.
Given the source of the link “China Observer”, one should be careful of what they’re putting out. That part of pushing customers to 5G is similar to what most Telcos do world over. And it’s a fact that 5G would effectively need higher # of towers (hint: that’s what Indus towers in India is claiming is their future growth), so claiming that as a downside is problematic. Also, skipping to 6G which will also use similar spectrum ranges will come with the same problems. One of the things that the video did not mention was that 30% of the patents in 5G space are held by Chinese companies.
So, yes there are dangers in 5G from a economic rollout POV but that wont go away for 6G or even 4G. Voda has not got its 4G rollout done completely because they didnt want to invest. Got clobbered.
And remember, China is doing 5G now, the experience of which will help them in 6G and other telecom standards foray.
Yep. Agree with your viewpoints @sivaram . Irrespective of 5G or 6G, if we go by general physics that higher bandwidth needs higher frequency and higher frequency attenuates in short distances, then it inevitably leads to requirement of more towers to maintain signal density.
While it is viable for cities due to high density of population, it becomes difficult to implement in rural areas. At the end, the cost of installing the tower should be passed on to the customer and that is the key factor deciding 5G rollout than govt mandated plans in China. IMHO, the overall pace of rollout will be slower in India and the volume of business from 5G need to be evaluated carefully.
A little more insightful report below from PwC on (US) customer side of view:
IIT Chennai just finished a basic test of 5G.
Anyways Indus is trading at 10% earning so no growth is in price. Any growth would be icing on the cake.
Their sales in March 2021 were 13954 which increased to 27717 in March 2022. Can anyone please explain to me the reason for this sudden jump in the sales of Indus tower? Is it some one-time business, as I felt the market has not completely reacted to this news?
merger with infratel
Read more at: 5G Spectrum: Adani Plans Surprise Telecom Foray; Jio, Airtel And Vodafone To Also Take Part In Auctions
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If this is true it could be great for Indus Towers.
The Group said the spectrum will be used to create a private network to support its businesses from airports to power.
This indicates it would be used for internal projects only. Similar to what companies like GAIL and OIL did during the earlier auctions.
it looks great valuation wise too as trading lower than its historic pe multiple, a great business to get into with decent Dividend Yield and lower debt looks wonderful
p.s. views are personal
Yes agree and i would say good observation but if we we see Dividend Yield (its as good as FD) so to me a decent bargain
Dividends can get impacted if Vodafone Idea is not able to pay. Largest shareholder is largest customer(if we ignore VIL, only customer). Such companies always attract discount to standard valuation
even assuming VIL goes bust… some one will pick up the company(VIL) in a bankrupcy for peanuts…one time write off…and back to business… i believe all the potential bad things are alredy discounted…
Invested: hence biased
a gov take over would be even better (gov can grab the entire stake for their dues) if it still does not improve the finaces then VI can be kicked out of the towers to stop the bleeding and start marketing freely to JIO when 5G does arrive… and a VI collapse will creates room for new player to enter the market attracted by higer margins… there is optionality in this…
The story is unfolding. First the resignation of MD a few days before the announcement of result and now a cool provision of 1232.6 Crore! recognised against the outstanding receivables from Vodafone Idea. This is a dangerous place to be in.
I believe the stock could fall significantly from current levels but the interesting dilemma is that the entire network back bone of Airtel is also provided by the same company.
Another important factor to consider is the trend of revenue per tower as pasted below:
I believe this drop is primarily on account of revised agreement signed with Airtel during the last quarter. In short Indus revenue and margins seems to have peaked out by March 2022.
See the results here.
Disclosure: Invested - consideirng an exit.
Edit: Exited at todays open.
Alternative view —
Since the MD is going, it’s better to do kitchen sinking before rather than leaving it for new one, as often happens with banks.
So the new MD can start with a clean state.
Vodafone has spent 19k Cr in recently concluded auction.
So IMHO, picture abhi baaki hai !