Below are the actual numbers from IEX website
| Months | Contract Type | Total Traded Volume (MWh) | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug-21 | Intra Day | 8972 | 498,272 |
| Day Ahead Contingency | 108108 | ||
| Daily | 381192 | ||
| Sep-21 | Intra Day | 534 | 198,357 |
| Day Ahead Contingency | 68703 | ||
| Daily | 129120 | ||
| Oct-21 | Intra Day | 1280 | 298,110 |
| Day Ahead Contingency | 156670 | ||
| Daily | 140160 | ||
| Nov-21 | Intra Day | 150 | 292,103 |
| Day Ahead Contingency | 107153 | ||
| Daily | 184800 |
thanks for correcting it.
even then isnt the fall is still concerning? Basically 2 out of the 3 months have passed but the revenue 36% of the last quarter. All Iām trying to understand is why the numbers have fallen is it a seasonal factor or something more
| Oct-Novā21 | Intra Day | 1,430 |
|---|---|---|
| Day Ahead Contingency | 2,63,823 | |
| Daily | 3,24,960 | |
| Total | 5,90,213 |
Have you included REC revenue also while calculating revenue for this quarter?
IMO REC trading can be gamechanger for IEX . Maybe due to REC trading ,volumes have been low in other segments . These are only my assumptions ,views invited from others.
What I look at is total volume traded. Hereās the data from Jan-20 for total volume traded. Doesnāt include Novā21 data. Orange bars is Real Time Market volumes. Volumes is in MU, e.g. Octā21 total volume is 9165 MU.
Distributed Energy Resource concept like Voltus if implemented in India IEX may benefit because they are providing physical delivery of electricity.
https://www.voltus.co/
I just looked for IEX volume data. It didnt give REC data on that tab. We can easily estimate the monthly or quarterly revenue using the traded volumes.
Please go through below YouTube video by Mohnish Pabrai where he explains the business model of IEX.
All of his videos are worth watching, but PLEASE DO watch from 54 minutes on the timeline, if you are short of time.
Invested since 120 levels (pre-bonus) and have averaged all my holdings around 88 ( post-bonus) & Biased (as dont find any other business with such NPM & ROCE)
Regards,
Dr. Vikas
Competition on the way. Can fellow VP members share their views on how this going to impact IEX down the line.
Yes. This is bound to happen. Government will NEVER allow such Monopoly. Look at Telecom - Govt. is making serious effort to help Vodafone survive.
But in Energy Exchange business, with the massive network effect, Great Technology and good management, it will be difficult to dethrone IEX.
My personal guess is it this will play out either like NSE & BSE or Say Credit rating business, where CRISIL maybe half of the industry and rest of them the remaining half.
So here onwards, the appreciation in stock price looks difficult. Maybe it will fall / go in time-correction.
I am biased as I was lucky to average IEX below Rs.100 ( post-Bonus)
So will keep on holding (maybe) till my retirement which is still 20 years away.
For main 2 reasons- the HUGE size of Opportunity and VERY LONG RUNWAY.
These are kind of Bharat Shah & Mohnish Pabraiās words respectively.
I copied this scrip form Mohnish Pabrai and will ALWAYS BE very Thankful to him. ( I didnāt copy the RAIN Ind, as it was out of my circle of competence)
Hope this is useful.
Regards,
Dr. Vikas
I think He exited from IEX not sure
In Qtr. ending March 2020, he lowered the position. Again in June 2020 qtr, the position may be lower than 1% , hence not showing. Owing to this fact I could not invest in this scrip during that qtr. Unable to get the reasons for his disinvestment.
Yes. Its true. I first entered in IEX by following his stock holdings. And he did get out of it, ābut luckilyā , I continued to hold it as I didnāt find any other business with such great NPM & ROCEs.
Please do WATCH the above shared video ( few posts above ) by me of Mohnish Pabrai where he says he has again invested in it.
Here I realised First Hand not to follow any Big Investor just blindly and do use your own thinking and mainly conviction. Use it as only one of the checklist criteria.
Regards,
Dr. Vikas
Seed for growth of IEX actually lies in the increasing cost of maintenance and deration of thermal generation power plants. as the medium term and long term power purchase agreements came closer to expire its completely IEX gain.
Recent coal crisis is the example of situation that can happen in the near future as coal mining has its own limitation. more the PPA get expire and thermal power plant get closed which ultimately increase the IEX volume. IEX loves unpredictability in power generation. more we shift towards solar energy or other renewables more short term PPA will be there. you can easily evaluate the Europe energy crisis that as the migration towards renewables increases volumes trade in exchanges gets multi-folds. energy exchanges are like toll based business.
IEX is way ahead from its peers in terms of tech and advanced machinery. Recent introduction of MILP based algorithm enables it to discover prices which are 30-40% less as compared to its peers like PTC, PXIL or tata trading cos or other trading platform. this is the real thing which makes it real monopoly. for govt PSU or othet cos its very much difficult to match its price discovery as it takes huge fixed cost. only a government regulation change can make things adverse for IEX and this might finish other players.
short term power purchase currently the main revenue source for IEX. now after supream court judgement IEX can trade in long duration PPA. which increased its playing field of 6% of total power consumption to 25%. pond size is now 4X and fish is still the same size.
MBED is the other thing which is in government ambition to abolish all PPA and procure every unit of electricity from exchnage. that thing yet to unlock and might take 5-10-15 years to play.
Key points ,faster long term PPA expires / terminate , more the IEX will grow , long term PPA which are at higher value are , not in interest of Govt (due higher tariff politics ) or even private players ( import high grade international coal its price ) affecting profit margin (ex shut down of Tata coal plant). Market size is too big if two or three new players will be absorbed . As non renewable energy share portion is increasing In totality, in same proportion IEX share portion will increase .
The above premises about IEX volumes does not factor in end buyer behaviour at all. The moment volatility creates price surges which is ultimately passed on to consumers, there will be regulation to bring in long term PPA with power gen units to stabilise prices. After all, for a power starved country with a key component to inflation driver, there will be political intervention.
As of now, DISCOMS are not paying on time which is why the Power ministry asked state discoms to switch to day and day ahead. If the price surges are too much, theyāll revert to PPAs and stop short term trading
Not sure if private capacities will like to get into long term PPA with DISCOMS knowing their track record. If someone can share the recent data on PPAs it could corroborate with ground situation.
Have look at the case study prepared by IEX on how to approach PPA, article is bit old but still very much relevant.
31_03_2016IEX-Article.pdf (iexindia.com)
I donāt think all terminated PPAs will come to exchange but even if variable component over the base demands comes it will be still add significant growth to short term market. Also LDC products would also help in meeting some demand instead of PPAs. Hoping some development in near term on this