Is this a special situation case like indiabulls real estate? Sameer gehlaut promotor holding will be around 6% and will be declassified as promotor. Name of the company will be changed and whole company will be a professionally managed company. There is no apple to apple comparison between other housing finance companies like aavas , aptus , hdfc which is having P/B of above 3 and indiabulls housing having .7 . But the like of blackstone , Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (ADIA) as the share purchaser and recently fund house initiated fresh buying into stock is putting some confidence
Recent changes in indiabulls shows they are completely changing their business model both on retail and wholesale front
In Recent concall after Sameer block deal news provides many details how they are going to work hereafter
They understand that they cannot compete with banks in future and clearly shifting business model
Disc: Invested
NOMURA SINGAPORE LIMITED - ODI exits its investments in India bulls real estate.
Most of the other Mutual funds and FIIs have increased their stake.
Q3 is kind of flat with not much change in AUM and slight increase in NPA. One thing to track is there co lending ( as of now it is well on track IMO) , AIF funds and whether blackstone or other partners will come into board
Q4 remain in the same line , AUM & profit is flattish colending is improving and gearing ratio came from 7 to 2 times now . Share price is below half of book value . Management guidance
What is your outake on this stock,i find it extremely undervalued , change in promoter group might help in borrowing at lower rates and hdfc tie-up will also help reduce npas going further but i still have my doubts if this doesnât become the next dhfl or something is hidden,i also work in real estate and no one who took loans from indiabulls is happy with the service and hidden charges these guys charged.
Whats your outlook in the stock?
Still I am not convinced with the management. Every time Gagan says we are back and growth will happen but at the end I still donât know the reason on why they are hell bent in reducing the wholesale book. And now they planned to again go with whole sale book. Even though Sameer is out now, Top management remains same. Optically when someone see their reported numbers, its obivously cheap. But not sure what cooking inside. Still trust factor is not back
I have 1% of portfolio in Indiabulls. But still i am not convinced enough to increase it to 5%
Management is concerned about the share price and want to have 1 P/B . Overall kind of average and stable quarter
One of my concern which still i am not able to understand is the issuance of two tranches of FCCB. Even without the FCCB(considering FCCB not converted), company still has ample capital adequacy ratio. These FCCB are issued with conversion rate around rs.240 per share.
If we take this quarter Q1FY23, company stock price ranged from approx. 90-160. But still 10 million dollar worth of FCCBs are converted to equity at conversion rate around 240. this happened Q4FY22 also. Why the bondholder is converting the bond when current market price at lower range. Instead if the same bondholder decided to keep it as bond, he would have earned 2.25% interest rate for 10 million dollars.
Really curious to know about the bondholder who is doing conversion now
I find another strange thing in indiabulls.
Till FY19, Asset stage classification looks pretty normal. Right from FY20, their stage 2 shotup to 30%. Irony is these stage 2 remains in 30% for 3 full year.
Just for comparison, if we take worst performing peers like LIC HF, PNB Housing, Repco, these companies have higher NPA, but their stage 1 is >80% at all these years. Stage 2 is <10% for all years.
Its strange for a company that almost 3 years where 1 in every 3 loan is delinquent for more than a month, but only minuscule loans ended up 3 month delinquent.
Disc: Invested
Nice to see some cash infusion. Was it public knowledge that IBHF held this land parcel as collateral? Are there more such land parcels?
Disc. Invested
promoter hold just 10% and 52% is with public - what could be the reason? Sorry I dont have background, thus my Q.
Sameer has sold his stake and holds less than 10%. Company is in process of de promotorization and if it happens lic along with other institutions will be largest shareholder .
What would be the dilution from the current equity base?
At what price the FCCB will be converted to equity?
How this conversion will affect the existing equity investors?
It is good if they convertâŚi think all of the issuance, conversion price is >200/share (in one of the issuance, it is around 242/share) though you need refer issuance documents so it is good for all but it is highly doubted if price remain at current level.
For any lending company it is alway good sign if lender convert debt to equity it shows confidence but here I am not quite sure if FCCB holder opt for conversion.
Not sure why company is taking about FCCB now. Company has two tranches of FCCB, both are due only on 2026. Coversion price is 230 and 240 rupees per share.
Definitely they will not convert, considering current price
Hi,
Where can the above numbers be found? Indiabulls claiming that Stage 2 loans have reduced to 6-7% of AUM now. Is a live tracker of this information available somewhere?
We cannot get this live. In past I found this in annual report and for this quarter they disclosed in investor presentation
Thanks, while going through there report yesterday, I also found this data.
This is such an opaque industry. We should have the knowledge of which companies they have extended loans to but we have no data available!! It looks cheap based on book value, but there is no way of knowing without full data available. There CEO claims book value is as real as it gets, can only increase from here, but how to trust those words, when he says he cant disclose which projects are stuck, how much loan is extended to whom? Who were these 20k crore of npa level 2 which are not there now!! Too many questions, very few answers.