forgot to mention that i utilised todays bounce to exit jb chem.
Hitesh Bhai,
31% pharma…you are definitely exploiting your edge in Lynch style 
Surprised a bit on complete exit in Ajanta.
My Kaveri allocation has run up to 22% due to price run-up. Is it a good idea to wait till results for partial exit especially due to delayed monsoons and possibility of stretched sowing season?
Isn’t it a good time to have more allocation for rate sensitives in the portfolio?
Cheers
Vinod
Hitesh Bhai
Thank you for sharing your current portfolio
One small query, how you plan your exit , is it based on 1) Fundamental weakness or 2) based Technical weakness in charts , or 3)Relative good opportunity in other stocks.
Let say if we are exiting based on points (2) and (3), then will there be a chance of missing some big opportunity in long term if point (1) is not reason for exit. How you basically balance all these points… I am bit confused in exitstrategy, your expertise should help me out Thanks.
sir any specific reason for exiting page
regarding ajanta, the fact is post q2 fy 13 results, i was getting a chance to offload in the bounce witnessed. what i am worried about is lack of clarity on tax related matters. in fact i would be glad to load up if these matters are cleared. Most of the times buying and selling decisions for me is all or none so I usually dont go too much for accumulation or gradual selling unless it is a purely technical pick.
kaveri i think you can reduce holding to bring it back to comfortable levels.
rate sensitives do make sense.
zulfi,
page to me seems to be fairly valued with upsides limited in percentage terms in the immediate future.
exitstrategy, Thanks.
If i have bought the stock on technical basis the exit is on technical basis.
If on fundamental basis, then if the stock is overvalued according to me then i exit it or else if I find a better opportunity to replace the existing stock then i exit.
regarding balancing e.g in my portfolio, the top few stocks like kaveri, unichem , mayur etc represent long term compounding stocks.
Anybody tracking hexaware technologies?
Post its 9M results for Sep 12, stock has done eps of around 8.8 and full year likely to be around 11.5-12.
debt free. with cash and eq of around 403 crors
ROE close to 28%.
Three dividends declared till date of rs 1.5, 1.5 and now 1.2 which takes total dividend to rs 4.2 per share. full year i expect to be around 5.5 to 6 which at cmp of 111 gives a dividend yield of close to 4.5-5%
Company has been consistently growing and now seems to be in the 20-30 cagr category.
Looks like a no brainer looking at cash rich company with high div payout(55%) and good return ratios. Only thing holding it back is probably it is ranked along other mid cap software companies where they are accorded a PE of around 10 or so.
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Hex aware is specially strong in Peoplesoft projects.
Any views on recent supreme court wanting price control on Indian drug cos n how it will impact Unichem
Hitesh Bhai,
Since the price has dropped below the blue dotted line at 155 has the trend changed?
I see you have invested 5% of your portfolio, was that a fundamental call?
Cheers
Vinod
vinod
shasun is a both a technical and fundamental call. company is likely to emerge as a big formulation player in 2-3 years time frame. Plus currently it is a big player in api of brufen, anticonvulsants etc. U can refer to a report on initiating coverage on shasun by indianivesh at indianivesh.in
)+ Point for shasun pharma
Mygrandfathertake 2 dailycapsuleof bruphen form last 25 years.
Good one Gaurav… now that should realty tilt the scale in favor of Shasun!
Hitesh Bhai,
The comparison table b/w Shasun and Ajanta in the indianivesh report is interesting.
Both cos have similar mkt cap, but Shasun has 50% more expected sales in Fy13. But due to inferior margins there is no difference in profits. Reminds me of what Alembic management told about API business.
Shasun has higher ROE probably due slightly higher liverage. Valuation also looks better for Shasun.
And more chances of surprise upswings due to the under trial drungs potential?
This one looks like a perfect replacement for Ajanta!
Thank You
Vinod
Hitesh Bhai,
What is your view on Bilt ?
I thought it was one of your technical picks.
Regards
nadakarni,
BIlt remains in uptrend begun from 19.50 odd levels
I had booked my profits at around 21.50 to 22 levels.
When I read your write up regarding Hexaware, I emailed a friend, an ex-employee of Hexaware. This is what he has to say about the company and the promoter.
not much beyond this that i can think of; the company’s perenially on the rumour mill of being sold but Atul’s a shrewd guy, he will want high valuations which i think arent happening in this market. on its own, the engines are running well now for the last year and a half & growth is coming in. Would i invest in it? not too sure; i think the stock’s grown quite a bit in the last couple of years and personally im not sure how much further it will go.mid cap IT companies are always going to be heavily dependent on the economic cycle - if the recession in Europe & US worsens they will suffer much more than the larger ones because they depend more on discretionary spend (change the business kind of projects) which are put on hold in such times. larger firms have a good contribution from run the business IT support work which sustains them through tough times.
the company’s been run by a professional CEO - currently a former wipro sales head, PR Chandrashekhar. He’s a smart guy and has taken hexaware in the right direction; from being an absolute disaster in 2008 they are recovering well now. business is growing; they’re investing in sales & BD. INtegrity perspective - Atul is primarily a stock market guy so hes happy as long as the markets are giving him a thumbs up; when that doesnt happen is the time you might see him get involved. would he indulge in fraud - i dont think so.
Hi Vinod,
IndiaNivesh seems to have gotten most of the data wrong in the comparison table regarding Ajanta.
For Ajanta Pharma in this report they are expecting FY13 eps to be 35 and FY14 eps to be 38. In a recent report on Ajanta dated 25th October they are expecting the same to be 47 and 60, which is more closer to truth than comparison table. That is a difference of more than 60-70%.
Also on ROE front, they are expecting Ajanta to have 27 and 24 as ROE in comparison table. But 25th october report puts these numbers to be around 37 and 36.
Disc. - Position in Ajanta.
thanks meet for the update on hexaware.
I think it will give returns once the whole mid cap IT pack is re rated from the current 9-10 PE levels to somewhat higher levels. I dont know if and when that will happen.
Among the larger IT companies wipro seems to be interesting with stock seemingly out of favor with the investing community. Read a recent report by prabhudas liladhar guys who project the fy 13 eps at around 26. at cmp of around 264 stock quotes at 14 PE which for an IT major seems attractive. Plus there is the demerger thing coming up which might provide some upside.
read wipro stock price as 364 rather than 264 in earlier post.