sagar,
I dont have much idea about suven life or its patents.
hitesh.
Hitesh paaji
Can you help me to find āmoatā which Poly Medicure and Cera have other than ābrand nameā ?
Reading 5 Rules for Successful Stock Investingā¦
In case of polymedicure its the technology, production capacities and capabilities and approvals from various regulatory bodies for their products, mainly IV cannula, blood bags etc. Its difficult for competitors to match their standing in the Indian industry in terms of quality, customer base and capacities.
Cera is a brand playā¦ Again the production capacities and brand strength are quite strongā¦Company has been growing strongly with robust profit growth against stiff competition from HSIL, other Indian companies and imported products, which goes to show that they are doing a lot of things which are right.
Hmmm thanku paajiā¦ Had not thought on approvals from various regulatory bodies and capabilitiesā¦
Was thinking about low cost products and switching costā¦ Is switching cost more for poly medicure customersā¦
For Cera can we say capable management, clean balance sheet and smart thinking is working for themā¦ Like they save power n fuel cost by generating power through wind millā¦
Hit Sir, Alzumab is launched today - Looking forward to your expert opinion on its efficacy/safety. I remember KMS mentioning that she is a potential multi-billion drug and that licensing income could be in 8 digits.
deep,
Not much idea about alzumab or its potential for bioconā¦
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deep,
Not bioconā¦Thanks Hitesh !
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Hi Deep,
The way I see it is,that AlzumAB has huge potential however,a lot of positives seem built up in Biocon the stock,at CMP.The Street seems pretty gung-ho on its prospects(& rightly so) Even in a bearish market the stock has held its own.In view of all this,the current risk-reward doesnāt seem too attractive.I am pretty sure that Biocon will manage a 20%+ topline growth in FY14,but the stock trades at 20+ TTm P/E.Seeing the kind of opportunities available right now,Biocon takes a backseat for me.Having said that,AlzumAb may surprise on the upside(by the AR,seems like a Dream Drug to me,they even explained the action mechanism!)
Disc.: No positions so views may not be biased 
My views could be biased:
Thanks Sagar for your views, The way I look at such businesses is where they can reach in 3-5 years than the yearly CAGR.
IMHO Bioconās profits should grow non-linearly over next 3 years and the upsides from Alzumab and insulinslaunchin developed market is over and above the ā20%ā growth and not factored in; Each of them could be huge.
Price ratios are factor of perceptions, Biocon had tough time over last couple of years in terms of stock price movement because of a de-rating mainly due to erratic quarterly numbers (as clinical trial expenses and licensing income do not follow a quarterly pattern). Infact Biocon is among the cheapest āgood qualityā pharma company in India. However good thing is that this industry has historically traded at high multiples globally and so did Biocon in the past ; hence I feel that with a couple of quarters where they outperform the streetās expectation could lead to re-rating which combined with the above growth factors can lead to significant upside(KMSās integrity is added bonus!).
The spends Biocon made(among the highest in INdia:9-10% of sales) have started bearing fruit.I like this co.,this stock.KMSās story is an inspiration in itself so you canāt have any corporate governance issues.Agree with you that it has always been an āexpensiveā stock.But being a sucker for valuations I would buy it around Rs.300 only.
That depends if you are playing it for a 10% or for X-bagger :-).
Does anybody have recent Jim Rogersās popular book
Street Smarts: Adventures on the Road and in the Markets
If yes can u please upload it ?
ongoogle drivewhich Link: mailto:valuepickr.downloads@gmail.com
Hi Samir,
Have uploaded the book
_Street Smarts: Adventures on the Road and in the Markets by_Jim Rogers
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Regards
Vijay
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mail id - valuepickr.downloads@gmail.com Link: mailto:valuepickr.downloads@gmail.com
password - share@valuepickr
thanks vijay ā¦ its really a time when we should read broad history instead of thinking from 2003 or 2009 history only and need to know where we stand as compared to world Or if not interested stick with experts like HDFC, Bajaj, M&M, etc
Hiteshji,
I Have recently joined Valuepikr and have been very impressed by your stock picks and the conviction you have in them.
Looking to invest in PI industries, Unichem, Vinati Organics, Indusind.
Whats ur view on them?
**Unichem and PI seem good for next couple of yearsā¦ Indusindā¦ It seems current price seems to factor in a lot of negative newsāreal and imaginedā¦(the only thing to mar returns could be de rating of whole banking sector as a whole.) **
Vinati I dont now track too closely so not much ideaā¦
But why not kaveri??
Hitesh Bhai,
Would like to hear your views on the derating of private banks. Do you think the CMP of good private banks like Indusind Bank/HDFC Bank (I think we are on a common platform for Yes Bank and have issues with it) fully prices in the liquidity issues and asset quality issues? I think the market till now has only priced in the liquidity issues and there can be some skeletons which can tumble in next 6 months - 1 year especially related to asset quality?
How did a quality stock like Gruh Finance/HDFC Bank/HDFC react in the bear market of 2008 - 09? Did it crash severely?
Thanks & Regards,
Ankit Gupta
Hi Ankit,
For an answer to such questions you can view the price history on Moneycontrol.com.Specfically,if you check from Jan,2008 to Mar 10,2009,you would get a good perspective.I checked Gruhā¦it went from 40 to 16 in that bear market.You can check the remaining.
Hitesh Ji,
How come PI looks good for next couple of years when Agri inputs is highly dependent on Monsoon which is unpredictable?
** Unichem
** Vinati ideaā¦
But why not kaveri??
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@jatin kalra, regarding PI Inds, fy 14 is going to be a great year ā¦ most of us would agree on thatā¦ good monsoon should help agri inputsā¦ .and CSM seems to be ramping upā¦ We have some projections to work with as wellā¦ So all in all there should be 25-30% growth.
Coming to fy 15, with the full functioning of jambusar SEZ plant and higher operating leverage, CSM business is likely to run well ahead of agri inputs segmentā¦ And if this CSM business is scaled up properly it can provide a great filip to growthā¦ Even margins will improveā¦ Currently order book is to the tune of around 300 million USDā¦ which is around 1800 croresā¦ FY 14 should be around 800 crores for CSM aloneā¦ So next year also there doesnt seem to be too much problem about order book for CSM businessā¦ Management commentary also indicates that there seems to be good potential in this CSM business.
So all in all I think next two years should be good for PI.
@ankitā¦I think banks are factoring in a higher interest regime from RBIā¦ Plus most of the PSU banks are factoring deteriorating asset qualitiesā¦ Since this seems to structural problem for the whole sector, all the stocks in the sector are taking a beating. But when recovery in this sector happens due to whatever reason, the better ones are going to rebound harder. Regarding 08-09, nothing was sparedā¦ Almost all the stocks were punished without any discriminationā¦ But then that provided a fertile ground to pick up multibaggersā¦ Among the private banks, those with high CASA ratio like hdfc bank should do much better than the rest in a high interest rate scenario.