there are no definite telltale signs of froth . I guess it comes out of experience and looking at patterns.
Looking at these stocks with froth one often gets the feel that too many people want to buy too much of the stock at whatever price all of a sudden. Just a few weeks back there were practically no buyers for TBZ at around 95 and now it seems a lot of people are mad after it.
Fundamentally nothing much has changed currently in TBZ except they have opened a few new stores.
Regarding amarraja, it is a stock with proven track record and getting its due rerating. Plus there was a lot of consolidation before upmove yesterday. kajaria no idea.
It will give clear picture of your portfolio if youmentionthe average buy price of each stock in your portfolio. Otherwise the Novice Investors will jump in the Stocks at higher price
Thanks to moneycontrol’s new graph based display of historical delivery %, I am able to see for TBZ that % delivery has gone for a toss @20% (used to in and around 70% in last 1-2 month back). It this one of the sign of froth?
I mentioned earlier also that one should not get anchored into past prices. Otherwise no decisions would be taken according to current valuations.
What is important is how the stock appears at current market price.
just for the record, among recent buys I bought kaveri at around 810-815 avg price, unichem at around 102, ajanta re entered at around 405 (after having sold off at avg price of 387, which were earlier bought at split adjusted price of 90), mayur for me are currently free of cost, ( i had bought twice the current holding and sold off half after making a 3 bagger of the original holding), tbz bought around 95, sold off around 140, fdc bought around 81-82, hawkins around 1550, page around 2850 , sold off around 3250-3300 (bcos i saw better returns possibility in techno which i bought at 172), atul auto first purchase at a bonus adjusted price of 62, and added more at post bonus price of 92, guj reclaim at around 1520, muthoot at around 81.
Recent buy includes buying bilt at around 19.50. intend to take bilt to around 8-10% of portfolio. This as mentioned before is a bet on turnaround with improved margins for the compay.
Again I would like to request anyone following me not to follow me blindly and take their own decisions based on their research and gut feelings.
Instead of looking at delivery percentage one needs to see the actual delivery volume. Bcos earlier the vols were hardly around 10000 shares per day whereas now it is a few lacs per day. delivery percentage is going to go down as volumes increase bcos a lot of day traders etc would get into a stock once it gets into momentum and play day trading game.
there is not too much change except that i haved sold off tbz totally and some page and hawkins to make way for the opportunities in bilt, techno, shilpa , jb chem, and coromandel.
Most of the latter are techno funda positions. I dont see page and hawkins going anywhere in a hurry so its an opportunistic move.
Only problem I see in hawkins is that there are a lot of guys out there who have bought the stock in the hope of the pollution issue being resolved soon and getting a hefty jump in stock price. But I think next qtr for hawkins will also in all likelihood be lacklustre so it might provide better entry points. There might even be a stampede to get out if no positive developments come from company on pollution front. Hawkins these days to me looks like the perfect stock to play the froth and fear game.
