Thanks hitesh, appreciate clarity with which you handle ideas.
Hi Hitesh Bhai,
Did you have a look at the south Indian bank anytime? The NPA figures are ashealthy as pvt banks. The growth in Q-1 has been good and the MD and CEO seem to be an able person driving growth wihtout taking too much risk. I have watched his interviews a few times.
The CASA ratio at 21% is not as good as pvt banks. NIM is healthy at 3.15%.
It has not runup as Axis,ICICI, SBI, IDBI, YES etc. In the current scenario banks are a good investment. There is already a visible shift from Pharma/FMCG to rate sensitives.
Cheers
Vinod M S
Disc: I bought Axis today at 1023 and south Indian bank at 22.25 for my short term portfolio
hi hitesh,
would you treat hawkins as a 25-30% compounderor do you think there could be more to it due to possible re-rating in-line with ttk?
also, do you think page can still continue to grow at 25-30% p.a for the next 3-4 years and hence maintain its high PE?
vinod ms,
I think the run up in banks has more to do with a beaten down sector bouncing up. The stronger names like yes, hdfc bank, indusind bk etc will give more meaningful bounces whereas the weaker psu banks will be lagging behind in their bounces.
I think with diesel price impact getting seen in inflation with a lag period, we may still see higher inflation going forwardwhich might lead to range bound moves in banks.
Even the much hyped fdi in retail may not be too meaningful bcos some states will play petty politics and in the beginning refuse the fdi and then with time bow down to money power.
Regarding reforms in the oil sector de regulation, there is already talks of govt increasing the no of lpg cylinders from 6 to 10-11 per connection just to pacify mamta bannerjee.
I might not even be surprised to see the govt fall before its full term is due. That might be a sentiment dampner. So I am not too enthused about current rally. It looks more like a liquidity driven sentimental rally. How far it goes is anybody’s guess. Till now there has been an overdose of “seemingly” good news. Lets see how markets deal with the first dose of bad news which might come going ahead.
Hi Hitesh bhai,
I know Page is a consumption play, with string brand moat. I am thinking of adding a bit of Page to my portfolio. What kind of gain is expected from Page in 1-2 year time frame.
From current run up I think one can expect around 25-30% cagr for next 1-2 year. It can form an anchor for aggressive mid and small cap portfolio.
With the recent run up I think I find better opportunities elsewhere as I feel other stocks might give better percentage returns as compared to Page.
**
Hi Hitesh,
Which stocks do you think can give better return in 1-2 year horizon as compared to Page. (If I guess, Kaveri, Ajanta might be 2 name, do you think of any other stock).
Hi Hitesh bhai,
I know Page is a consumption play, with string brand moat. I am thinking of adding a bit of Page to my portfolio. What kind of gain is expected from Page in 1-2 year time frame.
From
** portfolio.With **
Page.
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Hiteshji,
Just a question about my portfolio, I have been holding Lupin ( it has served me very well) for ages, it was actually bought by my dad when I was young. Do you think I should carry on holding it or switch to ajanta or unichem? Thanks!
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Hi Vimal,
Avanti Feed has been doing pretty well and the prospects are also pretty promising. If one reads the FY12 annual report, one can sense the opportunity the co is looking at. However, this sector’s fortunes can change very quickly due to weather, disease, control by importing countries etc. So one shouldn’t have a high exposure and try to play a bit safe.
Avanti does has potential to grow at 25-30% for next 2-3 years.
The run up has been good in Wimplast and hence the undervaluation has gone. There are better opportunities in the market.
Ayush
Lupin itself seems to be on a good wicket in US and Japanese markets. And ajanta and unichem are no longer undervalued to same level when they were a few months back. So I guess it would be a good idea to stick to lupin.
1 Like
Reduced some Page inds and bought techno electric in last few days. Intend to take techno electric to around 8-10% if it remains around 170 plus minus levels. This is one management I am tracking since long and am impressed with.
Deployed cash and some fresh money into ajanta and now it is close to 12% of portfolio.
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hiteshbhai,
what is story behind techno electric? can you please tell us in brief. i see that this stock has been sliding from 400 level in 2010 to around 170 now.
regards,
hemant
hemant,
we have a thread on techo – you can go through the write up i posted.
plus company website is very informative. concalls, investor updates research reports and their updates etc.
http://www.valuepickr.com/forum/not-so-hidden-gems/779548455
to me the company seems to be headed towards good times. Most of their wind energy capacity is tied up with power purchase agreements plus they get generation based incentives(GBI) and are allotted renewable energy certificates(REC) which they can sell on the relevant exchanges. I guess not many people have made any effort to understand the business model transformation of this wonderful company. I have been following this one since long, and am impressed with the progress. Its the proverbial “kamal in kichad” among power stocks.
thanks hitesh,
i somehow missed the thread. will dig deeper into this.
1 Like
Bought a trading position in Coromandel intl today.
Attached chart shows a classical trend reversal pattern. After successive lower tops and lower bottoms, stock has posted a higher top and higher bottom. Ideal time to get into such stock is on first pullback post a higher bottom. Currently stock seems to be hovering above its 200 dema around 272 levels. One can buy around 275-280 with closing stop loss of 275 with targets of around 350 levels.
2 Likes
Hi Hiteshji,
What’s your take on Amara Raja as a long term allocation (3-5 yrs+) ? How much percentage should be ideally allocated to ARBL at current prices ?
I find this increasingly attractive with strong conviction from market side, brand moat, size of opportunity, balance sheet strength and foreign promoters.
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hi rudra,
I think one can take amarraja up to around 15% in a portfolio of around 8-10 stocks.
I have posted my views in the ARBL thread.
Hi Hitesh,
Even from fundamental perspective, with cursory looks,Coromandel looks good. I will dig deeper and understand it more. Valuations are also reasonable. So, worth checking out for long term play.
Best Regards
Dhwanil Desai
Exited TBZ at 140 today with around 45% gains. Seems to be froth building up here.
Added more of techno electric. techno goes up to around 5% now.
Hitesh,
Can you let us know, what are the signals that indicate you to exit from a stock and how do you identify and keep track of them all. (I understand, you have mentioned froth, but would like to understand little better, can we say there is froth build up in Amaraja and Kajaria ? if yes, then does that mean very high volume is signal of froth, if not how is it different from TBZ)
This question might be too basic for experienced seniors but I need to know to get more clarity.
Atul