Hi Hitesh Sir,
Are you still tracking JM Financial ?
Business seems to be undergoing transformation - moving from asset heavy bussiness to asset light bussiness. They mentioned In May’24 that they would close down ARC and wholesale lending. And they will be focusing on AMC/Wealth management side and existing profitable businesses.
Would like to know if you have any recent view considering the planned changes in underlying businesses.
Thanks
They may be changing rule of the game by entering into insurance sector…currently experimenting mode
Sir, What I have seen is, the hospital doesn’t discharge the patient until the payment is made by either the insurance company or by the patient (or relative). It takes almost 4 hrs to half a day for the insurance processing on the day of discharge. What is the lag in payment you’re attributing to?
The hospital makes the patient wait for the sanction and confirmation of the insurance amount that the insurer will pay. They do not receive the payment at that time. They receive it much later.
The delay in releasing patients is for getting approval on the final bill( and the patient has to pay for the rest before discharge), however insurance companies pay the hospital only after a certain period like 45 days or so.
Yesterday Federal Reserve of US announced 50 bps rate cut. US markets initially cheered the news and then ended in the red. Indian small cap and mid cap indices are down ~2% as of this writing.
I have been following the rate cut event this time and there were contradictory views expressed by various writers of WSJ and FT on daily basis. Some of them are written below -
There is so much flip-flop in consensus market views - that it was confusing and rather pointless.
Eventually, I felt that all of this is ignorable.
The mid and small cap indices have run up quite a bit for last year or so and valuations are significantly above long term averages. So some correction is par for the course.
That being said - liquidity in the Indian markets is very strong as can be evidenced by multifold subscriptions to IPOs, most MFs are sitting on 10% type cash, most of the salary hikes post COVID seem to have found its way in the markets, equity participation of retail investors has widened (I think number of equity account holders is something like 16cr).
My sense is that this kind of liquidity inflow would not be deterred unless there is a large India focused event. My past experience of liquidity drying up in Indian markets are - 2016 demonetization breaking the Modi Rally that started in 2013. Small/mid-caps were making suffered between 2016-2018 and had started to make a comeback by Jan 2020 - when COVID hit. I don’t know what that large negative event would be but till then there would be sector rotations.
Being a concentrated investor, I am focused on holding on to what I believe would be winners for next 2-3 years. I am looking at any price correction in existing companies as opportunity to add more. This obviously assumes that business performance plays out as I have envisaged. Any deterioration in that would be a far stronger signal to sell.
I am also keenly looking to find winners into newer sector and hopefully we can find some at decent valuations.
Disc - Predicting (macros or markets or elections or anything else) is a sucker’s game. One would be likely to be wrong than right.
Hello hitesh sir…
Today move in small midcap stock we compare with 2017-19
Small mid cap bear phase like situations starting?
These one day moves that cause flutters in investors’ minds will come off and on during strong bull rallies. There is definite froth in small and midcap and more so in SME segments. But as long as the music of liquidity continues, party goes on. Someday the music will stop ( liquidity will somehow reduce) and then things can start going south. When that happens is anyone’s guess.
So for us retail investors, choice is either to join the party and stay near exit, or stay away totally and watch the fun from a distance. I have seen some investors taking a cash call few months back and having regrets, but ultimately joining the party and now fully invested. For me, staying focussed on the companies I am invested in or intend to invest in has always made a lot of sense.
Predicting tops is a tough exercise. I can do that like some experts on TV who predict a market top every week since nearly 3-4 months, and get right atleast once. I can then have a lot of bragging rights, because I can then trumpet my one right call for the next year, while forgetting the 10 or more wrong calls I made earlier. 
Hitesh Bhai (@hitesh2710): Look forward to read your latest view on overall markets mood. Any plan to publish anytime soon?
Hello Sir, good to hear your informative sight towards several business. Can you share your thoughts on BLS E-services.
Recent (not so recent) listing, M-Cap - 1900 crores.
My thoughts:
Markets are under severe pressure since last week and the weakness continues as of yesterday. Overall we have seen a lot of carnage in a lot of stocks and portfolios within a few days. That is the norm with sharp corrections.
Where this correction ends is anybody’s guess. Technical experts were expecting support at around 25300-25500, and below that 24700-800. We are close to the lower of the two levels, and still are not sure which way things will pan out.
Factors affecting sentiments are plenty, including the geopolitical situation, affecting oil and currencies, local factors (which seem temporary) in form of state election results, China resurgence ( with a theory that FIIs are fleeing India and shifting their bets to China) , so on and so forth. The good thing is markets often bottom out on bad news, so who knows we may have a chance.
As with all corrections, its prudent to remain stock specific and focus on companies we hold. If any switch is needed, it can be done if possible beccause in these type of corrections, everything corrects to varying degrees, so switching is easy if size of holding is not too big a problem.
We still do not have any signs of reversal from this correction, so would be prudent to be watchful and see how things pan out. If we are fully invested, there is nothing else to do but grin and bear the pain. And hope it eases soon. For those with cash, its a question of what to buy and how much to buy.
@pulkit09 I don’t have any idea about BLS E services.
After researching through the web, I have realized that, after 2020 crash, and since that point onwards mainly the bull market has continued with some small corrections during 2022. The corrections were not more than 8% or so at a given point and hence there is a possibility that, this correction also may not last long.
For value investors like me, this throws up multiple opportunities since some of the stocks on Watch Lists come in my Buy Zone. But as pointed by Hitesh Sir, how much to buy in such times is the difficult question and Answer is not simple.
Also, during such corrections, stocks with weak fundamentals like low PAT growth, Lower ROCE often correct more and it is relatively easier to distinguish between high quality and low quality stocks. Sometimes even high quality stocks correct sharply because they are more overvalued than low quality stocks.
Just thought of adding some observations.
Many times, not doing any thing serves the purpose in such corrections. An investor should wait and watch for the positive signs if at all it happens.
@hitesh2710 sir you have seen and experienced many bear and bull cycles I as naive investor have a few questions if it’s possible for you to reply I will be great help
On how to find multibaggers you may go through talks given by Hiteshbhai which is referred in this post. Hitesh portfolio - #7635 by barathmukhi
Dear Hitesh ji. Do u do DCF for such expectations to be understood in current prices. How does it all happen. I’m yet to read expectation investing but Maubbousin’s video on youtube started going beyond my RAM and I was just listening. 
Hitesh (@hitesh2710) Bhai: Would appreciate your views on the below aspects. TIA.
1- What might be the reasons ,except fraud and regulatory action, in your opinion for a vertical fall in any share’s price in a short span of time? For instance, the DMART’s weekly chart shown below. Suppressed profitability in Q2 results compared to revenue resulted in a gap down opening in the lastest week. However, stock started correcting in a vertical fashion 3 weeks prior.
2- Oriental Aromatics Ltd’s (OAL’s) price had a bullish close today. Neckline of double bottom @ Rs. 504 was continuously challenged in the prior 4 weeks. However, today’s strong close indicates a bullish stance for the coming weeks. What’s your latest view on the current chart setup?
Disc: No position in DMART. Holding OAL.
Dmart as a business is a fantastic business. But a great business may not necessarily mean a great investment. An oft repeated saying in markets is price is what you pay and value is what you get. So even great businesses have to be bought at right time and right prices. Coming to why it started falling, fundamentally there can be a number of reasons.
But on charts, the clues were present in Negative divergence in RSI Indicator in weekly chart. In April stock price made a high of 4890 and RSI made a high of around 78. But in recent rally to 5400 plus in Sep 2024, RSI was lower and could not even cross above 70. These kind of negative divergences may not always play out, but can provide early warning signals to be on the toes to look out for any major negative chart developments on chart front. First real signal on daily charts was a gap down day on 3 Oct 2024, where stock price closed at 4942, and since then it has been mayhem in price action and it closed at 3986, a cut of nearly 1000 rs within a few days.
OAL was in a flag like consolidation since nearly 8 weeks and last week gave a breakout above falling trendline. It has been retesting its previous key breakout level at 503. Usually this retesting is not restricted to an exact price point, but in general the price keeps dancing around that level without really breaking down too much. And once consolidation is over, (which may take a few days to few weeks depending upon the time frame of chart) there can be a breakout. disc: I own it and remain bullish.
Few years back I had started to learn DCF but a learned friend pointed out the negatives related to that method and I gave up. There are too many suppositions and gazing in to future, and these days things change too quickly for most businesses. So I like to look at the trajectory of the business, rather than put an exact value to it.
then, how do you decipher that next 2-3 years of earnings are baked into prices. I mean, for entry levels this leaves them bewildered, as to whether we will ever be able to say anything with confidence about the price.
The important aspect to consider here is to put in your best case earnings estimates and then take a call. For that you need to read last few years annual reports, read about the company, follow its concalls, if they are done, the sector, the competitors, and then take a call. Its usually a rough estimate, not a precise number.
In some instances, its not possible to look too much beyond a quarter or two, and there the call has to be shorter term.
Regarding which tutorials or advisories are better, lets avoid all that discussions on this thread as we don’t want to get into unrelated topics of discussions.
