Hitesh portfolio

[ameydesai]

Alike Neuland Labs, Justdial ltd. also doesn’t look like to be in a Long Term Bull run mode. I guess this too has finished its monthly 5th wave and will now correct given the divergence. The key is whether the price and MACD both break-out of the All time high zone. then that will become a good entry point into the stock.

Disclaimer - This is just a study, I could be wrong, I am just expressing my technical views for long term timeframe with monthly candle stick pattern.

Sorry @hitesh2710 bhai if I have crossed my limits!

[hitesh2710]

@ameydesai

Neuland has a daily (and even weekly ) gap down after a very big run up. Plus as you mention, there are bearish divergences. On monthly chart there is a big bearish candle covering the body of previous bull candle. There are multiple evidences to suggest bearish bias in the stock.

I don’t use Elliot Waves too much because I don’t understand its interpretation very well. Just to see how it works I have been following a few EW experts who put up their views on TV channels, and found them partially correct at best. For me, simpler methods have worked well till now and continue to work well.

@Kuldeepjadeja I don’t track Just dial too closely.

[Naresh]

Hitesh Bhai can you please share your insights on Rallis India Chart.

[Swadesh9819]

Dear Knowledge sharers and seekers,

Entered this counter today and looking gradually to build up position.

Rationale -

1. Promoter (Gateway Distripark) is aggresive in enhancing it’s stake.
2. It’s presence in growing Cold chain logistics and getting consolidated.
3. Breaking out of multi year consolidation (double bottom formation), subsequently forming bullish flag pattern.

Hitesh bhai & members, looking for inputs which I may have missed.

[Rj_Arora]

@ameydesai @hitesh2710 Fundamentally, Next year can be soft for Neuland labs, that’s why the stock has corrected. But 2026 should be a bumper year. So it’s a long term story and the journey is going to be lumpy.

[santoshj]

But market has already started discounting FY26. So, there shouldn’t be much correction to the stock price, unless there is some unforeseen event which postpones FY26 (expected) performance to FY27.

[ChaitanyaC]

@hitesh2710

Sir, how should one go about trading without looking at charts?

Just like many investors invest without any help from charts, purely going on with fundamentals, can traders too, trade without charts?

With investing one can hold the stock for years if there is a big fall in share price, in the hope to sell at the purchase price. With trading, comes stop loss, one cannot fear to take loss, nor one can hold exceeding the intended period, to escape loss, as capital is necessary for other trades, and trading with a plan is better.

I am guessing, there existed some participants who were inclined towards shorter time periods, and must have been successful too, before computers came into usage.

Perhaps, you can pick a stock for trading, without looking at its chart, because you have years of experience which reflects while selecting a stock for trading, so you will have some idea as to how the story will unfold. But, you too post many charts, and Hitpicks is technofunda based, Quantamental has indicators incorporated in them. Personally too, I get some sense of what is happening when looking at a chart. I am also coming across posts in VP, where investors are posting charts, and talking about stage analysis, they are incorporating technicals with their fundamentals. So to omit the technical aspect looks hard.

And after buying, following the price through charts, is straight forward, with the chance to observe the price on multiple time frames at the same time, trailing profit too is not tedious, and one even say that price will reflect all the changes, at least, after buying. How could one know without checking charts, that price in going into consolidation, taking a breather, and another leg of journey can start? Just by following the price through numbers?

So, if one were to not include any kind of technical analysis, and rely upon looking at numbers and fundamentals, and want to take trades only for shorter periods of time, for a few weeks to months, how can he do that? Is this even possible, or TA has become a standard, and will only grow, so there is no trading without TA, just like there are no markets without Quants?

[Kaustav_Gupta]

Awaiting for the response.

Sorry to butt in but I am also bouncing my idea.

My belief: Jesse livermore and Nicolas Darvas used to trade when computer was not in effect. But, they used to monitor price trends exhaustively. Noting price movement daily, and, formed their system for decision making.
Today, I believe this is what is incorporated in many techniques like breakouts, etc. It is just that computer (and graphs) has made the same/similar process less difficult.

So, to answer your question, it should still be possible but is very tedious. I monitored daily price movements (daily highs, lows, close, previous high etc) to build confidence for trading. And, as sir mentioned, with ‘breakout’ technique there is high frequency of false positives. So some patient is also need there to let bets play out, or, reach ‘sell trigger’.

[hitesh2710]

@ChaitanyaC

I assume that your question is " Can investors do short term (or medium term) trading without the use of technical charts?"

I know a lot of fellow investors who do not use charts, (or are not well versed in charts) but are clued in to the goings on in the companies they track. They have clear cut focus on how to play the situation and are aware of the near term triggers that could affect short term price movements.

These kind of investors track stuff like the raw material prices, finished product prices, exports data, scuttlebutt, and some of them are very well networked. They are good at playing quarterly results, or a turnaround situation etc.

I met a few investors who used to play on a situation that is not so common in markets. They used to track selling in a specific company by big funds, HNIs, FII/DIIs, etc and when the selling reached the fag end, they played for the rally that ensues once the selling pressure abates.

Yet another set of investors tend to buy into stocks that are being bought by fancy names (investors) and try to coattail them.

Some value investors determine the replacement cost of a company and end up buying the stock at a discount to that value that sometimes markets offer and play for the resulting bounce.

There are various ways a pure fundamental investor can play the game of short tem trading. But by nature I have seen that the vast majority of fundamental investors take a medium to long term call.

All said and done, there is no harm in having a look at price chart of the company you want to involve yourself with, even though you do not know too much of charts. A brief look atleast provides a rough idea about the trend in the stock, whether its up, down , or sideways.

[Shripad]

Hello @hitesh2710 sir,
I have a question about Sharda motors. Sharda motor debt free with good profit growth and good ROE. Price is trading in the channel almost for a year. Holding this company from the level of 1000. Now it is touching the upper channel. In such cases, is it good to wait for channel break-out or book the profit and wait for channel breakout to re-enter the stock. Looking forward for your kind suggestion on how one should play such situation.

[sreejithc1989]

Hai sir …I have started using technical analysis to decide when to sell my stocks. However, I’m not sure whether I should prioritize technical analysis or fundamental analysis when using both together. Additionally, I need advice on what to do when the entire market is going down, and some of my fundamentally strong companies also show sell signals based on technical analysis. How should I handle these situations?

[barathmukhi]

@sreejithc1989

whether I should prioritize technical analysis or fundamental analysis when using both together.

@sreejithc1989 When buying it is generally better to give more weight to fundamentals because valuations are cheaper when we buy.

If we have bought correctly and the stock has gone up, over time, due to a mix of EPS growth and PE rerating, then usually it is better to give more weight to technicals because our biases tend to make us value what we own, higher than what they are actually worth in the eyes of somebody who doesn’t own that stock. And thanks to rerating, valuations often go to absurd unsustainable levels. Hence one can give more weight to technicals and less to fundamentals, when selling.

That being said, often times technicals can be misleading and one needs to have a lot of fundamental conviction to be able to hold the stock when the charts aren’t looking very good.

To cite an example, Usha Martin had gone to ₹370 levels in Sep 2023 and had been consolidating between ₹270 and ₹370 levels for close to 8-9 months. Like everything else in life, context is important. This consolidation was happening when a roaring bull market was on, and sectors such as railways, defense, PSUs, renewables and many others went up like crazy and in many cases multiplied investor wealth multi-fold, leading to opportunity costs for those who held on to Usha. Meanwhile Usha went below the sacrosanct 200 DMA level during the March 2024 correction before breaking it’s all time high levels 2-3 months later. My guess is, future returns in Usha will more than make up for the long consolidation phase, because the co. is eyeing global leadership in some of the segments that it operates in.

So fundamental conviction was a must-have during that drawdown in Usha, in order to be able to enjoy the subsequent rally.

All said and done, selling at the right time can be tricky even for the best of investors and multiple factors such as availability/non-availability of better opportunities, market phase (bull/bear/sideways), exit valuations, risks in the story, etc. come into play.

[hitesh2710]

@sreejithc1989

Your query has been beautifully answered by @barathmukhi . Fully agree with his views. The other aspect of the equation is to figure out where you are extremely good at. Whether its technical analysis or fundamental analysis. And follow that discipline.

@Shripad

Its not possible for me to give personalised advice on a particular stock. You can take your own call.

[hitesh2710]

@shreejithjn

If you are using both technicals and fundamentals and trying to combine the two disciplines, there is no need to sweat over how much importance to give to which discipline. Idea should be to get clarity regarding the chart/company in question. Sometimes fundamental picture will be very clear, other times technical picture will be clear. In rare instances both fundamentals and technical picture will be clear, and in such instances one should work really hard, try to see if there are any strong investment arguments.

In broad market corrections, the sacrosanct technical levels will all be broken, and the feeling would be that technicals are not of much use. Best use of technicals is for entry and wherever possible , find out targets and take appropriate action.

[Shakti_Srivastava]

Hitesh Sir,

As many experienced & seasoned investment gurus say that low base capital investors need to first build a decent corpus with aggressive but sensible investing and then look for wealth creation through that decent corpus.

Being an aggressive investor with high risk appetite and low capital base, is it advisable to invest in fundamentally decent/good SME and mirco cap stocks.

Of course, the investment will be after proper study.

Regards.

[hitesh2710]

@Shakti_Srivastava

The holy grail of investing is to get maximum returns with minimum risk. The same logic applies to investors with big and small capital alike. In the initial phase of investment, capital preservation is of paramount importance because there is not too much of it.

So one has to be careful not to blow if up. Having said that, if due care is taken in researching a stock and everything is in place, the market cap does not matter too much. If you check out the big winners for the year, or over a 2-3-5 year period, all kind of market cap companies will feature in the list.

We do seem to be in a bubble phase in SME sector since past few months, and I don’t know how far things can go. Personally I don’t go in that sector, because I find plenty of opportunities in the small-mid and large cap space.

[sudhanshucs0102]

@hitesh2710 sir what are your technical views on ujjivan small finance bank. Last 2-3 days there are heavy sellers with large volumes and stock is sliding.

[hitesh2710]

Hitesh portfolio

Over the last few days there has been a lot of nervousness and speculation about election results outcome. Markets have been on tenterhooks. Cat on hot bricks is an apt analogy to current markets. To take away the noise, attached chart shows a rising channel within which Nifty has traded since Dec 2023. And in recent past we have had a triple bottom formation in range of 21700-800 with breakout and confirmation on clearing 22700-22800. Index made a swing high of 23110 on 27th May and has b…

In follow up to above post, we are approaching double (triple) bottom breakout target of 23800. I have drawn another equidistant trendline to provide a higher channel of similar magnitude to the existing trading channel. If we do have a blowout rally from current levels, we could be looking at levels of 24500 kind of levels wherein nifty will touch higher end of the newly depicted higher channel.

Posted just for academic purposes to see how simple models work. As of now it has provided noise free analysis, wherein the election fears, exit polls, and outcome all have played out. We will keep following this pattern going forward to see how it plays out.

[Kunal7]

Thanku for knowledge sir , I am new into market I have experience of around 8-9 months.i have read some books as well I am invested(in testing phase) with small capital as well. Sir can you tell me how to do systematic bussiness model analysis of any stock. Let’s just say as per books I know some important things which I have to look like pe,sales growth,peg ratio etc. I know the exact screener of Peter lynch and Mark minervini (Both quite opposite though) now i found stocks nmwhat should be my next step ?

[hitesh2710]

@Kunal7

The perfect book to analyse a company is Pat Dorsey’s Five rules for successful stock investing. It covers all sectors and specifies what to look out for in each sector. If One up on Wall Street is the “ART of Investing” book, the former is “SCIENCE of Investing” book.