Hitesh jee
Good evning.
Do u track new rising sector renewable energy stocks KPI green , waree renewable( power generating), and
Solar panel manufacturing companies like websol, borosil renewable… these companie go up one day cm down othr day some time circut to circut
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In response to the negative divergence in Nifty and some other indices we have had a corrective market. But in the backdrop of election outcome, nervousness, some amount of volatility is always expected in the markets.
I would not read too much into these divergence observations as long as key levels are held during corrections. I feel this is the best time to watch out for companies declaring better than expected results and encouraging commentary and make a list of such companies and levels at which to buy these companies. During bouts of intense volatility, this list can come handy. (don’t ask me for my list. 
)
@jp_sharma I don’t track the renewable space. Big miss for me.
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Would you mind sharing more sir? I have seen small YouTube channels talking about some stocks from this space, and the subscribers participating and benefiting. So I believe you must have found them too either from TA or from other means. Did you find but not chose to not participate for any reason?
I had managed to look at breakouts in these renewable stocks and managed to ride one of them in form of Inox Wind Ltd. I exited it a bit early but with the kind of allocation and returns I was getting within 7-8 weeks, I was quite satisfied with my returns.
I had a look at other stocks in the sector like SW solar etc but somehow could not figure out how earnings are going to pan out. And often times when you are focussed on your portfolio picks and do not have too much funds to deploy to new ideas, you often miss such sectors.
In investing, these kind of misses are part and parcel of the game. As long as your winners take care of such lapses, portfolio returns are okay.
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Over the last few days there has been a lot of nervousness and speculation about election results outcome. Markets have been on tenterhooks. Cat on hot bricks is an apt analogy to current markets.
To take away the noise, attached chart shows a rising channel within which Nifty has traded since Dec 2023. And in recent past we have had a triple bottom formation in range of 21700-800 with breakout and confirmation on clearing 22700-22800. Index made a swing high of 23110 on 27th May and has been in a corrective mode. Recent correction can be a retest after a breakout, or a failed breakout.
In either case, if double bottom plays out, we can be looking at potential target of 23700-23800 on Nifty depending upon election results However if we continue with correction, then levels of 22200-300 is rising channel support. Below that the previous triple bottom range support is at 21700-800. 22200-22600 is zone of retracement support wherein the 38.1%, 50% and 61.8% retracement levels of the previous rally are located.
If results are totally unexpected on either side, things can go wild on either side.
This is a totally objective chart of Nifty with well defined patterns, channels and levels. No recommendations, views. Just observing how things pan out. Hope for best and prepare for the worst.
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Dear @hitesh2710 Hiteshji,
Thank you for regular wisdom on both technical and fundamental wisdom time to time to calm the nerves.
Now another result season is coming to an end amid election related volatility.
So, would you mind giving a review of your Techno fundamental picks like Usha Martin, Delhivery, Housing finance companies like Repco/PNB Housing, Banking stocks like IDFC first bank/Maharastra Bank ? Are you holding them amidst this volatility or did you sold some of them due to fundamental/technical reasons? What are the new names interests you post this results season?
Thanking you once again.
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Usha Martin remains a long term investment. I haven’t traded too much in it. Delhivery, stop loss got triggered. Among the rest of financials, I keep trading in and out wherever there are enough volumes and where I get a chance to do trading.
With results season nearly over and overall weakness in broader markets, there are a lot of companies which have delivered good results and where commentary is good and inspite of good results, stocks have not moved too much. These kind of companies bear watching. It needs diligence to look at companies reporting good numbers, following them up with concalls and then taking a call. As of now its work in progress for me.
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Hi @hitesh2710 sir,
Can you name some of these names that you consider have posted good results and commentary is good but stocks have not moved too much?
Thanks
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Finding names will be something that you will have to do on your own. Idea of this forum is to educate investors, not spoon feed them.
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@hitesh2710 ji,
Given the election results, how do you see the market behaving in the next few months?
Good news is : NDA forming government
Not so good news : It is a (small) coalition and not absolute majority of BJP
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The hype and expectation from the Loksabha election was a strong BJP performance along with its NDA allies. Actual results fell well short of these expectations. This came as a rude shock to the markets and we saw the results of this when indices were at one point of time down nearly 10%.
However the NDA has garnered 291 seats which provides it comfortable majority above the 272 mark. The concern here is the stability of the alliance and its main partners CB Naidu and Nitish Kumar remaining true to alliance. If I think from the perspective of these leaders, in case of CB Naidu he has always been interested in AP, and its development agenda. For someone like him, a development minded central leader like PM Modi makes more sense. And for someone like Nitish Kumar who has the support of BJP in Bihar in his CM stay, and who has in the past had poor experience in allying with Lalu Yadav and his son, staying with NDA makes a lot of sense. He might have to let go of his alleged dream of becoming PM, but can seal his CM post and carry on good work in Bihar with support from NDA at centre. So logically the alliance should be strong.
On BJP’s side, it needs only 32 more MPs to have complete majority. And there are many small independents, and smaller parties who can be convinced to join the alliance. Even if one of the allies in form of Naidu (less likely) with 16 MP or Nitish Kumar with 12 MP( slim chances but possible looking at his past U turns) were to dither in their support, the overall MPs they have is too small for big bargaining positions. Plus BJP has Shinde sena, Chirag Paswan and others to count as allies.
Overall NDA as an alliance could be a stable alliance unless something catastrophic, or stupid happens.
But when markets are fed the diet of 400 paar, the reality of seeing BJP struggling to cross even the majority mark on its own is a big jolt.
My guess is once better understanding of the situation prevails and govt formation actually takes place, markets can stabilise. The silver lining here is that economy is booming, and once the perception of stable govt is established, things should improve. Besides these the usual reasons for market swings in form of global factors, etc will keep affecting markets.
Coming to individual stocks and sectors, this is a ripe time to observe things closely and watch out if any stock/sector starts showing strength by clearing fresh 52 week highs or multi year highs. A lot of portfolios were hit yesterday to the tune of 5 to 15% in a single day, but this kind of volatility is not the norm. Once the markets stabilise, focus will shift again to fundamentals of companies and major price trends on charts and prices should move in tandem. As of now fingers crossed. The main thing this time the exit polls have demonstrated is that no one knows everything and gets things right all the time.
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Very true Hiteshji. But there are many caveats in your observation. The biggest is the temptation of Parties to switch to Freebies after such poor results. We are sure that alliance politics will prevent Modi 3.0 to go for big ticket reforms. That is the biggest casualty which will not be liked by FIIs.
Second factor will be more socialistic trends, which in India is linked to subsidies. With strident opposition views, the Govt will be under pressure to spend more on subsidies, which will affect other expenditures and it may affect infrastructure spending.
Biggest factor will be instability factor which is not liked by Mr Market. And both CB Naidu and Nitish Kumar are famous (or notorious) for extracting their pound of flesh.
And last but not the least, Modiji may not like to lead a lame duck Govt and may opt out very soon.
These are my thoughts and only time will tell how things pan out.
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The Modi 3.0 version I feel will be slightly different from earlier two versions. As you mentioned, coalition politics restrictions can come into play. But knowing his rule in Gujarat as the then CM, he is a man not easily put off from his mission because of pressure tactics. And as the equation stands, he is well placed to withstand any drama from one or two partners.
However as investors I think there could be some slight change in my stance in approaching markets and stock picks. I think the immensely popular and most fancied themes of past few months viz. PSU, railways, defence, power etc some of which were already commanding crazy valuations might be in to face some hibernation. How long this lasts is anyone’s guess.
The recent rally in FMCG (which is now on most investors’ lips has brought focus to the sector. I think there are other sectors that will also join the bandwagon. I think in the backdrop of issues related to govt instability due to coalition politics might change the perception of a lot of HNI/DII/FII etc On ground reality might not be too much in terms of govt collapse, but the perception of the above mentioned folks matters bcos they control the big moneybags. So sectors that are not too vulnerable to govt instability like pharma, fmcg, IT, and other standalone companies having good prospects should do well.
And there can also be more frequent corrections induced by true or imagined fears which are these days amplified by Whatsapp and other such platforms.
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Hedging is like keeping pressing accelerator with one foot and break with the other because one is afraid of accident. It gives a false sense of security but in reality consuming a lot of fuel and damaging the car (plus one is not really not going anywhere).
Better to drive judiciously or in case of investment, build a portfolio that allows one to sleep peacefully and focus on their day work through market cycles. If one is worried about their portfolio at every event then probably they need to rethink their portfolio.
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Hitesh Sir…
I think pharma comapnies mainly in API manufacturing/processing are available at reasonable valuation
I think Neuland Labs can do better in future
Please provide your views also on this
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@Krish13 It seems Neuland labs has completed its 3rd wave when it touched 7700 and will now see a sideways correction or time correction before the 5th wave starts. however I would love to see what Hitesh bhai has to say.
Sun tv on closing above 735 on a weekly basis will confirm an atypical cup and handle breakout. These days even after breakout happens, there is often retest, retracement and consolidation, and we have to be mindful of these things while contemplating entry. But overall the structure for Sun tv is that of a rounding structure which appears bullish. One needs to do fundamental analysis if techno funda bets are to be considered.
@Krish13 I don’t track Neuland labs.
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Hitesh bhai, I can see Neuland Labs showing a Bearish divergence on weekly timeframe on RSI. See this
I wouldn’t want our VP community to enter the stock at the wrong time, when technicals are not supporting an entry. If its a trading position for a temporary bounce during sideways, then I am OK. But I believe technical long term entry is after we see completion of 4th wave when 5th wave is about to begin
I would love to enter this scrip at Rs. 4638
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