Hello Hitesh bhai, how are you? Do you track WPIL? How would you track companies that depend on government policies for their revenues? Is it suitable to keep investing on them or wait for the elections to happen in 2024?
(@hitesh2710) Hitesh Bhai: I recall you initiated a position (@ ~500) in Natco Pharma even before conventional techincal indicators turned bullish. What was your thinking for that position?
Chart of Natco had been discussed on 52 weeks high technical thread at following link.
Power Infrastructure seems to be picking up a lot and I have come across this company named Jyoti Structures. Its into Transmisson Line Towers / Equipment. Just wanted to check if you have any insights for the company considering there are many other players like Skipper as well in this space. Jyoti structures recently announced convertible warranty shares to a group of non-promoters and Mr. Ashish Kacholia is one of them.
@Akashdeep I don’t track WPIL. Whether to invest in govt companies in view of upcoming elections is an individual call. There are no right or wrong answers for it. One has to go more by gut instinct.
@rjs391 I don’t track Jyoti structures.
Do you Track ‘Techknowgreen Solutions Limited’?
If Yes, how the company poised for growth, according to you?
Any views on Shera Energy?..
Hello Hitesh Sir,
Earlier you used to track Indoco Remedies. Now, as per attached chart, after long consolidation it is trying to move out of it.
for last 3-4 quarters company was not reporting good result which was visible in price action also. From falling trend line, it consolidated in a range of 305-360 for a period of almost 9 months and now trying to move out of this range.
As you earlier used to track it, please share your view on this.
Fundamentally I don’t track Indoco anymore. It has been a story of disappointments in terms of results. Who knows at some point of time it might change.
On charts, it has been stuck in a broad range of 310-360 since a long time and now seems to be attempting a break out. Need to see how it sustains and consolidates.
@Ujjawal_Kumar1 I haven’t heard about Techknowgreen.
@Journey_Goes_On I haven’t heard about Shera energy.
One thing we need to be careful about is not to get carried away by companies carrying names of sectors currently in favour. Anytime a sector is in fancy, and reaches craze levels, a lot of companies which have nothing to do with those sector tend to change names to suit their purpose.
Helli Hitesh ji, what are your views on
- Arvind Fashions
@hitesh2710 Thanks for all the replies and help
I have a question
Which indicator would you use if you have only one to chose for signal.
Also any hidden tricks to use volume and price action to enter a stock
Thanks and stay safe
I am not too much into indicators. So any single indicator use does not appeal to me. And why use a single indicator if you can use a couple of them more.
Most important parameter for me is price action and pattern if any. Next is volumes.
@pcygnii Let’s not make this a thread on query on any and every stock. I don’t track most of the stocks you have put up except for Paradeep which is a trading pick based on its breakout above post IPO highs.
My views should not matter too much if you are investing your hard earned money. You will need to do your own digging and research, and develop your own conviction if you were to buy a stock. We have threads on most of the stocks you have mentioned, so you can go through them and get an idea about them.
Hello Hitesh sir,
We know you don’t follow macro very much but still wanted your perspective on the overall picture.
If we look at real estate it has become too expensive. Rents and home prices are going through the roof in every big city. A family with two incomes want to have only one child. People with stable jobs feel they can’t afford a second kid. There is hardly any hiring in the IT sector. There is a slowdown in the overall job market as well.
Most of the small and midcap stocks have become overvalued.
Somehow (I feel) FED doesn’t have any incentive to decrease rates that can fuel further rally.
But the market keeps on increasing. Wanted to know your thoughts on this conflicting situation.
The macro parameters that you have highlighted are well known in the markets. Inspite of that, markets continue to go up. That’s the way with the markets. The expected rarely happens. If you remember when the Israel Hamas war happened, everyone expected markets to go down and go down significantly. Factors like high crude prices (with predicitons of crude going to 120 USD), high bond yields, high dollar levels ( above 83 against INR, still remains above 83 ) all were pointing to a correction in the markets, or atleast softish markets for a while. But markets have a mind of their own, and most of the times tend to get events and their effects right. ( in some rare instances, there can be an erroneous reaction atleast early on which gets reversed later on) Just to drive home this point, one needs to see the market moves before exit polls. It went up two days in a row, when pollsters were not too sure of outcome, but markets seem to have got it right. I remember in run up to Loksabha 2014 elections, markets had started rallying well before elections sensing a stable govt.
Want to narrate an anecdote. I usually listen to a few technical analysts on their regular YouTube videos to get a sense of what they think. I was listening to a celebrated ( whose subscription service is highly expensive ) technical analyst who had got the previous bull run absolutely right but of late had turned bearish. At the time of Israel war or sometime later, when the Youtube video was available we were recovering from 18800 bottom and closer to 19 k and he was of the view that there may not be much upside above 19200-19300. And he ennumerated the above very factors I narrated as arguments as to why markets would not rally. Now that was a bit surprising to me especially when a purely technical guy starts using macro factors as a part of his analysis. ( I still am a fan of his style of analysis, but I take everyone’s views with a pinch of salt) Nothing wrong in looking at macros, but the primary job of the technical analyst is to follow charts and see where support levels are and how markets are behaving near those levels.
In above post we had identified 18800-900 as a possible level to see if a bounce materialises and then take a call. So rather than be predictive and try to predict too much, we have to position ourselves by looking at possibilities and then try forecasting outcomes.
One of the reasons I maintained my bullish stance was the overall strength shown by small and midcaps space even during that correction.
Coming to scenario as of now, post BJP’s victory in 3 out of 4 states, markets seem on steroids. Today marked a big bullish day with indices hitting all time highs with a big gap up opening.
A lot of projections related to bullish phase in markets leading up to the elections are now floating around. A lot of fancy targets are being bandied around for indices. While this may or may not happen, we have to remember that elections are nearly 5-6 months away and that is often a long time in equity markets. There can be ugly corrections in between market rallies as well and these corrections often will shake investor confidence.
One observation I have related to markets is that the period from January to March is often a time for some kind of topping pattern in markets. This can be a short to medium or long term top. With the kind of rally we have in our markets and the narratives that are being built up, we could end up having a frothy rally leading up to the January-March time frame and if that happens, we should be on the lookout for signs of a top nearby (of whatever time frame, short or medium or long term. ) This is just a theory based on observations during past few years, and we need to see how things play out (theory may not play out and markets can keep racing ahead, but I would be a keen observer just to see how these things play out) .
Hello @hitesh2710 sir ,
I don’t want to get caught in the ambush of the bear market and I have never seen one with much of my capital invested.
I have seen covid but did not act properly there and end up selling things except obviously tax saver fund.
Q1> How would you tread the periods of bear market?
Q2> How can I be ready for bear market without losing the joy of bull market?
Q3> How to be sure that bear market has arrived?
Q4> Any book recommendation to be ready for the bear market?
Q5> Does all the sector go down in bear market or there are outliers?
Q6> Does techno funda approach work in bear market?
Q7> Does all stocks PE correct or there will be some outliers? If yes, what is the percentage of outliers?
This question is more significant as recently I have decided to increase my direct small and midcap portfolio percentage and I don’t want to be caught in ambush.
20% us stocks directly plus index(no new investment now)
20% fixed assets
20% direct small and mid caps stocks
30% ppfas tax saver and nifty index fund
10% small cap mfs
I am not the right person to Answer your question as I also have not seen the Crash Or bear Market with Considerable Amount Invested. But I was in the same dilemma 2 years back when I started Investing and asked the similar question to Hitesh Sir and you can refer below:
What I have experienced from my limited experience is that You have to select Best Companies with Nearterm or midterm Growth Potential and your portfolio will do well over long time.
I suggest you before you start investing with considerable capital by your own, Learn Fundamental And Technicals from SOIC and read books of Peter Lynch, Stan Weinstin and Williom O Neil.
After reading and learing all this start practicing with Limited Amount which you afford to loose.
Develop Buying and Selling Rules, System and Process. Fine tune it with Limited Capital.
Once you develop the confidance and you Master Risk Management by which you shall be sure that You should not loose your own capital and even Major Chunk of Paper Profit during Crash or Bear Market then only start by your own with considerable amount.
As Buffet says Investing is Simple but definitely not EASY.
The best way to avoid bear markets is to refrain from investing. One of the famous quotes attributed to Charlie Munger is " Tell me where I am going to die and I won’t go there" In stock markets, bear markets are part and parcel of the game. If you are too scared of them, or want to avoid them altogether better not invest on your own. Ideal thing in such a scenario would be to invest through SIP in a disciplined way for 10-15 years and hope for the best.
@Anand_Dharsandia has provided a good list of books and guidelines to follow with respect to your queries.
Most investors after years of experience will not be able to predict exact time of bear markets. So trying to predict them is a pipe dream.
I have been seriously investing in markets since 2008-09 and since then have faced many bear markets of varying intensity and duration and still have come up to fight another day. That’s the spirit to have if you are investing on your own. No one likes a bear markets but its tough to predict one and always get it right.
I’m surprised why one should worry about bear market or bull market… Just treat the stocks as your own company or as your own asset… no owners sold their business during Chinese Virus , rather many promoters added their own shares… So why do you sell it if its not your emergency need.
sir,ur view in agi greenpac can this company give 20% gr next 2 yr.and the current valuation is good to go.
The reason probably why I sold things in 2020, because I was not aware that what happens in correction or bear market and hence there was a expectation mismatch and that was a unknown territory.
Obviously I am not thinking of doing this next time but I could do other mistakes.
Hence wanted to understand your experiences and learnings of bear market and what works in it.
What are the things that work in bull market that does not work in bear market?
Is there any book through which I can get the sense of the bear market and hence set my expectations?
The question might seem repetitive but I want to know any way through which I can gain experiences of the bear market without being in one.
I have gone through SOIC course and read books by pat dorsey, willian neil(not completely though but mostly) and peter lynch.