If my way of investing helps you in anyway… I love bear markets. Its where the opportunity is. I sometimes get overwhelmed as to what to buy and what to sell (my laggards). I just keep waiting for a bear market. Bull markets are boring with nothing much to do for me, just check sometimes so as not to miss any abnormality.
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Hello Hitesh Sir.
Recently I saw your webinar on youtube where you mentioned and talked highly about “The Wyckoff Method”. I have gone through O’Niel and Minervini’s style of investing and was curious about the wyckoff method too. If you can please guide me to some resources or books where I can understand this method in much more detail.
Thanks in advance.
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I also have only recently started looking at the Wycoff Patterns. It was originally a theory put forward by Richard Wycoff . You can get a schematic diagram of the Wycoff method easily on google and take things forward from there. You might also get to see videos on the topic on Youtube.
I have not gone too deep into the topic but can recognise a Wycoff pattern when I see one. Plan is to go ahead and get a grasp of things in details.
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Hi Hitesh, what’s your view on Gujarat Fluorochemicals?
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Could you please share the link of the webinar?
Gud mng sir…I have deep respect for u for ur selfless service and advice.
sir i am a govt employee(doctor). As there are lot of talks about position sizing but we as salaried class dont have enough money in hand to deploy at once. By the time next salary comes, the stock we have entered already have given runup then how to go big in one stock…i ended up buying more no. stocks like this as same stock(entered before) becomes overvalued. How to solve this dilemma. what are ur views on this?
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@hitesh2710 Sir please share any video/book from which a new investor can learn about how to read balance sheet, P&L etc and how any retail investor filter exceptional business and avoid its loss from company who is manipulating the data.
A question for everyone on this thread - I have been investing 80% of my portfolio directly in equities and have underperformed against Small Cap/Mid Cap indexes this calendar year (see image).
Also find it a bit hard to track all the new names/sector rotations that keep coming up - first was railway, then PSU banks, now Midcap IT.
Wanted your perspective on if I should move to mutual funds or stick it out for a few years?
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This is Dr. Hitesh’s thread. He answers our questions, along with posting his views, in this thread.
You can post your question here, if it is general in nature.
If you want to share your PF, and want members’ views, then you can open a separate thread.
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Very relevant question me and my friends also sailing in the same boat. So we are thinking to switch fully to MF.
Or someone expert in this forum guide us
No expert but let me share my opinion.
First of all you want to maximize return with the least risk possible and also with minimum effort.
So, you select a investment way that offers you the best risk reward or risk adjusted return. So, It’s a prudent thing to invest via MFs
Please consider the following things.
- If you are underperforming in a calendar year then it may not give the right picture. For ex. If you invested in chemical cos, you have underperformed but the same PF may outperform the index in next 2-3 years. So, the data you’ve shared in not enough to decide whether you’re skilled enough to invest directly
- Look at the Risk reward ratio: The smallcap and midcap indices can fall 30-40%, but probably you’re portfolio is robust enough, so it may not fall as much. In this case underperformance is justified. It may mean that you underperform the market in good times and overperform in bad times
However, if you think that you don’t have enough skill or time to invest directly it’s better to leave to an expert. You can develop you skill and build confidence in your self by managing may be 10-20% of your portfolio on your own. A few years down the line, based on your performance you can decide on whether to manage all your money by yourself or not ?
Disc: Not an expert. Please use your own diligence
Praveen
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The only real answer I can give on this is - judge your Passion-level!
At times, even though we may underperform an index in any given year, we are so passionate about doing our own researches, understanding the world better, and hence connecting the dots in making our own decisions that we could accept sub-optimal returns in a short-to-mid-term viewpoint. Hopefully our passion makes up for that over the long term, through increased happiness in pursuing this journey (which may hopefully translate to outperformance over a long term)!
If the goal is purely the outcome, and to beat or match indexes, then the decision is usually easy - avoid exposure to direct-to-equities.
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For salaried people, the ideal thing to do is to first build a decent corpus by saving in fixed income instruments or by SIP in mutual funds over a period of few years. And utilise that time to learn the ropes of investing. Once a decent amount is available and enough knowledge is acquired during that time, there will be enough of funds and knowledge both.
Other option is to have a list of few select companies and have certain price levels set where its lucrative to invest in them. So if a couple of stocks from a list of 10-15 have run up, one can choose from rest of them.
One thing I have noticed in most new investors entering markets during bull phase ( the lure of making big money during bull markets is at its peak) is that they want to jump right into the markets without proper knowledge on how to analyse companies and how the markets work. Mistakes made during bull markets are likely to be very costly especially for new investors starting off with their hard earned money.
Learning to invest is a serious endeavour, almost similar to clearing medical studies. It requires equal amount of passion and devotion. The path is simple, reading well recommended books ( pointed out many times in the past in this and other threads) , observe how things work in the markets, follow few good investors, connect with them and try to learn, so on. But it takes time and efforts. So even if one misses the current bull run, the learning will be useful in the next bull run. Stock markets always have had bull and bear markets off and on, so there should be no fear of missing out.
@pcygnii Fluorochem is showing price strength after a long time. I don’t track it too closely now.
@hitesh97 You can check this or other threads to find out list of books needed to be read for learning about investing.
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The 39% return you have shown is slightly inferior to small and midcaps index, but better than Nifty. Nearly double the Nifty returns. That should be a cause for encouragement for you.
Whether you should stick on or move to mutual funds depends upon your own perspective. Whether you are ready to learn from books, your own mistakes of omission or commision, whether you are ready to put in the hard yards by trying to look at more companies and analyse them.
You should not be discouraged by claims of other people over social media or other platforms of outsized returns. It’s human nature to boast of successes and hide failures. And we have no means of verifying their claims.
Investing on our own is a solitary game and requires a lot of self discipline. And most new investors getting in the market during their early years will tend to underform the comparable indices. Few of them get lucky or are extremely smart or both and start off the blocks right away. For others, its a constant journey of learning and then earning, in that order.
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Thnku so much sir for guidance.
Sir I am hearing from so many experts that if u are missing this growth story of India for 5-7 years in stock market then u are missing everything.How to take up this as suffering from fomo?
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hello hitesh ji
hope you are doing well
some investor i wont mention name said in you tube video few days ago technicalcharts has only 20% chances in making money and fundamental has 80%…how will you read this ?
@hitesh2710 sir any method or screening tool to find out the proxy business? What are the ways to find out proxy businesses?
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Hitesh Sir, I want to be a long term investor with aim of holding fundamentally strong stocks for long term. But below factors have increased the number of stocks in my portfolio substantially :
- Allure of benefiting from momentum investing
- Fear of missing out on sectoral tailwinds ( EV, Green Energy, Power, Railways, Financial, Capital Goods, AI, Defence, Infra…so many sectoral tailwinds )
- Fear of missing out on high growth stocks
- Suggestions from investment gurus
Please guide the best strategies to counter this and the best ways of portfolio allocation & portfolio management for an aspiring long term investor like me.
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