Hi,Hiteshbhai
Can U throw your view on PCBL?
CHART LOOKS GOOD, ALSO CAPEX R DONE, PLZ SHARE YOUR VIEWS.
THANKS
KRUNAL
There is structural shift is happening in Carbon Black Supply Chain starting from Raw Material to Finished Good Demand.
China has gone due to environmental norms and other raw material issues. Russia has banned by Western countries.
Only option left with western world is India. And all supply vacuum from China and Russia shall be filled by India. Moreover PCBL is the only Largest and Efficient Indian Manufacturer which will definitely capitalise to this opportunity.
Also PCBL is improving sales from Speciality Grade Carbon Black which is with higher and stable margin. So in future Operating Margin will improve.
Investment Thesis is: Sales Growth, Operating Margin Improvement, PAT and ROCE expansion, May announce large capex soon (recent conference call), Rerating opportunity in valuation
What can go wrong: China again entering market, crude oil prices remaining very high for long, Auto industry slowdown (high sales of CB in Tyres)
Disc: Invested (May be biased) with Large Allocation @ 150.
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Could you please provide some Data or Reference links which suggests production impacts in China and Russia?
I donāt track PCBL. I usually track only a few other companies beyond the ones I already own. These are mainly stand by candidates in case I have to replace any company in my portfolio. Or in some other cases where I feel that itās worth studying and following that company for a variety of reasons.
Wherever I find any interesting technical picks I share in the 52 weeks high thread.
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Hitesh Sir
As a retail investor, Is it possible to identify Next sector in line at early stage ?
Q1. Typically, by what time frame/by which means do retail investors become aware of a promising sector ?
Q2. Which could be the Big funds/ Big guys to follow, to learn about the sector in the favour ?
If i find recently launched certain quant fund investing in telecom hardware, telecom software, telecom infrastructure, Can we say telecom could be one of the next sector in focus ?
Warm Regards
You have to read past 1-2 year earning calls to get grip of the story. Also go through VP thread of PCBL .
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Hi Hitesh - How has being a full time investor changed things for you?
- Are there things you can do now (investing - wise) that you couldnāt earlier, if so what are they?
- Are you able to cast a wider net in terms of companies you can research etc?
Donāt want to ask too many specific questions, want to keep it more open ended and for you to answer this question however you like, just wanted to get your experience of how being a āfull timeā investor has differed from your previous experiences.
Clearly achieving financial freedom is a precursor to jumping in full time as an investor, But on behalf of the rest of us that have also taken the plunge - wanted to get an idea of how your experience has differed from our own. 
Thanks & god bless
Rohit
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It is more easy for a retail investor to spot the next sector if he/she keeps observing price actions in various sectors over a period of time.
Simplest thing to do is to keep watching the 52 weeks high list on a regular basis. If a lot of stocks from the same sector start featuring in this list on a consistent basis, then it makes sense to have a look at chart patterns of individual stocks.
If most of them start showing bullish formations of similar or different kinds, then it adds to the conviction. Next step is to listen to the commentary of these companies wherever possible and do some digging.
If all the above things fall in place, then you have probably stumbled on to the next big sector. Next thing is to observe the behaviour of these bunch of stocks during days where markets are weak. If these show more resilience as compared to overall markets, and start moving once the market start a strong rally, then you have hit the jackpot. Within these group of stocks some of them will often move quickly, rest will follow.
But there are some sectors typically related to cyclical industries, where the cycles tend to run shorter. In other sectors often the rallies last much longer. Observing sectors in fancy over a period of time helps in figuring out these things.
Personally I do not folllow what big guys/big funds or quant funds are doing. I have described the process I follow above and usually that helps in getting into a few sectors early on. Many a times I miss a sector or two due to various reasons, but thatās something thatās okay to live with. We donāt need to win all the races. Idea is to make the most of your winners.
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@hitesh2710 - Would you be able to share your current bet-sizing strategy and how it has evolved over time?
Is it still about 8 to 10 stocks with 10 to 15% allocation - as in the past?
Interesting being asked this question. 
Itās been nearly 4 years since I took voluntary retirement from my government job. I practice dermatology for only 1 hour a day, 5 days a week. This is more because of choice than any other factor. I have been enjoying my full time investing career immensely. And as you mentioned, financial freedom is an extremely important factor to consider before jumping full time into investing. For me, that was achieved well before I retired from my job.
Regarding things in investing that I can do now as compared to earlier , these things remain the same. The investment style has not changed much. I still remain very selective in the companies I invest in or track. But time wise, I can do stock research at the time of my choosing, and when I am in the zone, the productivity is much more. And clarity that emerges when you do things at the most opportune times is also good.
The more important difference I feel in my life has been in the quality of life. Not having any timelines to reach job site, not having to answer to anyone is a great feeling. And doing things you want to do without having to worry about other commitments is fun.
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@hitesh2710 sir Thanks for helping everyone here. Regarding full time investor career . Retirring in 30s having enough for 20 years and with a thought that even with a bad situation market will bounce back in 5-10 years and in regular situation 15% cagr is expected . Is this a good thought to retire? your valuable advice would be helpful 
Position sizing strategy remains as before. Anywhere from 6 to 10 stocks with starting allocations at around 10-15%. If position runs up due to sharp run ups, I allow it to run sometimes even to 30-35% of overall PF , but when I feel there is some chances of correction after sharp run up, I trim the position to bring it to comfort levels. If I find that the techno funda picture fits in perfectly and I have a clear idea about the company at the time of entry, I allocate high levels of 15-20% at entry levels itself, but these are rare instances.
This is a style and strategy that suits me as of now, so continuing with it.
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Equity investing is a long and a lonely journey. And its filled with periods of emotional turmoil during sharp market crashes. So being a full time investor has its own set of problems.
Usually during bull markets a lot of people aspire to become full time investors, and start dreaming of financial freedom. Nothing wrong with this notion, but there are some factors to consider.
Personally I enjoy full time investing because I have a lot of other hobbies that keep me busy. But that may not be everyoneās situation.
Planning to retire at the age of 30 has its own set of problems. Itās the age when people get married and settled in life with kids and all. From that age onwards, expenses are expected to keep going up for many years to come. So all these factors have to be kept in mind while planning early retirement in the 30s.
Plus any occupation has its own honeymoon period which may last for different years for different people. So we also have to think about potential burnout even in fields of investing after a period of time.
And besides this the crux of the whole equation is about having a starting capital and generating enough returns to keep the life journey going at expected living standards which often are pre set.
I have ennumerated the various aspects to consider while planning early retirement and planning financial freedom. Hope it helps you.
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Thanks, Hiteshbhai,
Iām not sure if I should ask or not, so itās okay if you choose not to reply. Iām curious about a few things:
- other hobbies that keep me busy - if you donāt mind, what are those?
- At what age did you get the idea that you should quit your job?
- How your total PF? I believe you have a house youāre living in, as well as a farm house. Do you have any other properties or investments you made before deciding to quit your job?
Iām asking because Iām in a dilemma about what to choose, it will surely help me to make my mind. Thanks.
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Sir i too being a doc MD medicine, i get inspired by reading ur blogsā¦sir i too i m in job jobā¦i mostly do positional n swing trading due to lack of timing in jobā¦kindly guve ur valuable opinion on how to allocate our money in different investment instruments. Thanking your sir
Hobbies are aplenty. From reading fiction, watching movies, sports, travelling, trekking, swimming, etcā¦ Many things that can keep me occupied in my spare time.
About job I had a govt job which was pensionable if I took voluntary retirement after completing 20 years of continuous job and paperwork was in order. My plan always had to be retired by 50. It took a couple of more years mainly because of some job related paper work was taking time.
Portfolio amount needed to retire would depend upon various factors. Whether there is any other source of income, ( in my case I am happily placed with govt pension) , kind of lifestyle, any future major financial burdens like kids education, marriages, etc. I have a couple of properties which yield rental income but in overall scheme of things it is not much.
All these retirement and financial freedom plans have to thought about carefully, and in consultation with family members and preferably with someone who knows a little bit about financial planning. Or else overshoot portfolio amount needed to retire by a comfortable margin so that these matters stated above take a backseat.
@bireswar_saha I may not be the right person to advise on allocation to various investment instruments. Most of my networth is into equities and its been so since nearly 10 years now. But that may not suit everyone. Regarding positional and swing trading etc that you are doing, whichever style of investment you pursue, it has to be with full commitment and passion. First comes proper learning whatever you want to practice, next comes toe dipping with reasonable amounts of money and once success and confidence is achieved in this mode, increase allocation over a period of time once expertise increases.
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Mental Models for multibaggers.
This was a presentation I gave at a recent doctors investment seminar at Surat and subsequently Abhishek and me decided to conduct a webinar on the same topic for a broader audience.
@prudent_investor has created a nice cheat sheet of the presentation.
Sharing the presentation, cheat sheet and youtube link.
Hope it helps folks in developing mental frameworks in finding out multibaggers.
Mental Models Cheat Sheet.pdf (134.6 KB)
The search for multibaggers.pdf (1.3 MB)
Its a long nearly 2 hours webinar, so take your time.
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Hitesh Bhai: Seek your BLINK commentary on the technical picture for the below chart:
- WEEKLY
- Green Solid Line - 40WEMA
- My inference: Base in place [Horizontal,solid+thick, Line]. Long Term Uptrend line honored multiple times in the recent months [Upward Slopping Dotted Line]. VCP Pattern formed in the last 2 Yrs. and expect a bullish breakout [direction of the prior uptrend].
- Did not publish name to keep the view technical.
TIA.
The chart is a typical triangular consolidation. Triangles are tricky structures, so its better to be sure while taking entry. Either it has to be at strong support or after definite confirmation of a breakout with volumes , or preferably gap up with volumes. Plus fundamentally needs to be high conviction if it is a medium to long term big position.
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@hitesh2710 Sir,
Would love to know your views on the chart of snowman logistics. On fundamental side the Balance sheet is improving after the company is reducing debt with consistent cash flows. The promoters have been buying from the open market.
