Update on J&K Bank posted 52 week highs and all time highs strategy - #677 by hitesh2710
@rahulnigam99 I don’t track Unichem.
@Shakti_Srivastava I don’t track Apar
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@hitesh2710 Sir,
Greetings of the day!
I am a long term investor, preferably 15/20 years or beyond time horizon (at least that is what I want… 
). In the current market context, I find the private banking space an attractive bet. I already have HDFC Bank in my portfolio and want to load Kotak Bank in my portfolio. I like the valuation of Kotak bank (based on Historical PE - DCF always shows undervalue for banks), please share you thought on my choice from the private banking space and oblige.
If your investment horizon is for next 15-20 years, then it does not even matter if you buy a 100 rupees up or down in case of companies like HDFC Bank or Kotak bank… In fact there seem to be very few companies which will fit the bill for this kind of time period. So you can choose from companies with visibility of survival and growth for that period of time.
Personally speaking, I have never thought of investment beyond next 2-3 years. So I am not too sure if I am even the right person to be answering this kind of question.
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Hi Hiteshbhai,
Any advise on how to track those group of investors for catching early sectoral play?
Thank you,
Pranav
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Dear sir, I want to ask you a question.
I am an investor in Relinace, have been doing SIP for a few years now, and except for the news that reach me about the company, I was not following its businesses in any way, and I chose to invest, because it is the largest conglomerate, and there will be eventual demergers, and as such, I will be having some shares of the individual entities as time goes by.
I haven’t reached the point of stopping the SIP process, there isn’t any such point per se, but the allocation hasn’t reached any level to be substantial in the PF, nor it is meaningful and makes me feel good, and now Jio is listed separately. I did not expect this to happen this soon, but it has.
So my question is, what can be done now? Sell Jio as the CMP is very much higher than the cost it was allotted at, and if the CMP is the highest it will ever be, selling now is correct, or continue adding to Reliance, and keep Jio as it is, or adding to both Reliance and Jio, and if that is the case, I have to add to the future demergers too, which I don’t think I will, because that would be buying without any knowledge of the businesses.
Except for some elementary understanding of how individual businesses got spawned from large companies and in some cases have become big, and have rewarded the investors of the original company, I have no experience.
This is my first demerger of a long term holding sir, I have had little experience with demergers before which happened with short term positions, and I sold them off after listing.
So can you throw some light on this, thank you.
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A lot of valuepickr threads are a good source to follow to catch sectoral plays.
Other is to follow some high quality investors in social media like Twitter etc, check their track record after following them for a while and then take a call.
Other is to try and cultivate rapport with anyone good at this kind of stuff.
I try to catch these themes by looking at charts and then following it up with fundamental research.
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I have always found Reliance a difficult company to analyse. Petchem, retail, telecom, and a host of other start up like businesses, and now this Jio financial listing.
I have no idea about Jio financial, what it plans to do and how it plans to grow. So it’s difficult to value this kind of business.
Reliance over the very long term has created a lot of wealth for investors
But I have never invested seriously in it, except for some situations where there have been technical breakouts.
And I doubt if I will want to own it, in view of so many faster options available in current markets. My idea is always to make the most out of bull markets, and in the calls you get right. That helps when the bear markets inevitably follow and take back some percentage of the returns.
I don’t know what kind of view to express for someone owning RIL and Jio financial…
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Dear Hitesh,
About a year ago, I read a good article about Abbott India in ET and bought a small quantity. I never expected the share price to jump the way it has. If you look at the sales record of the company, its nothing spectacular, ranges from 5-10% annual growth in most years. Dividend yield at current price is < 1%. So, I cannot fathom why the share price has moved from, 18k to around 23k now, even touching 24k. Is it because of some new proprietary products from the parent’s portfolio to be launched in India? Or is it a case of rising tide lifting all boats? Appreciate if you can provide your perspective.
one advantage that Jio FS has is the massive amount of telecom customers and their data. With the thousands of retails stores , the distribution becomes much easy . Looks promising to me, but NBFC is very crowded place to start in
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Sorry for commenting in between, with Jio finance listed at mcap much greater than companies like HDFC Life and among NBFCs only Bajaj Finance/Finserv having mcap more than Jio finance…this looks like a Nykaa moment to me when Nykaa grew mcap more than double of Tata’s Trent and today its precisely the other way round…
Disc: Invested in HDFC Life & Trent and burnt fingers in Nykaa hence biased. Not a buy/sell recommendation. Views only for academic purposes and I can be wrong in all my assessments.
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I don’t follow Abbott India so not much idea about fundamentals of the company. In absence of any significant earnings growth, if stock price manages to go up, its mainly due to bull markets and as you said, rising tide lifting all boats. However a move from 18k to 23k in percentage terms is hardly 30% which in the context of current bull market is not a big move.
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Hello, Hitesh Sir. Going by Techno Funda and the multi-year high strategy, I came across Japanese MNC, Yuken India(Mcap 900 cr). Its stock hit a 4 year high today with the highest volume for this period recorded in last 2 days. Until 2021, it was a BSE stock, so the NSE data is only from late 2021 onward.
Most recent developments-
The company is into hydraulic machinery and in the last quarter the parent company bought 1 million shares at 670 per share. In their disclosure yesterday, they mentioned that they are going to do technology transfer from their Japanese entity to India, expand the current product line and use India as a base to cater to newer markets.
Risk- The current valuations are very rich.
Would be grateful if you could take a look at the chart and share your thoughts if it’s worth exploring further.
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Attached Yuken India chart shows a breakout from (as you said) 4 year high resistance at 684. There is a nice rounding saucer shaped structure, so overall chart looks bullish. But fundamentally I cannot see much encouraging if I look at the results for the last few years. So one needs to be careful jumping the gun and going full throttle. Maybe going through annual report, AGM recording (if available) or doing scuttlebutt, looking at the products of parent company etc could help. I don’t track it fundamentally or know about its products or their prospects.
If at all one wants to look at it based on charts, its best to wait for a retest of breakout zone and then take a call. If it does not come down and keeps running up, then better look out for something else.
(PS… Someone started a whole thread about a company on this portfolio thread and I had to delete it. If you want to start a thread on a company, please start it at an appropriate place)
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@MorningStar Two vital fundamental changes happened in last qtr. are 1.Yuken Kogyo Co. Limited, the technical and financial collaborator of your company, has increased its stake in the company by 4.62% with a capital infusion of 62.90 crore in June 2023 (Chairman’s message AR) 2. Your company will now be setting up capacity to manufacture the complete range of products available in the group.This investment will fund the objective to manufacture for customers in India and also to capitalize on its competitiveness to manufacture for customers across the world. (MD’s message AR)
But multiple its trading at and past revenue records aren’t attractive enough as mentioned by Hiteshbhai
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Dear sir, I would like to ask you another question.
If one is reasonably sure with a chart, and want to look at fundamentals too to take a big position, where should the focus be in the business, which are the nitty gritty to focus on for the short term, the important aspects, as the position is purely a speculative bet and not a long term investment.
If one wants to invest in a business, there is no limit to the research, which is proven time and again by many members in the forum, and one can approach a business in many ways, but these are long term holdings, not positional trades. So no research is too much research.
My question is just about short term bets, which things need to be checked, and where should this checking stop? And is there an ideal time for such bets to come out of, if there is no movement in the price due to the fundamentals not changing, which was the thesis to take the bet as fundamentals are also involved, and as new opportunities are visible in the market.
I have some understanding of FA and TA and have got mixed results doing them separately, but no idea about the process of FA+TA, so asking the question.
Thank you.
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For short term technical picks, described as positional trading, which entails investing for a few weeks to few months, too much fundamental analysis is often not needed. Mind you, this type of investing is most profitable in a roaring bull market.
At best, you can have a look at quarterly numbers, promoter integrity, balance sheet etc to weed out the garbage quality stocks. These too can go up in a bull market, but personally I prefer my short term bets also to be of reasonable quality in terms of business and management.
Here the most important thing to figure out is the possible trigger for an upmove. If that is easily identified and company meets other criteria for a decent business, a big position can be taken. If your portfolio is big, then you need to check out the liquidity in terms of number of shares traded also, so that entry and exit are easy.
Most of the times, these short term bets are sectoral bets and hence it makes sense to check on sectoral tailwinds. And then select a few stocks from the sector. I usually go for a number 1 or 2 as one candidate and other couple of candidates from lower down the pecking order. In sectoral rallies, usually the ones that come down the pecking order tend to do well. But if the rally reverses, the solid companies will correct the least. So we have to position accordingly.
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Dear @hitesh2710 ji
NCC has crossed multi-year highs (15 years I guess). May I know how it looks in the technical charts, can it take out it’s lifetime highs (price above 200)?
Dear @hitesh2710 ji
Xpro India touched its 52 week high 6 weeks ago and is near its all time high .
may you please share how it looks like on the chart 
We have a whole thread on 52 weeks high and all time highs and a lot of stocks are discussed there. You can search the stock you are interested in that particular thread and get views of anyone who has posted on these charts.
Stocks crossing 52 weeks highs and all time highs usually do so because of strong business tailwinds, or sometimes because of perception of strong business tailwinds. Most important aspect of this type of investing is to keep a close eye on exact breakout levels and try to buy very close to those levels at the time of breakout, or if there is a subsequent retest, then try to buy during that retest at close to support levels.
And if you are into this type of strategy, please read a few books like William O Neil’s How to make money in stocks, Ivayly Ivanov’s The next apple, Mark Minervini books etc. That should provide some background on how to invest based on this strategy.
Stocks crossing these key levels have had a strong run up, and can often consolidate for long periods of time, or can give sharp or mild corrections and we have to have our own conviction regarding these companies we invest in. I keep posting charts of stocks where I find interesting set ups on the above mentioned thread. Idea should be to learn to spot these set ups in other companies by getting a grasp of patterns of various companies discussed with charts put up.
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Thank you for your reply @hitesh2710 ji
Had one more question -
While technically accessing a stock which indicators do you use and how much weightage do you give to indicators like RSI , MACD , bollinger bands and EMA’s
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