@hitesh2710 , Good Day Hitesh Ji, May i ask you view on HBL power in long term and the recent run ups.
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HBL is a very well discussed company on Valuepickr. Company announced good results for q1 fy 24 today. You can go through all these resources , do some in depth research and take a call.
Personally I have been invested in this company and remain bullish, but thatâs my view and since I am invested in it, my views can be biased. If you want to invest, you will have to take a call doing all the due diligence. Good thing is there is no shortage of learned opinions on VP.
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sir please share your view on MAHANAGAR GAS (MGL)
@hitesh2710 bhai,
Can you share your views on Glenmark Life science (GLS)?
The company was listed two years back and havenât crossed the IPO price yet. However, after making a low of around 360 in March 2023, the stock has run up close to 70% in 3-4 months. Results of last two quarters have been really good for both generic API and CDMO division of their business. They have been reporting good and consistent margins around 30% and with falling raw material prices the management is confident of maintaining the margins at least for this year.
Even after the recent run up the stock seems to be reasonably priced with Mcap/sales around 3 and PE around 16. Parent company Glenmark pharma is in talks with investor to sell their holdings.
Appreciate if you can share your views.
Regards,
Suhag
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Hi Hitesh sir
Intersted to know your views on Manappuram
finance .
It has posted a stellar result this quarter and is in strong momentum and is going through a long consolidation and formed I feel a half cup and
handle .
Will it form a full cup and handle and will reach its all time high of 220 and then go above
Will highly appreciate your expert view
Thanks
Mahesh
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I donât track Manappuram fundamentally. On charts it seems to be gradually moving up, but I cannot see any specific pattern. There is nothing like half a cup because going ahead we do not know how things can pan out⌠The best that can be said about Manappuram chart is it seems to be in an uptrend⌠How long it lasts and how high it can go needs to be seen.
@suhagpatel I donât track GLS.
@ramanu05 I donât track MGL.
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if you track them.Dear @hitesh2710 Hiteshji,
How do you see the overall markets now. Nifty and large caps looks like reversed the trend. BSE small cap index going up. 1 month basis nifty is 2.3% down and BSE small cap.index is 4.6% up. I was reading the thesis by Mr. Nooresh Merani @nooreshtech ?) that when ratio between the two trends above 1.8 and when a diversion between these two is danger zone.
Also, how do you see GAIL stock price movement. Looks like the stock price is sideways, but slopping down. The recent previous high is around 112-113 and currently the stock is trading there. Do you keep stoploss around 110-112 levels or will you give more leeway ? RSI below 50, stock below 20 day moving average, close to 110 which is 50 day moving average.
Thanks for your generous and expert views as one of the best informal teacher on stock markets.
HI Hiteshbai,
What about Bajaj Finance? In the last two years instead of excellent performance from all fronts- increase in the number of customers, AUM, Deposit growth etc., the stock remains at the same level. Appreciate your technical analysis on that.
Nifty and Sensex are in a corrective mode ever since hitting levels close to 20k. ( 19991 to bre precise) Nifty crossed its previous all time high of 18900 and went to the above quoted levels. After such a sharp rally, I think some amount of cooling is expected and desirable. The whole previous rally from 16800 to near 20k has been viewed skeptically by a lot of market participants. And bull markets thrive on skepticism. We are into the fourth week of correction in Nifty and hardly give up 5% from the top.
And while the overall markets are correcting, the small and midcaps are having a good time. Someone who has been sector specific and stock specific has had a good time. Many stocks in specific sectors, e.g PSU and PSU banks are holding out all right. In fact in past few days, there has been a sharp rally in the smaller PSU banks like IOB, JK Bank, Central Bk , MahaBank, UCO bank, just to name a few I track. If markets were in sharp corrective mode, usually everything falls. But in our markets its not so. So I think this is a routine correction, maybe a well deserved rest for an overheated Nifty and Sensex.
How this correction pans out and if and when it completes, is a matter of conjecture. I usually am not too fond of forecasting overall markets as I have seen very few people get it right consistently. Its much more easy to find out individual patterns in charts and check fundamental triggers and then take positions, and still if there are those (routine) corrections in these names , then so be it.
I do not follow the methods and ratios followed by Nooresh Merani. So not much idea about it. But having followed him through his writing, I think he has a very good track record of catching market turns and he does it in uncomplicated ways with lot of sensible logic.
GAIL chart pattern I discussed before also. It has broken out of a strong resistance band and now retesting that breakout zone. Sometimes, these corrections go slightly deeper and longer than expected. For stocks that have broken out of strong resistances, the simplest moving average to follow for near term is the 10 WEMA. And then for longer term, the 30 WEMA. I donât have any predecided stop losses in GAIL but as long as the structure appears okay, I would hold on.
@Garuna I donât track UPL or LIC.
@SAGHOS01 Bajaj finance chart you put up clearly shows it is range bound between levels approximating 5500-8000 In fact one can draw a symmetrical triangle on weekly charts. Any major move could come about once it breaks out of this broad range or from triangle.
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Dear Hitesh Bhai @hitesh2710
I follow fundamental based investing and had purchased PFC 3-4 years back and it kept languishing around Rs 100-150 and now suddenly the stock has caught marketâs fancy and it has breached all time high and moved to Rs 270. The stock has also entered MSCI index and has become a large cap. While the PE is still low at about 4x, the pace of the rally (almost a vertical move) is unnerving. Pasting the all time chart here:
Would love to understand your technical view on the stockâŚ
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Dear sir, regarding the PFC question asked above, there are 3 almost same tops visible, and another 2 similar tops. So the price couldnât move up beyond those highs, how does this happen?
Do all the buyers who want to buy know about the fundamentals of the business, know about earnings and future profits, so they did not want to buy at higher prices than those highs, and with stocks like these, a PSU, who want to buy are buying with good knowledge and will not beyond the previous highs, they are that particular, so price fails to move despite multiple attempts? What about non-PSUs?
I am of the opinion that not all buyers in every stock are that aware of valuations, such that they will not bid beyond a price, so even if such investors exist, they are less in number, and the majority of buyers are concerned about the price they pay, so price fails to move beyond a level.
I may have digressed, my question is sir, why and how these tops are formed, almost precise?
And the above memberâs question is I guess an extension to my question, if indeed such tops are broken, with such volume, what does that mean?
Thank you.
I can talk a bit about fundamentals - The reason PFC and REC started coming down was NPAs in the private sector thermal plants and this problem could be seen reversing 3-4 years back and from then this pack has been trading at an unbelievable valuation (e.g recently PFC at 100 with the consolidated earnings at almost 60).
As far as renewables are concerned, it is not a new story and most of the loan growth has to come from this segment (as they donât have much of a choice). If you look at their 10 year top line/profit growth, it has been phenomenal.
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PFC had a major resistance at around 165-170, from where it fell twice In June 2014 and April 2017 and another higher even older resistance at around 192 in Oct 2010. Once these resistances were crossed, stock price went into a major upmove and currently has reached levels of around 270. When major multiple year highs are crossed, and favorable factors like cheap valuations, business tailwinds etc are present, these are the types of moves seen. That is why we have a whole 52 weeks high and all time highs thread.
@ChaitanyaC The probable answer to your question is that earlier PFC was considered only as a dividend play with questionable financials and people were worried about the NPAs piling up in their loan book. But once reforms related to power sector came into play, and investor sentiment towards power sector changed, the perception towards PFC , REC etc also changed and investors were less worried about NPAs.
Regarding your point about investors not paying a price beyond a certain point, there are different investors who think differently. Some pure momentum traders buy only based on momentum and for them crossing all time highs is more than enough reason to get into the stock. Then there are quant guys who join the party once they find out momentum in their quant systems.
Itâs often difficult to find out a reason for moves in a stock, atleast initially and many a times (more so these days with news leaking quickly through various mediums) the real reason for moves in stock price comes out much later.
There is a whole group of investors who track details of specific sectors they specialise in, with access to export data, scuttlebutt, raw material prices, finished product prices, shortages of products and other similar things. These investors get into companies much before any decent quarterly numbers or company specific news come about, because they have the information edge and they know how to analyse that information in terms of its impact on companyâs fundamentals.
The investment landscape has changed ( in parts) due to information edge, analytical edge, scuttlebutt edge, of some group of investors. Trying to find out reasons for each and every top and bottom is beyond my understanding and neither do I try to figure those out. If I do not have these skill sets, then price becomes my guide and I can follow these guys even if it is at a slightly higher price. And thatâs where technical analysis comes in. Technical analysts do not have to worry about what investor is thinking at the top or bottom, he is only guided by price and volume action.
We are currently going through a sectoral bull run in PSUs which started in defence and railway stocks, and now is followed by other PSU companies, and PSU banks. How long this kind of fancy lasts is anybodyâs guess. But if one is able to catch these sectoral rallies, a lot of money can be made in quick time.
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Thank you for the detailed reply sir, I could relate to many of points you have mentioned, and the others are learning. Your reply reinforced certain beliefs of mine, and you mentioning certain points is strengthening my efforts.
I do know that you want to participate where the puck is or will be, rather than where the buck has been, it will be a very long time like for participants like to me to reach such levels, but with the kind of knowledge and wisdom you so generously share, a lot of confusion is eliminated, thank you very much for that.
Like I had mentioned before, couldnât just like your post and go away, when you have spent so much time to answer my question in a detailed and clear manner, as always.
Thank you again sir.
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hi hitesh ji
Are you tracking lemon tree hotels?
JK Bank news is allover the place over the weekend⌠I think business wise it may not mean much, but sentiment wise could probably be slightly negative. Price action till now seems that it is not too important in the eyes of market participants⌠Need to see how stock price behaves in next few trading sessions.
@hitusohi1 I donât track Lemontree, but on charts it has given a good breakout.
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Hi Hitesh Sir !
As mid cap and small caps are on a rallyâŚ
Interested to know your take on stock Apar Industries which is fundamentally sound and having a huge tailwind as well ( considering demand in cables, infra & railways )⌠Regards