Hi Hitesh Sir,
Could you let me know your opinion on exide.
Its in Auto sector, B2B, B2C, repeat customer, consumables (3-4 years need replacement).
They are coming in Lithium Ion.
Dont understand why it is lying low at these low valuation. why the stock doesnt move?
Is there any hope to hold on to it?
Hi Sir, reading your replies under this thread has became my daily ritual. Thanks for your efforts to teach us. I am new to the market and done Safalniveshak and SOIC course.
Following question hold me back to make good size portfolio even if I allocate to well researched good companies.
How one can protect considerable net-worth invested in Equities from Big Drawdowns of 50-70%? (like Financial Crisis of 2008 and Covid of 2020, even once in 10years) can we use stop loss or any other hedging techniques?
Drawdowns in portfolios during bear markets is part and parcel of investing⌠If you cannot live with that, then you should not be investing⌠Most investors who have been in the markets for 10-15 or more years have inevitably experienced drawdowns to varying degrees and still lived to see another day.
Personally speaking, I had a dream run in my portfolio from 2009 (when I actually started serious investing) till 2017. And had decent portfolio returns⌠But come 2018 bear market and my portfolio lost nearly 40% from peak valuations. And this happened within a matter of an year. This was a time period during which the so called âqualityâ stocks outperformed handsomely and the small and midcaps, even the better ones never moved inspite of decent results. And I was in the latter basket. And post that, from 2019 to 2020, while there was some semblance of recovery, Covid again dented the portfolio and value went down even below the value seen during 2018-19 period. But post this, during the Covid rally, there were stupendous opportunities and we were lucky to have a wonderful ride that made up for all the earlier disappointments.
First and foremost, we have to have faith in our investing process and in the fact that serious wealth creation is possible by investing in good companies and riding them as long as possible. I read Warren Buffettâs autobiography Snowball and the biggest learning from me, (besides knowing a lot about WBâs life) was that it was possible to amass huge wealth by being serious at investing.
Once we have faced a couple of serious corrections and come out smiling, the faith to remain invested increases.
On limiting drawdowns, one can use various strategies adopted by different people. But practically speaking, its difficult to time the markets accurately all the time. You can get them right sometimes, and earn the right to brag, but its not possible to do it all the time. So one or the other correction is going to hit you hard, and you have to learn to ride it. One learning I have always had is that corrections always offer you chances to correct your mistakes provided you are ready to accept your mistakes and act on them. And this kind of action often leads to some serious winners in the ensuing bull run.
The holy grail of generating good portfolio returns is to be in sound companies (and/or companies with tailwinds) , and have the faith to ride out storms that inevitably come around during the journey.
@saurabhshares I donât track exide, so not much idea whatâs ailing it. Beats me why someone should get interested in a stock thatâs been a rank underperformer.
Can you throw some light on CALCOM, please? They recently crossed a 100Cr mark in the Last FY despite the multitude of challenges. Top line ie Sales grew increased by around 75% over last FY. PAT is Up 12% despite heavy cost pressures.
Their OFS was also a big success 5 times subscribed.
Seed investment here from MIT and Old bridge capital is also there who are marquee investors.
They got PLI in electronics too âMake in Indiaâ. Itâs also a china+1 beneficiary.
As per ELCOMA - India will manufacture more than 75% of components locally and also
Increase exports substantially by 2025.
Chart wise RS is above the 0 line + above all major WEMAs + confluence of some TL and Resistance Breakouts.
Hitesh bhai these days one or other sector catches fancy runs for a period of time and then money moves to another sector.
2017- Pharma
2018- API
2019-2020 - IT & Chemicals
2022 - Manufacturing & Defence
My question is how do you play such markets as moves of 40-60 % are already done .
These days Buy and Hold has been delivering a far lower return so higher churn leads to higher return. This was not true in earlier times ( correct me if I am wrong )
How should an investor be invested in such markets . May be different ways if you can highlighted.
The curiosity to move defensive plays to more momentum is always high in such markets .
Would appreciate your thought
Hello Hitesh bhai, as a newbie to market am always wondering what is Value & Growth stocks how are they different from each other and how are they identified either as Value or Growth stocks depending on what terms. And can you suggest some examples along with that. And would like to know more about them even if you suggest some books or resource to learn that would help me a lot. Thanks in advance.
You are spot on in terms of your observation that market fancies change quickly. I have observed that there are broadly two kinds of market fancies here. One is the slightly longer term which lasts few quarters and other kind is shorter term market fancy which lasts few months. While playing the latter, one has to be nimble and plan entries and exits properly. Examples of these in recent memory have been textiles, sugar, cement, steel (metals) etc.
While the more longer term fancy has been in capex related themes, EV related themes, defence, etc.
How to play and whether to play it or not at all depends upon the competence of the investor. Thankfully while practicing techno funda approach, we have been lucky enough to catch quite a few themes. For this one has to be on the constant lookout to see where momentum is building up and try to play it. And to catch these things early one has to be clued in to the fundamentals closely, monitor a lot of companies and see where positive tailwinds are emerging. I cannot enlarge on that subject as I do not practice that approach too much. What I do is what I document on the 52 weeks high thread and I find that simplest approach to implement. For more on the subject you can go through the thread on VP, or read books like The next apple, or William O neilâs book, or Mark Minervini, or preferably all of them.
@Gautam_Chopra I donât have any idea about Calcom.
@Paxrxxthi The answer to your question remains the same as before. Try to read few books and try to find out on VP where the list of books are put up. Donât expect any spoon feeding on VP forum. We try to help those that help themselves. No free lunches. If you cannot make the effort to read a few posts, or find out a thread on which book reviews are written, I donât know how you expect anyone to help you.
Since the question of which books to read are asked frequently on this thread, putting up a list of books I have found very useful in my journey.
Fundamental analysis.
One up on wall street by Peter Lynch.
Five rules for successful stock investing. by Pat Dorsey.
Zebra in lion country by Ralph Wanger.
Technicals
Technical analysis of stock trends by Edwards and Magee. (there are many others but essentially most of them cover same topics, so one can pick and choose)
Developing an investment style.
For techno funda approach
How to make money in stocks by William o neil.
The next apple by Ivayly Ivanov.
Think and trade like a stock market champion by Mark Minervini
(Trade like a stock market wizard by Minervini)
Above should suffice for a beginner.
And the importance of repeated readings of these books should be stressed. Because many a times grasping the concepts in these books will entail multiple readings.
Hope this list gets pinned somewhere so that it doesnt need repetition. 
I felt pin feature is a sorely missed feature herr. It can save a lot of redundant discussion in almost every thread
You can bookmark a post and access all the bookmarked posts from your profile page.
Pin is used by the owner/admin to convey to everyone what post is important. It is not for the visitors to pin a post (deleting my post in some time I will instead message the admins).
Hi Hitesh sirâŚmy query is regarding when to sell a stock when it is making life time highs and has become big part of the portfolio suddenlyâŚfor example In my PF Mirza Int and Mazagon Dock we 5% initial allocation each but now they form almost 50% of pfâŚPlease guide.
First of all congratulation on landing big winners in your portfolio, and having the patience to hold on to them.
When to sell is often a difficult question. You donât want to be too early, you donât want to be too late.
If you are a fundamental investor, then you need to monitor the story from time to time and keep a track of growth. Once growth stops, or slows down in comparision to price valuation, an exit should be contemplated. This is easier said than done. But one can keep track of things by monitoring quarterly numbers, concalls (if they are being done), scuttlebutt etc.
For guys following technicals, I think till now the simplest method I have seen is to follow the 30 week moving average and sell on a conclusive breach of the moving average. Usually a stock during its upmove may test the moving average a few times, but as long as the trend of the moving average is up, one can hold on. Or else look out for signs of any weakness in stock price or some specific bearish pattern, say on candlesticks, or some visible patterns like head and shoulders breakdown, or double top breakdown etc.
There is yet another class of investors who are fond of making their holdings free and keep riding them. I am not in that class of investors.
I donât track who manufactures these drugs that are in shortage in US markets. But if you want to play this game, there are some questions you will face, and whose answers you will have to figure out.
First is who manufactures these products.
Second is how long these shortages are going to lastâŚ
Third is how much difference does this product make to overall revenue ?
Usually markets price these anomalies very quickly, so unless you have an edge and you are nimble, itâs tough to play this game.
Hello @hitesh2710 ji, this is my first question but I am following your writing for a long.
NHPC has broken high and back ⌠is the technical view intact on chart unable to find an answer by myself looking into the charts. Your input will be really helpful.
Granules could be one of beneficiary as they recently got the ANDA approval for this specific API in Dec 21. But someone should check with mgmt in upcoming call on 20th wrt sales and other relevant numbers.
NHPC has been a steady performer in this current weak market phase. As shown in the attached weekly GMMA chart, its important resistance was the band of 32-33 ( on bar chart it crucial breakout level was 34.50 and a previous less important peak in 2010 was 36.60) ⌠So for practical purposes, we consider levels of 33-34 as important breakout levels. And stock price has managed to stay above that level most of the times recently and has had an ocassional shot at a new swing high of above 40.
Stocks like NHPC currently are showing relative outperformance ( or resilience, by not going down along with market weakness). as compared to nifty. My guess is once the market stabilises, and some kind of triggers are unlelashed for NHPC, or there is some fancy for renewable energy of any form, NHPC can make a move. Till that its waiting time. A solid dividend yield is also helping in terms of downside protection. Target of attached pattern is around 45.
Whenver stocks break out of strong resistances, they either run up straight away, or most of the times, tend to hover in and around the previous resistances, sometimes going slightly below the crucial levels also, as a sort of shakeout move, to shake out weaker hands, and then make the big move. In real time its difficult to make out which stocks are going to do what.
If you track HBL power, its previous major top was at 76-77. When stock price cleared that level, it went up to 105, and then again retraced to retest levels of 74-75, and then gave another rally to 104, and again retested 74-75 and then on third attempt at levels of 100 plus managed to conclusively break above that and since then has been showing good strength and resilience.
Based on my experience of stocks clearing all time highs, my expectations in terms of targets are usually 30%, 50% and 100% percent upsides (and subsequently multibagger in some stocks) from previous tops⌠(there is no science attached to it, just mere observations after seeing lots of such breakouts. )
@hitesh2710ji You had initiated a thread on Andhra Petrochemical many years ago, do you hold a view on this stock given the collapse in price over the last year?
