@kumars1672
We currently are in a very fragile macro environment with a lot of geopolitical risks ( by itself these may not touch us as we seem to be far away from Ukraine and Russia both, but indirectly it affects global supply chains and events like crude price surge can throw a lot of calculations for a toss.), raw material price supply and price issues, inflation issues etc.
That inflation was going to rise was a given because in response to Covid, most of the govts resorted to mass scale printing of currencies to tide over the expenses in dealing with the crisis. Purchasing power of the underlying currency therefore had to go down.
Regarding tailwinds, you need to notice the quarterly results of companies coming out with results and commentaries coming out of companies. That should give an idea about where there are tailwinds. Hotels have strong sectoral tailwinds, but how long they last needs to be seen. I see good times for these hotels atleast for a couple of quarters. Maybe beyond too, but I would like to take things as they come in these kind of cyclical companies.
About sugar sector, I think it has become a chewing gum which has been chewed completely and everyone and their mother got into it in past few months. I think the easy money in sugar has been made. Some of the stocks in the sector have gone up multiple times post breakouts and one cannot expect these to keep going up.
I recall an interesting anecdote Howard Marks narrated in his talk in Mumbai which I and a few other VP guys were lucky enough to attend. He said that one day his son came to him all worked up and excited and told him to buy a car company whose latest model was selling like hotcakes. So Howard asked him how he knew? His son told him he read in newspapers. So Howard asked the question, “Who doesn’t know about this?” The key message from this anecdote is once the news is out in public domain, (these days it does not even need to make newspapers, Whatsapp and other social media platform are much faster in spreading news/rumours) most of the news is priced in. I think similar is the status of ethanol story. Everyone and their mother knows about ethanol and trying to bet on it at this late stage may not lead you to multibaggers.
@hitusohi1 Powergrid chart looks strong but seems a bit stretched. With the kind of correction we are seeing in the markets, we need to look out for stocks which report good numbers and have good future propsects and still have not made major moves due to market uncertainty. Typically these stocks will go into a consolidation range with very low volumes and not crash too much along with markets, or if they correct on any given day, they will again attain resilience in a few days.
@Sumit_Das You can start a portfolio thread of your own citing your reasons for buying individual stocks. And the reasons have to be more elaborate than them belonging to tata group. Another thing to see is that if you plan to hold something for 3-5 years, the business should not be a cyclical business. I see tata steel, tata motors, vedanta which are clear cut cyclical businesses.
