Hitesh portfolio

Getting 20 % CAGR through Mutual funds is awesome. You are doing fantastic. Aiming for 30 % CAGR through direct stock investing is too much to ask for. Its very difficult to get such a high CAGR, that too consistently. No mutual Fund Manager, no PMS /AIF has given 30 % CAGR over long run. Even Warren Buffet CAGR is around 20 %… I will not advise you anything…Just putting facts for your consideration…

9 Likes

Hi @hitesh2710 Sir

Please let me know your views on Thyrocare

I have noticed below triggers for thyrocare

  1. Mgmt started discussing with 900 + hospitals for B2B deals thru their subsidiary

  2. Mgmt planning announce lab results with in 24 hrs that too online

  3. Mgmt have plan to add additional regional labs to decrease the time line for reports and to add more tests at local level instead of central labs

  4. With pharmeasy on board, they started booking lab test in pharmaeasy counters … As a pilot they have done for 200+ pharmaeasy associated drug stores. as of now

  5. I felt no pricing power due to B2B nature… lot of other players also in same business…they are also equally good like lalpath labs, metropolis, vijaya, krsanaa etc…

  6. Felt crowded supplier’s are available

  7. Noticed lot of damage happened in this carnage…

Do you see any moat on this business sir

Any insights on this sector greatly appreciated

Thanks
Kumar

4 Likes

Hii Hitesh sir,
My question is related to Navin fluorine, it is related to technicals. The stock seems to be in Stage-3 but at the same time it has shown great relative strength in the current market. What should be the approach here?

Also fundamentally lots of capex goes live in next few quarters and revenue can potentially double in 2 years

1 Like

@axiskumar

There are times in the market when narratives rule and other times when numbers rule. And at some point of time, narratives have to lead to numbers. If I look at thyrocare numbers for last two quarters, they both have shown y on y de growth both on topline and bottomline numbers. With the kind of mood the market is in, these kind of lacklustre numbers will not go unpunished. And that’s the problem with Thyrocare stock price. With two consecutive quarters of poor numbers, and a weak overall market, the structure of the stock price has gone very weak.

And regarding the Pharmeasy and other similar kind of businesses, I am not too comfortable with the kind of business models these companies have. As long as there was venture capital money to burn, it was all okay for these names, but once they come in listed space, it is the numbers that matter and on that aspect, I would like to see how profits pan out.

I was bullish on the diagnostic space and still continue to monitor dr lal path labs, metropolis etc, but these names have remained in the watchlist only.

5 Likes

@ravigala

Navin fluorine chart shows an interesting repetetion of patterns currently. Similar pattern was seen from Nov 2020 to April 2021 when stock price faced stiff resistance from 2700 levels. Ultimately this level was crossed and stock price went up to around 4200.

Now since Sep 2021 till date, stock price has been facing resistance at 4000-4200 kind of levels. As you said, stock price is showing good resilience in the current market turmoil. I think one should watch out for support between 3500-3600 and resistance between 400-4200 and position accordingly.

Compare the similar price patterns even on the chart you posted, and you will notice the similarities. Very interesting chart.

5 Likes

Given the confirmed nature of contracts and much bigger capex plans vs the past. Can we say that visibility is leading to this holding up.

They’re getting aggressive in new age verticals and setting up an R&D plant. In agchem alone 2 customers can contribute to $100m of business each. Given high Valuations but extremely strong visibility. How will you think about this using both techno and a funda perspective?

Disc:- Invested. Seen these cycles of resistance and funda triggers play out over and over again in this one.

6 Likes

@Worldlywiseinvestors

Navin fluorine has been a well recognised company by market participants and these kind of companies with good managements are given a long rope by the markets. If we look at the balance sheet (screener at a first glance) it has fixed assets of 556 crores and capital work in progress of 742. That gives some idea about the kind of assets they are putting up. And once these come into commercialisation, there can be another leg of growth.

The current range bound moves in the Navin fluoro stock is a sort of time correction where stock price is waiting for earnings to catch up. Once the results of capex start coming in, stock price could start moving up again. But this could take a few weeks/months till results are visible. High valuations will sustain till the earnings deliver or till markets are convinced about the promise of higher earnings. (perception of higher earnings. ) If inspite of a couple of quarters of waiting and bullish comments from management, earnings do not materialise, even these kind of stocks will correct.

Markets in the past have granted similar sort of latitude to PI Inds where price remained range bound, waiting for earnings to catch up. And the company rarely disappointed.

16 Likes