hey hitesh ji how you see aavas and cams (current valuations) i bought them in my dads pf on higher levels ( should i cut the loosers). should i look for iifl finance instead of aavas as that looks cheap to me. and make some way for some financials on place of cams ? what do you suggest . loved your thread 
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Fertiliser as a sector has never enjoyed high valuations till now. But in case of Chambal I remember listening to a concall few quarters back when the management was quite gung ho on the non fertiliser sector growth for the company, and they talked about big things happening in the segment for the company. So if something of that nature does play out, then there can be some serious re rating. Otherwise, most of these fertiliser companies have limited pricing power and is a politically sensitive commodity and also suffers from subsidy politics.
@Bhavya_Vyas I dont track either CAMS or aavas.
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Hi sir
What you say about UPL
Hello sir I have been looking at charts and results of construction / infra / capital goods players. Most of stocks looks to have started a uptrend. Results for last 1/2 quarters have also been encouraging.
What has been your view about the sector .
Which stocks do you feel can play well with goverment spending / capex theme.
@hitesh2710 sir, how do calculate the volume spike. Is it on some screener or just visually. Usually do you wait for twice the volume?
Given that poly film prices have gone up in the last 2 days, would it be logical to add more to my stakes in Polyplex assuming the trend will last?
Disc: Invested in Polyplex since a couple of months.
Where can u track poly prices . And how about input costs ?
Hello sir,
I wanted to know your views about GMDC Technically & Why we have not seen the impact of lignite price Over NLC India, as we are witnessing in GMDC. NLC operating in multiple sector,but their should be some positive impact over books.
As you mention, construction/infra/cap goods as sectors are showing better relative strength in the markets as compared to other sectors. (As of now metals being strongest).
Few ways to play the theme is to focus on pure play infra companies involved in construction/EPC/ some other infra activity. i.e contractor type companies. Other way is to go through ancillaries by focussing on companies making equipment for infrastructures. i.e players which are involved in making cranes, dumpers, other construction vehicles etc. We decided to play it through Usha Martin which makes products for infrastructure, mining etc. In similar space there can be other players like apl apollo etc which make products for infra space. Some people will come up with the logic that steel and cement and such other stuff is also part of infrastructure stuff and hence should be considered in that sector. 
But there the business dynamics are slightly different and one has to be congnisant of that.
@ganesh_bastwadkar I dont track UPL.
@sta Usually volume spike means volumes twice that of the previous 10 days average volumes. (I have heard some guys mention it and hence putting it here. Usually volume spike is much more than the figure I mentioned). Even a casual glance at screener charts will give some idea about it.
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@jagdishwadhwa Polyfilm prices are quite volatile and we should not be guided by their moves over 2-3 days. The idea should be to figure out the trend and then take a position. The other aspect is to look at spreads. i.e delta between raw material prices and finished prices. Regarding whether you should add to your position in polyplex based on these things, I am not an advisor on those things. You can consider all aspects related to the business and take an appropriate call
@varun_kejriwal I track polyfilm prices and spreads through a friend who tracks them closely and who is an expert in the space. I think there might be websites or other ways to check these things but I have not needed to go in that direction till now.
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GMDC has been on a tearaway rally ever since it cleared its major resistance of 83 which was its 2 year high. Now above 180-82 it has crossed its multi year ( 9 year high) high. However this rally has been very sharp from levels of around 65 in Dec 21 to current high of 190, nearly 2.5 times in a span of 3 months. So I think there is a high chance of a pause at current level or slightly higher from current level and maybe sideways consolidation or mild correction.
Usually what happens when stocks cross multiyear highs is that the breakout levels are retested and a strong base is established at those levels before stocks take off for next upmove. So rather than getting carried away by the momentum, it makes sense to wait and watch for a proper entry point after consolidations or tightenings.
Regarding NLC, its main product profile is similar to GMDC. Coal and lignite. Both are commodities that are in strong demand and enjoy strong pricing environmnt. Technically it seems to have taken support exactly at its 200 dema around 61.50 and given a good bounce yesterday in an overall weak market. I expect real strong momentum to come if and when stock price crosses and stays above 78-80.
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Hi @hitesh2710 ji , what’s your view on diagnostic sector from a med term perspective 2-3 -yrs, hammered out in last six months to a saner shape now on valuations, there are some good reviews on PPP player Krsnaa Diagnostics with disruptive pricing , available at less than 9X EBDITA FY 23 and mgmt is guiding 2X revenue & 3X profits in 3 years, while charts haven’t indicated bottom out yet, players like lalpath are starting to see mkt purchase from senior positions insiders. Do you also have any opinions on PPP players engaging in un ethical ways to win biz and can these be a good investment- short/long at low valuations - your views?
If you were to take positions in beaten sectors (e.g Diagnostics is down for now but Hospitals are now seeing good traction - both can’t have Divergence for long being adjecncies), how do u generally go about building given sector is out of favor now and may take some time to get its mojo back( if it does), thanks.
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I’ve been carrying the impression that NLC is a derivative play on lignite than a direct play. GMDC is a direct play and hence the benefits of coal/ lignite/ overall fuel price inflation flow in a straightforward manner to GMDC. GMDC’s main business is selling lignite, and then side business is selling other minerals and selling power.
NLC’s main business, on the other hand, seems to be power. Lignite is the side business. Even though NLC mines more lignite than GMDC, it uses a majority of the lignite up for its own captive power plants. Yes, NLC’s power business gets an indirect benefit due to the backward integration for a commodity whose price is in the stratosphere. But it is an indirect link. There may be delays (e.g. inventory held at its captive power plant) or other factors (e.g. some negative factors for power business like receivables turning late/ bad) may work in the other direction to dilute the backward integration advantage.
GMDC’s core business is selling lignite. Also, no inventory effect to play out. It pretty much sells every ton it mines, like clockwork, quarter after quarter. The current management also seems dynamic (I heard IAS officer Mr. Roopwant Singh). Also, you will find analyst reports talking about GMDC taking rapid price hikes (every couple of weeks), rather than take slow hikes like it used to before. So now it doesn’t miss out on the near vertical price rise.
I guess the market is just reflecting this difference between the two companies. It is possible NLC will start picking up with a lag, possibly with the market just looking at the name lignite within Neyveli Lignite Corporation and getting excited.
Disclosure: Invested in GMDC from low levels, hence bias may inadvertently creep in
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Hi Hitesh,
I am invested in GPIL from pre bonus share times. The current commodity prices appear to be just not slowing down. The pellet prices took very good support around ~10500/t and it has never looked back. I plan on holding onto it since due to low valuations compared to peers + captive mines + great realizations. Captive mines appear to be giving great realizations.
I would like to own such a mine for long term 
if I had the money. But I cannot. Hence…
Can I consider owning GPIL to be a proxy for owning mines? And hence look at it a long term investment (>10 years)?
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@hitesh2710 ji, are you tracking Wires & Cables space, proxy to infra and housing space ? There are multiple tailwinds in building materials sector like real estate revival, various govt initiatives, industry consolidation etc.
Do you reckon out of plywood, paints, sanitaryware, W&C and plastic pipes, wires & cables and pipes have a long growth runway and set to grow the fastest in building materials space ? Also, considering valuations, do you think W&C look most attractive ?
Another query if I may, I started tracking astral lately and was really impressed at how management created a market for cpvc pipes, gradually entered into new adjacencies and captured market share. Do you think such management with good capital allocation skills are rare and one can expect them to deliver 12-15 % returns despite nosebleed valuations ?
Many thanks
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Hi Hitesh Bhai,
Thanks for sharing the knowledge.
I like to get your view on two approaches and related pros and cons. (1) Momentum - basket based approach (20-30 stocks) - data driven & quant (2) Technofunda based approach - filter based on fundamental and target based on chart pattern
Momentum Investment has many shades based on Stock Universe, Weekly/Monthly/Quarterly Trend & Risk Management (More Science & less Art). In my view, pros are diversification, broad framing (not looking specifically at individual stock) & minimize the biases; cons are drawdown and less profit in sideine markets.
Techno Funda - In my view, pros are stoploss/drawdown is less comparatively & many artside of investment (pyramid based increasing allocation/staggering stop loss based on individual case by case); Cons are narrow framing (focusing on individual stock & tracking) & pretty much human biases will be built-in.
Could you please help me to get a better opinion between them?
If housing and infra are to do well as sectors all the ancillaries will also do well. But a lot of these stocks seem to be fairly priced leaving little upsides unless there are some positive surprises.
Tiles and sanitaryware companies will have temporary headwinds of high gas and energy charges. How they are able to pass on these costs to customers needs to be seen.
Wires and cables also suffer from strong raw material price headwinds. Copper, aluminium etc prices have shot up a lot and how they impact these companies needs to be seen.
Astral as a company is great and has been a great wealth creator. I do not track it too closely so no idea about valuations.
@parkhi_nazar Thanks for the update on NLC.
@kenshin I dont track GPIL, so not much idea about it.
@dinngap The issue of usha martin promoter pledging has been covered earlier.
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I like the diagnostics space as a sector though I have not done much work on the same. Mainly because the valuations of these companies seemed to be over the top. Now after correction in prices it may make sense to look at them.
Can you elaborate on the PPP term? Is it public private partnership? Or something else ?
About taking bets sectorally, it makes sense to look at the sector in momentum and bet there rather than waste time in sector that is undergoing correction. We do not know when the correction is going to get over so its better to wait and let the sector in question finish its correction and then look at it.
I had a look at krshna chart and its taken quite a pounding and as you say no signs of reversal as yet.
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I think you have clearly ennumerated the differences between quants and techno funda approaches. Personally I am more of a arts and flair guy and am not too comfortable following systems and algorithms. But there are studies which show quants to have done quite well, so there may be a case for that too. I guess its for those folks who do not want to be too bothered about doing any research and still want to invest on their own. For them buying what the system generates, or any advisory recommendations that is based on systems makes sense.
For techno funda guys there are various ways to pick stocks. Techno funda can begin with technicals and proceed to fundamentals or vice versa. But those investing in these kind of stocks have to keep monitoring their investments from time to time.
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