Hello Hitesh sir. Do you have any views on MAS Financial Services?
Thanks for pointing it @aditya14920251
I am already going through thread but it seems no once is recently tracking as its not recently updated
@hitesh2710 sir, Thank you so much for your insightful views. I am new to the forum - could you please help me by pointing to your latest portfolio for me to learn from?
Hello Hitesh ji!
It is a pleasure for all VP members to have you and thanks for sharing the tremendous knowledge with all the members.
If you can please help me guide for any views you have on the below stocks (or any similar co.) or if you are tracking or if you have in your portfolio -
- Gulshan Polyols
- Sukhjit Starch
- Tiger Logistics
- SMC Global Securities
- Share india
Vimta Labs has come out with good q3 fy 22 results. Sales improved from 59 cr in q3 fy 21 to 67 cr in q3 fy 22. Net profit went up nearly 50% from 8 crores to 11.6 crores.
9M FY 22 sales up to 205 crores vs 150 crores for 9M FY 21. Net profit up to 29 crores in 9M FY 22 from 14 crores in 9M FY 21. 9M EPS at 13 per share. (not annualised).
Management guidance is for revenue to reach 550 crores by FY 25. (as mentioned in last two concalls. Need to watch management commentary in concall for current quarter. )
@YK_Bu I dont track any of the stocks mentioned by you.
@Prasad_BSRK I dont discuss my portfolio here since a long time because of personal reasons. But wherever I have positions, I put in disclosures.
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Dear Hiteshji,
Thank you for your regular views on different stocks and lot if education on techno funda approach. Much appreciated for those views.
I would like to know your current view on Bhageria Industries. In oct 21, you posted your views on ut here.
Since then, the promoter holding went up from 70.91 to 71.29%. A small 0.06% FPI investment also is newly there. However, the stock price retraced back to 240 levels by about 25% and still above ATH of ~230ish crossed earlier, and now close to 200 DMA .
How do you view this technically and are you still holding on to your position?
Hello hitesh ji,
What are your views on devyaani and sapphire foods?
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Bhageria Inds stock price cleared its previous all time high of 226 posted in 2016 in June 2021 and went on to hit a fresh high of 329 before it started correcting. Currently its around 234. Usually according to change of polarity principle, a previous major resistance (resistance region as its not possible to put an exact number due to market vagaries) tends to become a support during subsequent declines. Now onwards we need to see whether the stock price gets supported near about the region of 226 plus or minus a few rupees. 200 dema stands at 238. Personally I had kept a stop loss of around 10% from my buy price and was promptly stopped out during its decline. Now will keep a watch for any strong base formation and bullish breakout.
Fundamentally we need to see if margins recover after strong dip in past couple of quarters. Topline growth has been healthy in q2 fy 22. It remains in my watchlist.
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Devyani intl is operator of franchises of KFC, Pizza Hut, Costa Coffee, Its current market cap is in vicinity of 20000 crores. While many or all of these franchises will show strong multiyear growth, I cannot get myself to pay exhorbitant valuations being accorded to these names. Technically it has formed a double top type of pattern which gets confirmed on break below 160. I would watch out for the same. If the double top gets confirmed things can get ugly.
Similar kind of logic applies to Sapphire foods.
If one sees the IPOs that hit the market in last 12-18 months, a lot of them carried a lot of froth in the IPO pricing itself and to add fuel to the fire, these stock prices went up after market listing on mad frenzy by investors and fund managers who had tasted blood riding these IPOs. Many a times its easy to take these stock price to unprecedented levels as none of the retail guys have substantial allocations in IPO and they are easy suckers to buy these listings, lured by the magnitude of stock price rise. A lot of fancy stories are floated around in media, TV and on social media about the so called quality of the business and fancy projections are made to eternity to justify these valuations. I think something of the sort was floating around citing Pay TM valuations for the year 2043. (or was it something else?, I cannot remember.)
In IPOs conventional wisdom is to look at IPOs coming out during bear markets because that’s where they will be priced fairly and there could be some juice left for guys buying post IPO … One thing that’s stuck in my mind since a long time is the full sentence that the acronym IPO stands for. IPO means Its probably overpriced. 
So I usually avoid IPOs and post listing buying unless I am very certain of the business and I understand a lot about the business.
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We currently are in the midst of one of the more severe market meltdowns seen in recent weeks/months. The current fall is more drastic that the earlier fall from Oct-Dec 2021.
Just to put things into context, Index fell from 18600 on 19 Oct 2021 to 16410 on 20 dec 2021, a fall of nearly 2200 points in 43 trading sessions. On an average that’s nearly 50 points fall per trading session. Whereas the index fell from 18350 on 17 Jan 2022 to 17000 today, 24th Jan 2022 in a matter of only 5 trading sessions. On an average that’s a fall of nearly 270 points per trading session. This is just to point out the severity of the most recent carnage. Most portfolios have suffered heavily in last 5 days.
I had this view regarding 2022 going ahead that making money from the markets is not going to be as easy as it was in the past 12-18 months. And is usually the case with me, did not raise enough cash in my portfolio.
Many reasons have been cited by a lot of know all guys on various platforms which include FII selling, possible Russia Ukraine war, fear of LTCG being increased in budget (this is a new one and doing the rounds only since today. 
Earlier stories doing the rounds were total abolition of income tax to be replaced by some fancy tax, or total abolition of LTCG tax etc. These kind of stories circulate or are circulated to suit market moods ) Frankly speaking, hardly anyone has clear cut clue as to why markets rise and fall. But it provides a talking point for a lot of I KNOW ALL kind of guys on various social media platforms or commentators on TV etc.
One comforting factor related to recent carnage is that these kind of sharp falls usually act as a purge or catharsis in a bull market and tends to remove all kinds of excesses and provides decent opportunities for the discerning investors. These are often times to rejig the portfolio and get into companies that have strong earnings report cards, or strong earnings visibility or preferably a combination of both.
For those sitting on cash, its usually a god sent opportunity to deploy capital into good companies. But for those fully invested, its often a difficult choice about what to do. The prudent course of course is to try and see if any course correction can be done in the portfolio and take appropriate action even if it involves booking losses in a position to get into another more attractive option. If there is one thing that drives and protects stock prices over the medium to longer term, its earnings and promise of future earnings. In shorter term, everything is hit hard. And that often is the opportunity that needs to be grabbed.
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Hitesh bhai
Any thoughts on IndiaMart… for long term
HItesh Bhai - Thank you for being here day in day out, showering with nuggets of wisdom. Wish you are blessed with all the energy to keep up the good work. Warm Regards.
Sir, are you still riding in the same boat, a long term boat, or did you change vessels, moved to high conviction medium term bets combined with the power of fundamental and technical, along with the experience you have gained?
Have you migrated to a more sure shot medium term bets, which more or less are giving the same returns as your initial long term bets did? Or you still have a coffee can sort of portfolio, where you still add some or left it untouched?
Not that one should or could emulate you, but my question is that, with the advent of new technologies, the rapid changes the world, and associated businesses, markets are going through, does the percentage of businesses being impacted by technology is increasing, and there are only a handful of businesses that will not be impacted, so despite the fact that long term investing exists, but one should think of medium term too, in the sense that, one should cultivate the process of looking at investing from a pure short term, medium perspective too, not by choice but by necessity. Or this is a natural evolutionary process, one that happens with time, when one has gained sufficient experience, one can predict to some extent, so takes medium term bets.
I for one has started looking at equity from different lenses and as you are experienced in this matter too, obviously, I am asking this question from a retail investor’s perspective.
Apologies if this is lengthy.
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Ever since the rally post March 2020, I have adapted to momentum investing which involves investing in fundamentally strong companies with good chart structures. Till now it has paid handsome dividends.
I do not have the mindset of a coffee can investor. So for me, short to medium term trading in most of my portfolio is the style I have adopted. There are the ocassional couple of stocks which I want to hold for slightly longer term. Going ahead, idea is to find out companies which I can ride for 2-3 years, but for that I would have to be absolutely sure about the predictability of growth. As of now this notion is a work in progress. The good thing is that markets have become shaky and now a lot of froth from even the good names is getting out of the prices, so there should be good opportunities during the next few months of getting into good names with structural growth prospects.
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Can please share some structural growth stories that can be held for 2-3 years.
I too had similar thought sir. Lux ind was in my watchlist. Industry space is good but todays news tainted its image
Hi Hithesh Bhai,
Just wanted to know what are your views on Financial sector and anything in particular on SBI cards. The sector seems to be completely out of flavour now. Also any views on Kirloskar ferrous, which has come out with good results in last 2 quarters
Year 2043 was for Nykka IPO valuation
Hiteshji
Hope all is good at your end, wanted to get your thoughts on below…sorry for long and hypothetical question but would really be great if you can mention whetver thoughts you have on it 
-
What are your thoughts on FMCG as an industry over long and very long term…I am talking abut only pure FMCG firms and also only about the business and not valuations (for now)…
Why this question - Unilever, P&G, Colgate, even Hersheys have history or centuries of growth & sustainability…but that was the world earlier…
In today’s retail/ecommerce environment…do you see private labels of retailers and platforms, new D2C brands etc. gradually eating up traditional FMCG companies growth and killing them slowly?
With digital and ecommerce, do you see gradually the distribution strength that most traditional FMCG firms boast of will have little meaning ahead (I am talking very long term…I understand its difficult to predict the course and hence just wanted to know your hypothetical views)
RIL - a gem in entering businesses of high growth and long long runway chose to stay away from pure play FMCG - they chose Retail & Technology (Telecom)…ITC chose FMCG (as natural choice even by global tobacco brands), Tata’s are having renewed focus and rigor in their FMCG ventures (at least they have and will have the digital ecosystem to support their FMCG ventures)…
RIL leaving FMCG out of equation could have many reasons which we can never think of (lower growth, longer gestation, lesser right to win, entering it by means of their own Private labels after developing Retail & onine platform ecosystems and what not)…but could it be the vision to see the pure traditional FMCG firms dying a slow death over next few decades?
The likes of Unilever, P&G etc had century of growth intact, they have weathered every storm…can they (and along with them our homegrown FMCG firms like Tata consumer, Marico, Dabur etc) face the new world out here…??
I understand above is all very very hypothetical & ultra long term thoughts I am seeking from you…maybe 50 years ahead or so…but we keep hearing stories of people who have held HUL since generations and were lucky doing so…would it be scary and terrible idea in this new world to do same for the new slightly smaller FMCG firms like Tata consumer, Marico, Dabur or even an HUL or Nestle India?
Valuations threat may only reduce returns but the new threat of digital can kill all century old moats and eliminate growth all together…your thoughts welcome!
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As of now I am not too keen on financials barring a few top private banks like ICICI bk, Axis bank etc. I don’t track SBI Cards. A lot of the smaller private banks are also on the mend post all their problems and seem to be getting out of the woods. Even PSU Banks like SBI and BOB seem to have good chart structures. But if we want the biggest bang for the buck, we need to see where moves are going to be fast and of a higher intensity. That’s where sectors like cap goods, power, textiles, real estate , etc take precedence. So as of now select financials remain on my watchlist but do not find a place in the portfolio.
Kirloskar ferrous is a company I have been watching. There seems to be a management effort to reduce the cyclicality of the business by making an effort to increase revenues from segments other than pig iron. The latest acquisition of ISMT seems to be an effort in that direction. Topline growth has been good since past two quarters but margin improvement still is taking time. Plus the integration of ISMT also will bring its own set of teething problems. But once a lot of these problems are sorted, Kirloskar Ferrous can be an interesting company to look at.
@Aluwalia You can look at good companies and sector leaders in the sectors I mentioned in this post where I remain bullish. For me this exercise still remains a work in progress so I am not able to share any details.
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