anand M
If you have already sold out of the two stocks mentioned then wait some more time before an entry. If you miss one opportunity, there will be plenty of others in this kind of markets.
Hitesh Sir,
Any views on Amara Raja…BOA ML has given a price target of 210 citing capacity constraints
Amar Raja did seem overvalued above 300 when eps estimates for fy 13 were around 18 per share. I think fair value should be somewhere between what these people say and cmp so I guess someone with a long term view can start buying around 230-240.
Personally I also prefer exide inds at this juncture as I see exide getting over their problems in the next quarter or two.
Since the whole auto sector is in the dumps, it will also have a rub off effect on the ancillary players in the auto space which includes exide and arbl.
Technically arbl seems to be forming a head and shoulders pattern as shown in attached. Comments posted on charts. Whether the pattern plays out or not is anybody’s guess but I see similar patterns in sbi and bob.
Hitesh, its a very tricky situation, there are about 5-6 stocks where I really see lot of value and would like to buy (unfortunately, I have no cash, literally, I am fully invested, but could make some from loan) Unichem, MCX, L&T Finance, Orient Bell, Thangamayil. How do you make decesion in this kind of situations? Do you see from long term perspective? or short term? (Just to make question more clear, I would like to buy Unichem from next 2-3 years perspective, however, I think MCX might bounce back fast, imagine if I have to buy one of these two)
mahesh c,
It all depends upon your view and risk profile. If your view is short term and risk profile is high, it makes sense for MCX and if not then unichem.
Thank you Hitesh!
Hitesh,
Do you still have Techno Electric in your portfolio ? It has been beaten up significantly over the past few weeks. Looks quite attractive at the current price (around Rs.130).
Please let me know your views regarding this company. What could be a positive trigger for this company in the next 1-2 years ? Is it worth entering it now or do you see further downside?
Thanks,
Raj.
raj nair,
the punishment given to techno electric has surprised me. Stock has been beaten down to 130 odd levels whereas according to a link posted in the thread on techno electric, things should start looking up.
I think valuation wise it seems to be getting more and more attractive.
About my having it, yes I have been stuck with this one, having bought it at around 185 levels. Would like to review the investment post march results are out.
Bought some stocks today after a long time – kaveri seeds, kajaria ceramics, symphony and vst tillers mainly based on valuations. The business prospects of most stocks have been discussed on valuepickr so no need to repeat investment logic here.
VST Tillers at cmp of around 340 seems to me to offer a good risk reward ratio. market cap is around 300 crores while bangalore land bank alone might be valued at close to 250-300 crores. Although land bank valuation should not be an investment argument. Company has been clocking around 40 crores plus net profits since last four years. ttm net profit also is at 48 crores which provides a PE of 6.25. Once it puts up a string of good quarterly results it tends to go up to 10 PE which should provide good upside if and when that happens. After a poor september quarter, the dec qtr was quite encouraging though not outstanding. Will have to watch out for march qtr results which might be out in may end.( vst tillers usually declares its results quite late)
Lets see how thing go from here.
I feel there could be a bounce in small and midcaps after the initial bump up in index which started from below 5500 nifty levels.
Hi,
Co-incidently we also bought some VST Tillers over last 2-3 days. Looks very interesting at these levels. Also have a look at Thinksoft - looks pretty undervalued at these prices.
Ayush
Hitesh…Just want to know your mind
playing contrarian, would it be right to put a part of portfolio to stocks like Guj Reclaim / Balakrisna intrinsic valuation / management bandwidth wiseif these go down by another 10 - 15 % from here ( taking Vivek Patil’s view of bear phase till march '14 ) and wait for uptick in commodity cycle for a 3+ bagger in say another 3 years timeframe
know this is not your style.
vimal,
When you get good growth stocks at reasonable valuations, it does not make too much sense to go after contra investment strategies unless you are on top of the style.
risk of more downsides from your buying prices remain in pursuing a contra strategy in a bearish kind of market.
We had ample chances to pick up stocks like gruh/indusind/yes/unichem/kaveri/arbl and many more stocks at attractive valuations in the current correction.
further corrections might throw up more such opportunities.
Problem with GRP and balkrishna inds is although these are good companies, you need to buy them when demand is on upswing or has turned from down to up. Currently i think demand scenario may be pointing down unless there is some miraculous recovery in the economy. And even when these things happen the growth stocks will still show good upsides.
regards
hitesh.
Hi Hitesh,
Following your advise, I bought in Yes bank and Indusind during recent correction and it paid off well, so firstly thanks for that 
Wanted your view on consumer oriented stocks like Godrej consumer, marico, emami, even ITC, Titan…I feel these kind of stocks can never go out of favor and valuations will remain expensive(unless there is across sector PE contraction or major global slowdown). Moreover,they provide good earnings growth as well. Whats your take on such stocks/sector, steadycompounders? any other stock you like from similar space/sector…
thanks
Hitesh,
Did you look at any of the PSU stocks, specifically Engineers India? A company with zero debt and almost 2000cr cash in books. This is almost a monopoly in oil and petrochemical engineering and consultancy. When the cycle turns around it will have quite a bit of upside.
The PSU stocks are being treated as outcastes…I feel when the sentiment may get better, many will be multibaggers. Your view please…
Regards,
Raj
@anil – consumer stocks – most of them will provide steady though not spectacular returns. (Looking at the way the womenfolk are thronging the jewellery stocks these days, titan and other jewellery stocks should have a bumper june qtr. ) Most of these stocks are at peak valuations in terms of PE accorded to them. So returns will be consistent with growth they show.
@raj — PSU stocks will always have a tag of being run by govt. I think the best bets among these could be PSU banks with relatively lesser burden of NPAs. Engineers India looks good based on valuation and balance sheet strength but it will need for the cycle to turn for it to provide decent returns. Till that time how low it goes is anybody’s guess.
once again excellent clarity as usual…thanks
hitesh bhai
Pharma stocks being your pet domain, any thoughts on Granules (cmp 100) and Caplin point (cmp 60). Also regarding Unichem, can you share your thoughts on the trigger. It seems to be trading in a range of 168-180 in the recent past.
I dont have much by way of views on granules or caplin presently.
Unichem is a stock that should be looked at in the context of next 1-1.5 years where if they show consistent growth, then a company with its kind of balance sheet can be a good rerating candidate…
Triggers are already mentioned in the unichem thread so no need to repeat them here.
Thanks Hitesh for your views. Though I agree that a PSU tag will not help in better valuation at this moment. However, when the investment cycle(petrochem in particular) turns around companies like EIL should bounce back. Probably that time is a little far.
hitesh bhai,
I am seeking your advice on aurobindo pharma . it constitutes 75 % of my portfolio.I am holding from 204 level, have seen 130 level in last 2months and now it is near 190.
Company has been doing good,its forex loss has reduced , has got us fda approval for one facility which contributes nearly 200 cr to topline and in % basis , is more beneficial to bottomline .Earlier the facility was under ban from us fda.
it has also launched slew of products in export market esp U.S and has highest no of US fda approval for various drugs in this year.
now , i had high conviction on this but just to bring its % down in my portfolio should i book small profit if and when it crosses my price of 204 or should i hold it for long term.
Thanks for your guidance and apology for long query.
Harshit Jain