@hitesh2710 Sir , you are being in medical field you have better understanding the things in pharma space . Most of time your thoughts are the companies which have more Indian market share will grow better than the export oriented pharma or those have mainly export sales . I have witness during COVID LOCKDOWN Private doctors and hospitals has not a lot of rush of patients as precovid time .
Most of the people made visit to civil hospitals and now realizing they have best qualified doctors and now these coupled with JAN AUSHDI Kendras selling low cost medicines . Also as per govt the doctors at civil hospitals must write the salt name not the commercial name of any medicines
I have witness that in medicines section govt are giving free medicines to patients so my opinion is the basic infra is building up in civil hospitals and they are fostering faith in common people .
Donāt you feel that these will speed up and the favorable tide of big domestic pharmas will slow down due to increasing spending by govt irrespective of any pollical party ?
These are the vote banks for republic of India and each political party is going to give support for the medical infra .
Regarding bajaj finance, the real test will come when q1 fy 21 results will be out. And what kind of commentary the management provides. Prices can move up and down based on market sentiments and liquidity, but if I have to have conviction in the company, I have to get a clear mental road map about the companyās NPA and growth prospects.
I try to combine technicals with fundamentals and hence most of the times am not too worried about stop losses. I donāt go by the kind of formulae you have put up about the kind of profit per trade and loss per trade and so on and so forth. I usually donāt try to complicate things too much.
Still if i have to approach the subject of stop loss, it will be the previous swing low.
What we are currently seeing in the field of healthcare has been because of the Covid infection. Trying to extrapolate this into a whole thesis doesnāt carry too much logic for me.
Personally speaking, after a brief lull during lockdown and a few weeks post that, the patient flow to private clinics and hospitals has begun increasing.
One has to be careful about weaving long term stories around short term events. What you say can also happen, and one has to keep that possibility in mind but once all this short term events are out of the way, I find it difficult to believe that a large part of patient flow is going to shift to govt hospitals. It all depends upon the quality of doctors, and infrastructure and support staff. As of now its difficult to imagine the govt facilities matching private facilities.
@rkirana You can go through the thread on caplin point and read about the concerns raised and then take a call. I have give up tracking the company ever since I read that thread.
@A_shah Regarding speciality chem companies and their expansions, you can prepare a list of companies of the sector and put in details about debt, capital work in progress, assets etc and come to a conclusion. Regarding investing in auto sector, your guess is as good as mine. I have no idea about it.
I concur with your analogy on private hospital vs Govt and paid medicine vs free. i live in Hyderabad, 4 in our community fell prey to covid , non of them wanted to go to Govt hospitals. They approached influential and ensured they find bed in one of the corporate hospitals knowing the cost is almost a lac per day. Heard horror stories from people who had to get admitted to govt hospital. Patients missing and 10 days later bodies found in mortuary, wrong body to family , pathetic hygiene leading to secondary infection. untrained, overworked staff showing no empathy to patient needing life support. so i feel as long as one can afford , he/she would not want to go to Govt hospitals.
Hitesh sir, what is your view on suven pharma post the demerger. The company has posted great set of number for march year end and giving a good set of guidance in near future. Compare to peers it is trading at a discount rate.
Since moratorium is now extended till August 2020 and NPA would be known 90 days subsequent to it, the factual position would be known in Q4 of 2020-21 .However a credible management like Bajaj may reveal their assessment in Q1 results. Am I right in saying do, Hiteshji?
This is so much true. Which of all sectors do you think are at the upper end of the bull or lowest end of bear run?
I know no one can predict if they will turnaround and when. But identifying them is one big step.
It is well-advised by investment Gurus that one should focus more on parameters like ROA, ROCE, ROE, cash flow etc. rather than EPS and PE sort of things.
Castrol India, once a blue-chip has excellent ROE, ROCE, ROA and in spite of all this it is not catching the eyes of investors and ruling at moderate price.
How this happens and what are your views on its future ??
All the parameters like roe, roa, cash flows etc without growth, or visibility of growth doesnāt count for much. That has been the case with castrol. Hence the investor apathy.
Would you consider putting all investment through one brokerage a risk? (I am using only Zerodha). Considering what happened in Karvy, would like to know your opinion on this topic.
I know that the stock is actually held in CDSL in my name and have checked it also. But I feel there are many things I donāt know and hence I was wondering
The whole karvy episode has brought out a new set of risks for investors. So its better to stick to solid names for brokerage and demat accounts rather than try to save a penny here and there. Or else, one can have brokerage account for long term with the solid guys and experiment trading part with the cheap alternatives to save costs on brokerage, if there is high frquency trading.
Stock prices are influenced by a variety of factors, but one overwhelming factor present today is the huge increase in the Quantitative Easing purchase program of US Fed, European and Japanese central banks. The high liquidity has lifted all boats across asset classes and different geographies.
If and when the tide reverses, will all asset prices see a secular downturn or are their any ādefensiveā areas?
What would be a safe haven in such a scenario: Govt Bonds - Gold - Real Estate- Stocks?
While it is extremely tough to predict when the liquidity tide will reverse; what would be the signs & triggers to watch out for?
sorry hitesh bhai replying this on your behalf.
from 1st august their will be changes in share trading wich will safe guard investors from risk arised due to karvy fiasco.karvy had shifted shares without investors consent and had used as margin.usually investor dont check actual cdsl and nsdl dp account online in their respective site , so even when shares were trasfered from demate account , if one check his portfoilio it shows that they are in their account.
so from 1st aug no broker can transfer shares without client consent. client will get OTP on mobile and email and when he shares that otp then only it can be transfered.
zerodha i have heard that even started this system in any new account opened for pay in too and have removed POA.
So now after aug shares are safe . only advice to all investor to check shares in actual cdsl/nsdl account.
fund part please check SEBI website i am not sure about exect amount but i think 10 lacs pay out is insured from investor protection fund in case broker defaults
But who are the solid names. I have had bad experience with Motilal Oswal (When I did not know much, they sold wrong things to me for their benefit)
Edelweiss charges 0.5%/transaction as brokerage for people with smaller Portfolios. It is too high imo.
Angel Broking, Sharekhan etc. do not inspire confidence for some reason.
Maybe the brokerages associated with banks are better? HDFC, ICICI etc.? Have never tried thoseā¦
[Sorry for diverting the topic here from stock analysis]
ICICI has the best interface but their charges are high. I used them for investment for about 7 years and then changed to ShareKhan abour 3 years ago and have had no major problem. Brokerage is also very inexpensive.
Sorry about intruding here, but what I have to say has important implications. There is another problem that I am currently facing. My account is with upstox(RKSV Securities). I never gave PoA and was using eDIS facility of upstox for last 18 months. It was working fine. The only restriction was that the daily limit of sell orders was 20 lakhs.
Suddenly the facility has been withdrawn from 01 Jun without prior intimation. I am now unable to sell my shares at all. I canāt go to another broker because physical Delivery Instruction Slips have to be submitted in Bangalore office and I am in Delhi.
I raised the issue with Upstox, CDSL and SEBI. I am told that the new eDIS facility offered by CDSL is only if the underlying Demat account is in single name. In my case the Demat was in joint name.
For first 20 days both CDSL and Upstox refused to even agree that there was a problem. I kept sending them screenshots of error. Total of 50 plus emails. CDSL said problem is with Upstox. Upstox said there is no problem, some temporary glitch may be there, so try again tomorrow, try incognito mode etc.
The markets are roaring, I want to lighten up and I am stuck.
Upstox doesnāt offer Easiest of CDSL, nor does Zerodha. Edelweiss was offering it during Covid with the condition that it will be revoked within 30 days of ending of lockdown.
Moral of the story. At least have one standby account with someone in the same city. Try having Easisest. Currently Finvasia is offering it, but they are also not sure how things will evolve as the pool account has already been put to a stop.
This needs a seperate thread, discussion of macro economics based on fund flow. There are many others other than Hitesh himself, that understand this and would be a good guide for all to learn from including myself.
