hello hitesh sir, in your thread you always recommend OUTSIDER book , in indian context please share some names , imo motherson sumi,pidilte.hope may i wrong , thanks for suggest very good book.
Hello Hitesh Sir,
any thoughts on diagnostics players like dr lal and metropolis ?
Its a pleasure to go through your posts .U hv an uncanny ability to explain even esoteric subjects like TA & even pharma which many investors find difficult to understand in a simple & lucid language benefiting thousands of readers of your post. Kudos.
Whats your view on FDC which came with good set of nos yet again with EPS rising to 14 approx in fy 20 from 9.9 in Fy in fy 19.Both exports n domestic sales seem to be doing well. This inspite of taking 60 odd crore M2M losses in its investment portfolio otherwise eps wud hv reached 17-18.
On checking with my local chemist he told that a MR from FDC visited him for fisrt time in 10 years as FDC has good brands which keeps on selling well on its own but for first time he is seeing the increased visibility.
Seems old gen promoters though technically competent were laid back but some change happening with advent of 3rd gen cousins. Exports seems to be increasing both in US & ROW. land has been bought back on which factory was situated. New team in place for domestic marketing n exports.Some brands like Enteroplus have been brought recently in oct 19 adding to strength of establised Electral n Enerzal brands.
Co promoters are very ethical justifying the old name Fair Deal Corpn . Buybacks keep happening every year instead of siphoning. Any scuttlebutt you have done & updates u have and your views on FDC?
Co has many times deceived in price performance many times in past .Price again went down after seemingly good nos as some instt selling & old holders may be selling out . Maybe new 52 week high may take care of it.
Your TA of exiting financials & entering Pharma & chemical seems to be working out beautifully as small cos in these sectors are coming with good nos…
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HIteshbhai,
Just came across a tweet from Peter Brandt - Author of books on Technical Analysis. He mentioned that " Nifty reaching level of significant resistance (10,000 to 10,600) as previously cited. Daily chart forming corrective rising wedge, likely one more corrective high coming Then decline to 6355
Can you pls throw some light on what is corrective wedge and are we starring at 6355 ( though we cant predict)
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Peter Brandt has been predicting a Nifty level of 6500 for 2 years now! He predicted 6500 in April also. He is now saying it will go to 10500-10600 and then fall to 6500. Given he has been wrong for last 2 years, this will need some huge luck for him to be correct.
We should not trust someone who is consistently wrong for 2 years and refuses to change direction.
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FDC is predominantly a domestic focussed pharma company. I could not find the percentage of exports in FY 20. The domestic facing pharma companies are going to have a rough ride for next quarter and probably even for q2 to some extent.
So although technically it looks good, I have it only in my watchlist. There seems to be good growth in sales and profits since past few quarters and hence something seems to have changed for a previously sleepy company.
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Technically 10500 on the nifty is 61.8% retracement of the entire fall which started in feb-march. The 200 dema is also placed in same vicinity. So that is a place where I would like to be watchful.
Peter Brandt seems to be a guy who believes in predicting as often as he can. The idea is that at some point of time you will get it right and you will have bragging rights.
I saw his predictions back when index used to be around 8000-8500 levels. And since then we have seen huge opportunities for making some quick money.
But rather than follow these twitter and social media gurus, one should develop one’s own logic and draw appropriate conclusions.
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Seems new gen promoters at FDC are making their mark. One of them is a MBA from INSEAD & also went to US for studies on a tennis scholarship he being a tennis champion & trained under Vijay Amritraj.
Exports to USA & ROW seem to be increasing. New professional have also been brought in domestic sector & new MRs have joined. Buybacks keep happening regularly.We need to track FDC >hopefully the growth momentum continues.
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Hi Hitesh Sir,
What are the important things you see in charts?
I am not asking any detailed charting. But in broad sense what all things you see in charts?
Regards,
Saurabh
hi sir,
learning from your each reply is more than reading a book… thanks
one thing i want to ask u do you use TA only to
find mood of market And
to take buying decision for your long term investment
OR
to ride the short term movement in any sector, positional/F&O trade…?
I am asking you bcoz when i saw a chart i could not resist myself to punch a order and sometime in F&O too but result is not encouraging, meanwhile no/less time for reading a company fundamentally too
so plz tell us how effectively we can use TA for long term alpha.
Regards,
Sandeep
1 Like
Dear Hitesh Ji,
Would love to know your view on technicals of glenmark. Although experts say the surge in glenmark isnt justified,
momentum seems to be on its side.
Thanks for your time
In charts I mainly see the broader patterns like cup and handle, inverted head and shoulders, rounding bottom, flag, double/triple bottoms, crossing of 3,6,9,12 month and all time highs etc and then try to correlate with fundamentals.
I am not too much into indicators or other stuff.
@sanu1802 I use technicals for investments only be it short, medium or long term. No f/o trades.
@Bhambri3 I dont track united spirits or breweries.
@sarthakkumar19_ By the time a stock features in newspaper headlines most of the upmove is usually over. Glenmark had formed cup and handle pattern close to its 200 dema at around 350, with pattern targets closer to 500 which seem to have exceeded. I think with yesterday’s move most of the upmove is over and stock probably will go sideways or down.
17 Likes
@hitesh2710 sir, what’s your view on Shivalik Rasayan and Medicamen Biotech? Also, need your views on the quality of management sir.
1 Like
hi @hitesh2710 Have you come across this type of market before? Nothing seems to matter. The US market is even worse ( especially the tech companies. Forget about PE, EV/EBIDTA. Even on a Price to Sales basis it looks absurd). I dont buy the the usual theory that market is forward looking etc for for this situation. This is surely something else. I read that a similar thing happened in 2000. (Both India and US). I was just comparing to 2000 scenario. One big difference is that there was no QE/central bank balance sheet expansion back then. But this time it increased to 7T from 4 trillion in just 2 months. So this disconnect between market and economy may continue. Another thing i noticed is that these days there is huge intra day index swing. So I am wondering if algos are at play. Do this things worry you?.
We know that such things will always come to an end. But my guess is that it could be prolonged this time due to the supply of 3T. So what indicators one should be using in such a scenario?. Could you share your thoughts?
21 Likes
Very important and in the present context, appropriate question. This is a question that continues to vex me also and frankly speaking I don’t have any clear cut answers. I would just put up my thought process and strategy and hope it helps.
I think the initial correction that happened was unprecedented and we have hardly seen any such savage correction in the past 3-4 years. Some say even 2008 falls were not so drastic, though I haven’t checked the data points. What that did was that it caused corrections in some stock prices which was much beyond what was warranted. The pendulum had swung to the extreme end of pessimism and we can easily remember the kind of targets people were talking about and the kind of fear the viral outbreak caused.
But human psychology is wired in such a way that time happens to be a great healer in all things that matter. “This too shall pass” are very powerful four words.
The govt actions across the globe in response to this unprecedented correction also were unheard of. No one expected such massive stimuli across the globe. In the initial phase of these liquidity tsunamis, there was a lot of disbelief whether these would help the markets or not and hence the movements between 7500-9000 where there was a lot of disbelief about market upmoves. But as time went on and the gush of liquidity kept piling up, market mood succumbed to liquidity and we climbed a wall of worry when markets turned back after a higher bottom closer to 8000. Since then there has been no looking back.
I myself also was sitting on the sidelines thinking that this was a bear market rally and would end soon. But when I saw the kind of moves the pharma sector stocks started making, I got confident about investing in the liquid top names of the sector and some names which I have alluded to earlier where I was very confident about very good numbers coming through irrespective of the status of disesase outbreak. So that took care of the fear of missing out.
About where markets can go from here, I myself still remain sceptical about the q1 and q2 results to be posted by most companies which have a predominantly domestic foccused business model. So I have good companies from that sector in my watchlist which I would consider if and when the good companies from these sectors correct in response to poor or lacklsutre q1 and q2 results. Most of these would include high quality compounders that are talked a lot about on all forums and channels.
Till I am sure about where the markets are headed, I prefer to remain in sectors where I have reasonable confidence about the prospects of the businesses irrespective of Covid status. So the term that is commonly used is I remain “cautiously optimistic” and my caution keeps increasing as the markets keep going up. Technically I think 10500 region remains the area to watch out for on signs of exhaustion of rally/reversal. About whether algos play a role in the market movements I don’t have too much idea about it. And I don’t know if its too pertinent to bother about.
@Inimitable_Investor I dont know about the companies you mentioned but there are well populated threads on VP on the companies from where you can get the necessary information.
29 Likes
Dear Sir,
Need to understand your views on Bajaj Finance move almost up to 100 day SMA dramatically. Not totally unexpected, but sharp pull back from the lows. Liquidity and looking 2 years ahead, market seems to have discounted bad news.
Hi Hitesh bhai,
Which spec chemical companies you feel are doing mindful expansion (against orders etc) without burdening the balance sheet with over leverage or which have more secular customers and as a result are more structurally secular (non commodity type) and not much prone to cycles and can sustain the growth rate ? As the mindless expansion often results in high debt and oversupply and then the consequent fall of prices of finished products spells end of the cycle
Do you think its time to invest in auto sector ?
Many thanks
3 Likes
Can you let us know exactly what happened in 2000 as you already did some comparative analysis. I am aware there was Y2K and tech bubble bust, other than that what made markets fall and subsequent rally and how it all ended in India and US? Thanks
@hitesh2710
Sir, you mentioned that you time your entry of your investments using basic TA.
But can you shed light on the way you take money out of the stock when its not working.
WIth basic TA, it has been said that one need to keep Stop Loss in case of pattern failure and prepare to loose only 1% in case pattern fails.
Like if you had 1Lac and you are investing on the basis of pattern. How much you would invest in particular stock and what would be your stop loss?
Ideal Trade
ICL Organic
Entry 23
Stop Loss 20rs
Loss per stock 3rs
Trade allocation for 1 LAC capital: will buy 330 stock, so that if stop loss hit, i will loose 1000rs (1% capital)
If possible, can you mention how will you approach this stock
Thanks