Hitesh portfolio

Hitesh,

Greenply has appreciated from the initiation price. What do you think should be the fair price at which one should think of exiting ?

Regards

I think greenply could do around 44-48 per share EPS for fy 13. applying 10 times PE, one could aim at target price of 440-480 or so.

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Hitesh,

Greenply has appreciated from the initiation price. What do you think should be the fair price at which one should think of exiting ?

Regards

I so.

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Hiteshbai,

Greenply recently had a sharp runup over last few weeks followed by some correction from 420 odd levels to 385/86 current levels… Do u see sharp down-swing in its price movement in coming few days? ? Also what would be the desirable entry point for someone who missed this whole rally earlier??

Regards

Sandip

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sandip,

regarding greenply it is difficult to pinpoint exact entry point after the run up. but one can accumulate gradually over a few days as after the run up stock seems to be consolidating around 385-400 levels.

hitesh.

Hi Hiteshbhai,

Whats your view on Kaveri ? Should I hold onto it? Bought at 960.

Any reasons for completely moving out of kaveri?

Regards,

Prashant

Hello Hitesh,

Maybe you missed it, but would appreciate if you could answer my queries (esp’lly 2nd one abt Unichem) in prevs comment. Thanks.

kamikazi,

regarding atul auto, the exit is almost complete. kept a very small amount just to keep track of things.

regarding unichem you might have read my earlier posts also, I have been very bullish on unichem and remain so.

Regards,Prashant

kaveri I think the gross undervaluation which was there at 800 odd levels is not there anymore. But since the stock price seems strong, you can keep holding on.

Thanks a lot Hitesh!

Hi Hiteshbhai,

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Regards,Prashant

kaveri on.

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@prasad: Yes, Polymedicure seems to be a very good idea even from these levels. I’m noticing some unique things in the co like:

1). The co has been able to expand margins almost every year and are now operating at about 27-28% OPM (if one removes forex losses)

2). The co has excellent cash flows

3). They somewhere shared their vision to be a 500 Cr turnover co by 2016, I think.

Plus despite so many negatives like - huge forex loss, expiry of tax benefits etc the co has been a huge multibagger. And now after winning patent war against B Braun, they would be entering the Safety IV Cannula market (which gives them better margins).

They are also entering the US Markets through a tie up with some US co and this could be a big opportunity for them. They are the only US FDA plant in this area in India.

Ayush

thaks ayush for remarks.

Disposable nature of most of the products of this company makes this a FMCG of pharma.

I have lot of doctor friends and I have seen how badly they treat MR of some midcap pharma companies but I have seen them behaving in good manner with medical equipment companies and they are eager to find out from company representative what is new?Who bought what? This makes me believe that life of equipment companies is better than upcoming pharma.

Infact one of my doctor friend says the day patients start insisting on doctors about a particular medicine brand or a particular company medicine only, that will be time we sell all our stocks and buy pharma.

Hitesh,

I amsurprisedby murudeshwar’s inclusion by someone like you. I understand its atechnicalbuy. But I am not sure what is the trigger here. Other than the take over target, Idon’tsee anythinginterestinghere. I come from a nearby place. Here people are priceconsciousand look to buy the cheapest tiles.

Hitesh paaji,

Have attached the latest results of Gujarat Auto Gears. Can you please go through it and alert me, if there are any red flags.

And below is the extract from Directors speech 2012 about growth prospects

During the coming year focus on export will be primary with regular
 visits to customers for providing better service and also visiting
 various fairs and exhibitions for taping of new customer.
 
 Europe being our single largest market, we expect a little slow down
 from our customers and hopefully would be able to cover any decline in
 European market by enhancing and finding new customers in other market
 specially more focused on North America and Far East Market.

Regards

Mallikarjun

Gujarat_Automotive_Gears_Q3-2012-results.pdf (65.6 KB)

Hi Hitesh

Off late I have been working on various short term themes (6-12months). Can you please explain your trading cum fundamentals strategy. Basically what sort of stocks you bet on here and what sort of stocks you avoid here.

Thanks

t anilkumar

I think for short term six to twelve months based opportunities are mainly those where there is valuation mismatch. Or else turnarounds. Or some great company going through temporary pain for a few quarters which is likely to end in near future.

In both of these situations first thing I avoid is companies with loads of debt.

What to look for is consistent growth or else companies on cusp of explosive growth and preferably with margin improvement.

Hitesh,

I amsurprisedby atechnicalbuy. Idon’tsee anythinginterestinghere. priceconsciousand

basically as mentioned before murudeshwar is a lottery ticket so no rhyme or reason for buying it. but prasad has listed a lot of positives for the company after his research on it.

i seem to remember reading that you fractured your leg. Hope you’ve recovered.

btw I do believe your portfolio disclosure / comments move the markets!

thanks for wishes. three weeks gone today. three more to go before weight bearing allowed on fractured leg.

regarding portfolio/comments moving markets, I dont think so. markets are too big for such small piddly things to matter. maybe in ocassional individual stock with a lot of positives, there might be a slight move but overall i dont think there will be too much impact.

Get well soon Hitesh ji

Get well soon, Hitbhai!