exactly what I have been thinking since past couple of days. greaves cotton definitely needs a look in. But I think valuation wise it is not as cheap as we are accustomed to latch on to stocks at valuepickr.
thanks rudra.
Unichem is the stock which gives me the greatest satisfaction as it seems to be going exactly according to the scrip envisaged.
Updated portfolio as on 9 jan 2013.
| sr no | stock | % | comments |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Unichem | 15 | long term core holding |
| 2. | ajanta | 10 | re entered around 365 levels |
| 3 | fdc | 10 | long term core holding |
| 4 | greenply | 10 | bought around 310 |
| 5 | canfin | 10 | bought around 152-154 levels |
| 6 | mayur | 5 | have been trimming exposure here |
| 7 | Hyd inds | 6 | undervaluation play |
| 8 | ramco | 4 | undervaluation play |
| 9 | visaka | 4 | undervaluation play |
| 10 | indoco | 7 | recent addition |
| 11 | anuh | 6 | recent addition |
| 12 | careerpoint | 5 | trading cum funda bet |
| 13 | goodricke | 5 | trading cum funda bet |
| 14 | murudeshwar | 3 | lottery ticket |
Exits since past update include atul auto, kaveri seeds, techno electric, muthoot capital, shasun, fk onco, etc.
trading cum funda and undervaluation plays are sort of medium term bets not to be confused with long term core bets.
ps: forgot to put in shilpa medicare which is close to 5% of portfolio. In overall calculations, the trading cum funda bet and undervaluation percentage will come down by around 1% each.
Thanks a lot Hiteshji for your updated portfolio. You are a role model for many of us here.
Thanks
Supratik
Hitesh Bhai, Thanks for posting your latest portfolio. Please let us know your reasoning of missing Astral in portfolio? Also about Mayur, I remember some time back you said that FY14 should be really good for it afterbackward integration and expected robust growth in exports, wants to know of thereās any specific development except price movements due to which you are intended to trim it?
jagbir,
I missed astral mainly bcos I was more concerned with the forex issues it suffered earlier. Should have thought a little into the future and maybe could have taken a different decision.
Mayur I think management itself says that second half is likely to be flattish. If that turns out to be true, currently it seems to be fairly valued. Only logic of trimming Mayur holding is to do with valuations.
regards, hitesh.
Hitbhai almost 50% of portfolio in pharma. But pharma plays do come with some terminal valuations from where the cycle is reversed and the cycles are pretty short. Letās take gruh or HDFC or indusind or karur bank,hawkins,page etc these are the stocks which are in long term uptrend and we can stick to them for next ten years. I feel 50 % of portfolio should be secular growth stocks like above. Rest 50% can be opportunity based allocation which can be traded frequently.
The entry and exit from techno electric was without any meaningful gain and sound logic.Please coment on this.
Also this portfolio appears to me as a collection of nearterm opportunities rather than a
long term wealth building exercise with minimum churning and without frequent policy changing.
I donāt see influence of peter lynch anywhere in this stock selection.
regards
prasad
prasad,
almost 50% portfolio comprising of top few stocks consist of long term holdings in stocks which I have been holding since almost 1-2 years or more.
Regarding the stocks mentioned like hdfc, kvb, hawkins, page etc ā yes they are in long term uptrend but I feel there is a lot of collective optimism in these stocks and personally I dont find too much of a rerating possibility in these stocks unless there is some sort of bubble forming in these. These will broadly follow earnings trajectory as we go forward.
About pharma stocks what one needs to see is the tremendous amount of wealth created by pharma stocks over the years. It is quite close to the fmcg and consumer segment stocks in terms of wealth creation. One example is ajanta pharma which has gone up four times since dec 10 i.e within 2 years. Thats at par with page inds returns and better than hawkins.
Regarding opportunistic buys yes their percentage has increased in current portfolio and these are likely to be churned as and when opportunity arises. This has more to do with current market mood where there is strong momentum and appetite for small and mid caps.
About techno electric buy was around 170 and sell was around 210 levels which provided 20% returns within short period of time. By itself this may not appear too much for part of the portfolio occupied by the stock but if one were to consider the capital rotation in these short to medium term opportunities, the overall returns makes a big impact on portfolio.
What I would like to re inforce is that long term compounding is not the only way to building wealth. If you can rotate the capital at high rates of return with high degree of success, there can be good returns. But I wouldnt advocate this strategy for most of people in market. One needs to be nifty in entry and exits. And this strategy should not be the cornerstone of investment philosophy. Depending upon market moods, one can modify the investment style in part of the portfolio.
Impact of Lynch is more on stock selection criteria. Regarding portfolio construction I need to put in some more work and devise a better strategy but till now since I have got very good returns I have not got down to this thing seriously. That remains next on wish list.
thanks for the constructive criticism.
1 Like
Congrats Hitesh Bhai.All your stocks are on fire! Today Unichem too joins the party 
And thanks for enriching some of us who have participated in your ideas.
1). Have you exited Atul Auto fully? Or PPB? I may have missed the reason if youāve mentioned elsewhere. Just yesterday I tweeted to Ayush that in the last fortnight, Iāve started seeing Atulās passenger autos (I think it was 6+1 model, but couldnāt make out clearly in night time) on Bombay-Goa highway, in Konkan region near Mahad-Chiplun stretch. Till now I hadnāt seen em plying in Maharashtra. Even their Dec sales growth were as good as their prevs 6-month despite Dec being bad for all automakers due to year-end model rollover. Itās one of my top-holdings too. So I just need to know if you exited due to funda reasons or you have other good opportunities in hand?
2). From all your comments on Unichem, can I assume yr conviction in it as as high as Ajanta when you first latched onto it? (or maybe even higher).
Iāve used this rally to exit decent gains on some non-core trading stocks and instead of sitting on cash, Iād prefer to increase my allocation to some long-term buy-forget stocks. Unichem which is currently 7% pct of PF, is only one which has not runup too much. I donāt mind increasing it to 10-12%. Plus one of my PF goals is to reduce diversification.
Ofcourse onus is all on us, but frankly, I canāt seem to recall a single idea of yrs where any of us has lost anything. So all credit to you. Thereās a lot to learn from you - not just art of stock-picking but also yr guts and gumption to latch onto ST quick opportunities with conviction.
Hi Hitesh,
Congrats on your portfolio performance and many thanks for guiding all of us.
Would like to know your reason for exiting, as well as view on Fresenius Kabi and JB Chem at present.
Thanks in advance.
**
**
Point well taken hitesh bahi. As you feel that most of the possible long term wealth creaters are priced to perfection you are generating returns from churning nearterm opportunities.Here I must admit that influence of Lynch clearly visible because when he generated 30 -40 baggers he never let go a short term 25% gains and used to be always in hunt for the same.But clear absence/overpricing of long term winners across sectors indicates that markets are due for major correction.That is not a good news at all.
On a lighter note if hiteshhai is made chief selector of Indian cricket team, we will find a new team for every match. Surely he will just go through the domestic performers for last few weeks and just pick the inform players regardless of they carry big names or not or what is their past record.
regards
Prasad,
As I said earlier, donāt restrict yourself to a particular way of investing and making money. There are n number of ways to investing success and suits different people and investing styles.
Been observing Hitesh bhaiās portfolio and picks since 2011, what amazes me is his ability to pick a stock well ahead of the crowd and make a timely exit booking hefty profits. This entry and exit is extremely crucial as important as the stock selection for a high asset turnover portfolio.
Lot to learn and incorporate.
Thanks rudra,
I have already started some changes in my investing style and looking openly at all the companies and started studying some themes beyond my comfort zone (good quality B2C companies with high ROE).Infact I have taken a position in murudehswar and considering a position in techno electric.One is undervalued asset heavy takeover target and other is a quality company in beaten down sector
funny thing.
after reading prasadās portfolio thread, i was thinking in terms of adapting my investing style somewhat similar to his and here he wants to change his investing sytle.
Joining this forum has made me start thinking differently. Hiteshbhai take a case of polymedicure (ayush suggested this one to me). If one just forgets the fact that this has been a 50 bagger in past and just concentrates on future,what a fantastic pick still it is.
I was very positive about this sector around 2005 -2006 and bought siemenās healthcare that time.At that time toatal market for medical equipment in India was around 5000 crs. Globally GE,siemens and phillips operate in this field and share 30-30-30 % of marketshare.
Siemens healthcare was listed that time and I bought that and bagged 6 bagger.After that when it came to reinvesting gains I had stumbled upon poly medicure but because of my top down approch totally dismissed it and it became a 40 bagger after that.
Today medical equipment market is worth 25000 crs,top end equipments are still supplied by three global giants but poly has been able to establish a place for itself.
But still at 500 cr market cap this company is catering to a present market of 25000 cr.
Hence leave alone future even the present opportunities are huge.Changing nature of medical business from unorganised to organised suits very well for this one and offers a
huge scalability and benefits arising out of economics of scale.
This thinking ability and openness to ackowlwdge is a take from my short stay at valuepickr. This what I call a gradual change in thinking process.
Atleast I have established and zeroed on to two long term investment themes
1)Techno electric
2)Ploly medicure
stock | % | comments | 1 | Unichem | 15
ajanta | 10 | fdc | 10 | greenply | 10 | canfin | 10 | mayur | 5 | Hyd inds | 6 | ramco | 4 | visaka | 4 | indoco | 7 | anuh | 6 | careerpoint | 5 | goodricke | 5 | murudeshwar | 3 | lottery ticket
Hiteshbhai what you make out of International trvl house (your old fvt).Afetr recent correction at 170-180 lecvels stock is looking really attractive.
ITC has known history of playing a VC (very generous one) to its own subsidiaries.After FMCG,food and apparel their next obvious venture looks to be travel.Since in this sector there are no big established opponents they are quite likely to succeed also.I am having a feeling that they will taper down their aggression in soaps/apparels and concentrate more on food and travel. Around 2006-2007 they started their move in FMCG,apparel sector and till now only able to establish in food (biscuits) sector.I am sure there will be huge pressure from parent company of ITC to review the strategy.From 2016-2017(after a decade in FMCG) onwards ITC may back ITH in big way and that would be a game changer for this stock. Overall change in thinking of masses about travel is also a huge positive.Only problem is the waiting period before ITC takes this seriously.
stock | % | comments | 1 | Unichem | 15
ajanta | 10 | fdc | 10 | greenply | 10 | canfin | 10 | mayur | 5 | Hyd inds | 6 | ramco | 4 | visaka | 4 | indoco | 7 | anuh | 6 | careerpoint | 5 | goodricke | 5 | murudeshwar | 3 | lottery ticket
Dear Hitesh bhai,
Surprised to see GRP LTD is not in your core portfolioā¦
or u missed it ??
regards,
Shanid V H
prasad,
I used to hold ithl earlier. but although it is a steady business, it lacks proper attention from parent or promoters in terms of pursuing strong growth strategy. Till that time it is likely to remain lacklustre and trade in a range bound manner.
shanid,
I had earlier exited GRP considering opportunity costs and got into canfin, greenply etc and other trading bets. Management is great- we have first hand experience having met them at last AGM. Very honest, knowledgable and down to earth guys both father and son.