murudeshwar ceramics finally starts moving. stock breaks its perennial range of 18-19 to go up to 20-21 levels today.
Hi Hitesh,
I had read your post and purchased Murudeshwar Ceramics at 18.25. As you had rightly said one will have to be patient about this stock. See what happened todayâŚ
From the chart one can see that the stock made a triple bottom at 18 ( 3 âOâ) and was trading in the range of 18-19 for some time. Today the stock broke the resistance at 19.50 ( triple top 3 âXâ) and went on to touch 22. Next resistance is now at 23.50 where it will once again make a double top and then a new high.
The momentum in the stock is good. It is presently trading above its 50 DMA and the 5 DMA is also above 25 DMA. See chart below:
One should notice when the 5 DMA cuts 25 DMA from below there is always a big price jump. This happened in October when it hit 23.80. It is now time for a repeat.
thanks tony for the murudeshwar updates.
I wont be surprised if the stock turns out to be a multibagger mainly bcos cmp is very close to the bottom levels and any positive developments on company front can give outsized returns.
hitbhai,
what is your opinion about orient bell? Below is some information is available on the value-picks blog -
http://value-picks.blogspot.in/2012/12/orient-bell-ltd.html
regards
HG
Hitbhai I went through one old report on this one and found out that this company is presently operating at almost 1/3 the installed capacity are you banking on the theory that full utilisation of capacity led by increased demand will turn around this company
Also tiles being heavy material attract a lot of transport cost are you banking on south based location of this company will be beneficial in capturing south based demand because most of other companies operate out of gujrat
Can you please share expected FY 13 and FY 14 EPS .
Thanks
prasad,
murudeshwar is a pick based on charts so not much fundamental logic will apply here. What the chartists say usually is that the charts move first and news follow later.
Lets see how thing pan out.
Every few years murudeshwar tends to touch the upper and lower trendlines of its channel I had put up on murudeshwar charts at following link
http://www.valuepickr.com/forum/techno-funda-picks/767556423#419013648
1 Like
Link: VALUE PICK FROM INDIAN STOCK MARKETS: ORIENT BELL LTD ------- BUY
regards
HG
I had a look at orient bell earlier and seems interesting especially after the merger of bell ceramics. They will increase their capacity a lot post the merger and once the initial teething problems are over the company might possibly come out with great numbers.
Hitbhai I was interested in knowing what actually drawn you to this script because I had talk with someone who was in retailing this product. Some points to share
1)Navin tiles was to the first company to have exclusive outlets in western maharashtra about 7 to 8 years back.So it had headstart over other companies. Presently they have closed exclusive outlets and clubbed their products with other construction materials shops like (selling pipes,sanitary and plumbing wares,lamps etc)
2)This company has very less variety to offer and basically beleives in making only popular items with builders on mass scale giving them price advantage.Because of this almost 60 to 70% of their products are purchased by builders and there are very few individual buyers like kajaria. Consumers are very much brand concious when it comes to plumbing and sanitary fittings but are not so much in tiles area(especially in semiurban and rural areas) hence builders use these products to lower cost.
3)Company sources almost entire raw material from its own mines and is almost fully backwardly integrated.
4)Both plants hubli and tamilnadu are strategically located and can serve south based market very well.
5)I think cost of power for TN plant is less compared to other companies and Hubli unit has some tax benefits.
6)They claim to have new process by which their manufacturing costs are less than others.
7)I spoke to some builders in my area and their take was anybody developing a decent area does not buy from kajaria or branded stuff but they actually buy from vendors who are supplying to kajaria or johnson.
8)Few years back this company was operating at 30% margins (much better than kajaria) what led to downfall.If it is cheap imorts it should have heart other players.
- I feel their inability to produce attractive designs and high end products can be attributed to their fall and unless they act on this front the stock will agian fall to lower end of trading range.
Please lets try and discuss some fundamental issues also. I have known couple of investors(working in same ind) with very good track record have taken good exposure in this co.
Thank you. Yes, looking at their execution w.r.t Bell integration, I have taken a small exposure to it. Looking at the trend towards vitrified tiling, I think the top 2-3 manufacturers should do fine.
hitbhai,
[ VALUE PICK FROM INDIAN STOCK MARKETS: ORIENT BELL LTD ------- BUY
** I numbers.
**
](VALUE PICK FROM INDIAN STOCK MARKETS: ORIENT BELL LTD ------- BUY)
This seems to be the Hitesh bhai week 
From Can fin to greenply to Ajanta to Poly Medicure, every one is having a field day one day or the other 
Time for the quarterly exercise of portfolio update (Sep-Dec 2012) so that we can latch on to the ones yet to jump.
On a serious note, Hitesh bhai you truly are a maverick stock picker. And perhaps the best ambassador for ValuePickr - separating the wheat (the blockbusters!) from the chaff ( the potential-pool).
Kudos!!!
Missed polymedicure inspite of a lot of prodding from ayush.
But yes the portfolio stocks are doing well.
I have reduced holdings in kaveri seeds and mayur over last quarter and new entries include canfin, greenply, anuh, indoco, some cash etc. Portfolio is assuming a pharma heavy contour but then so be it as till now pharma has rewarded me quite well.
The thinking now is about how to face any surprise market correction if and when it comes about.
I had some optimistic targets for portfolio returns when I started investing seriously back in 08-09 which have now been exceeded at year end. Now the thinking is veering more towards capital preservation rather than capital appreciation. Moving into partial cash to benefit from some deep market correction is also an option. Dont know whether that is the right thinking or not.
Till now I have more or less remained fully invested and it has worked exceedingly well but I guess at times one needs to change the investing style somewhat.
Wi****ll post details in a couple of days.
Hitesh bhai do you still hold HIL? What is your view on the company and asbestos sheet roofing industry?
yes i hold HIL. Basically it is an undervaluation play. I am not too thrilled by the asbestos sheet industry. Once the undervaluation theme plays out I intend to move out. Same logic applies to Ramco though in Ramco there is additional trigger of stake sale in Madras cements if and when that happens.
These will not be the typical long term bets in my portfolio.
Hitesh,
Isnât your portfolio getting skewed towards Value-buys -anuh, indoco, HIL?
Have seen that value-buys can be value-traps sometimes.
Regards
Regarding Ramco selling Madras Cement, i donât think it will ever happen,because this management control the companies through investments by group companies only.In Madras Cement,Ramco ind holds 20.72 & Rajapalayam mills holds 13.83,out of total promoters holding of 42.32.And in Rajapalyam,Ramco is holding 11.49 & Madras Cement holds 9.84 & finally in Ramco ind ,Madras Cement holds 15.43 & Rajapallyam holds 9.14.
-anuh, indoco, HIL?
I think indoco and anuh are not very cheap based on valuations. I would consider them as GARP -growth available at reasonable price. HIL is undervalued and seems to be on market radar now with PN Vijay recommending it recently.
Yes value buys often turn into value traps and that is downside to pure value investing.
exited atul auto. kept a very small quantity just for sentimental reasons. the gross undervaluation now seems to have gone out of equation with the sharp run up in price. Bought more indoco.
Man this week the Sensex and Nifty have dedicated their exchange to Hitesh. What a run!!!
hitbhai,
what do you think of greaves cotton? It has long term contracts to supply 3 wheeler engines to Piaggio, Atul Auto, M&M and also to Tata Motors for 4 wheelers. If the outlook for 3 wheelers is supposed to be good and there is also trend of some shift to 4 wheelers, shouldnât this also do well? Are there some concerns around this stock?
Itâs amazing but the âHitesh Weekâ continues now with Atul and Unichem joining the party.
What a start to the new year, Hitesh bhai, simply amazing