Hindustan Unilever (HUL)

[sujay85]

Ranvir's Portfolio

Approximately for what time horizon are you buying HUL for?

Ranvir's Portfolio

@Investor_No_1…for as long as it can compound its earnings at 13-17 percent kind of rates and maintains the hefty dividend payouts that HUL is known for. If this happens for next 5,10 15 yrs…I dont see a reason to sell. The real risk is…what if it doesn’t happen. Or if the earnings growth is lower than this. That may lead to a de-rating in the stock, a PE compression etc. However , my informed guess ( or judgement ) is …its unlikely for the foreseeable future ( atleast next 2,3 4 yrs ). But …

Ranvir's Portfolio

Even if the stock remains range bound, like it was from 1997-2010, while small and mid cap returns back to their rally ? I would like to know and perhaps learn from your conviction behind HUL, the stock definitely has corrected but it still appears massively overvalued to me.

Ranvir's Portfolio

Valuations are questionable…yes. But the thing with HUL is that they always remain stretched. This is not a genuine excuse. I admit. However, if one is ready to accept no returns ( a theoretical scenario ) …say till Mar 21, EPS should be in the range of Rs 40 per share( this includes the GSK kick ). Now at Rs 40 EPS and Mkt price of Rs 2000, its an earning yeild of 2%. ( this EPS will decide the mkt price of stock ) .Plus u can safely assume an annual dividend payout of say Rs 30 per share f…

Ranvir's Portfolio

HUL is now a completely different beast (HUL 2.0) with its WiMi (localization) & premiumization strategy. Their agility is on clear display (scuttlebutt, ads, reports) and has just started to show results. Just go through their latest AR & Presentations and compare them with the other FMCG players’ strategy. In addition, you may read the latest book “The CEO Factory: Management Lessons From Hindustan Unilever” to understand HUL DNA. Disc. Invested and biased.

Ranvir's Portfolio

I agree with you and myself got this realisation a little late than i would have expected myself. Just wanted to know that u had been buying FMCG since many years but entered HUL recently. Is it that like me you got this realisation late or any other specifics? Also with regards to my realisation, i sometimes think is it because i saw it perform in bad times and hence became a market movement follower… Lastly curious why this beast saw almost 15 years of stock consolidation…was it because of v…

Ranvir's Portfolio

Hi, Hope you don’t mind me hijacking this thread with my experiences. I’m in direct equity since late 2016, but cashed out in mid 2017 with some gains, as I wanted to make more informed choices while investing. I reentered during May this year and has been increasing allocation steadily to various picks. Throughout this journey I got rid of many mental blocks: e.g. earlier I used to invest only in smaller mcap companies, lower PE companies etc. I got invested in Nestle earlier despite it hav…

Ranvir's Portfolio

True. I had the same serendipitous realization. It was like staring at me all the time and I kept ignoring it. Btw, I have added one link in my previous post that describes the strategy that caused HUL’s turnaround in fortunes after years of stagnation in turnover. To add to my previous post. HUL is not only a FMCG company now. It is also into appliances: Water Purifier & Air Purifier under PureIt brand. It has entered into Water Purifier since 2006 and is a formidable player now. http://pur…