@Jeferson_S Hi, You indicated “based on management commentary”, however how it will be possible? Last 4-5 years no revenue growth and negative profit growth. I was tracking in past but not recently, is there any change in business model etc.? Thx
Your skepticism is completely valid, especially considering how the business has performed over the last 8–12 quarters. To be honest, even I think it’s a pretty ambitious goal. Is it possible? Maybe. But based on how they’ve delivered over the past two years, it definitely looks difficult.
What surprises me, though, is how consistently management reiterates this on almost every concall, that they’re targeting $1 billion in revenue in the next couple of years. That level of conviction is interesting.
At this point, I’m more curious to see how this plays out. Either we’re going to see a company that ends up being remembered for consistently over promising and under delivering (if they miss this milestone), or BirlaNu could go down as a company that was confident about the cycle, gave bold guidance of 25%+ revenue growth for 3–4 years, and actually delivered by doubling revenues.
Fingers crossed.
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Hi All,
What do we all think about the company not doing concall so far for the last quarter? Surprising as they have been pretty regular with their concalls over the last 2 years. Also, resignation by their chief procurement officer. What is the feeling about this? It’s not a good practice to not have concall especially during the tough times right? Is it that there is a major management shakeout happening or some other corporate governance issue? I am just trying to assess if this event is a red, orange or yellow flag? Confused.
Disclaimer: Holding
CG is the last thing I would worry about from Birla clan - they don’t care about milking through valuations or personal wealth in general. It is a falling knife and moving to the other (unfavorable) extreme. In general building materials (bulk or branded) are going through a brutal downcycle; look at tiles, ceramics, pipes. it invariably impacts BirlaNU because their money (ROI) coming from building products caters to real India beyond Tier 1/2 who hasn’t seen wage/margin growth in ages. That combined with excess capacities (in the market) either operating at breakeven avoiding folding down or ultimately consolidating is a difficult phase (some lapped up by dear BirlaNU for example). Coming to BirlaNU specifically they have so many moving parts that markets tends to just avoid valuing it as a true sum of parts.
Other than that, missing concall while an oddity, shouldn’t be much of a concern. Coming to CPO resigning, amongst the managers only Akshat and maybe CFO matters. Rest all are replaceable at a whim and they themselves don’t stick to one company.
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