Last week I spoke to an Ashirwad dealer who also deal tin tiles. He has been in CPVC industry for last 4-5 years. He was totally hassled by tiles business when compared with CPVC business due to severe competition( He wasn’t selling Kajaria but Somany n some local brands), less margins n that too get lost due to breakage of tiles,long turnaround time.
In contrast he was very happy with Ashirwad CPVC selling when he was selling only flow guard. Also Ashirwad is now selling out to a Belgian co as per business standard report. Any updates from all readers at what valuation n what possible impact it will hv on Astral?
Any updates on Kaveri price movement? Which are your top picks among your portfolio at current price n which you are tracking?
Any views on Havells, aditya birla Nuvo, Karnataka bank, Vijaya bank specially technical call where I hv recently entered.
no idea on the ashirwad story. will try to dig more.
as mentioned in my technical updates post, once kaveri closes above 1370, it confirms the next uptrend. it has done that now and it should be a buy on dips from now on. fundamentally, i am not comfortable with the prospects as they stand now and hence the exit.
don’t really prefer one stock over the other in my current portfolio as reflected by almost equal allocation to each. in terms of near term prospects, i would say astral, ajanta, hawkins, poly med rank higher
on your trading picks, i don’t really track any of them and i don’t usually analyse stocks for short term as elliot wave analysis works best for medium to long term. i would still try and look at them and get back to you.
arshiya is down 20% today on some news on foll link:
Stock seems locked in lower circuit at 97.30 amid sacking of some top honchos and some hooligans and troublemakers. In response some workers allege financial irregularities.
Thanks hitesh, I did see this. I am waiting for some more clarity to emerge and am on hold till then. These kind of reports do emerge once in a while but the allegation about the financial irregularities is a concern. The price is too tempting but waiting for some air to clear before either adding or exiting.
Arshiya’s management has responded but not much can be made out from it. I would appreciate if you could let us know if you are gonna add more or exit from this counter. Thanks!
@Vivek - I notice that you are able to get hold of senior people at many companies. If you are well connected, that’s clear…but if this is plain cold calling, could you share some of your techniques
its hard to believe that this management is fraud considering their previous communications, interviews and result concalls. i am waiting for a proper clarification from the management soon. the delivery percentage in today’s panic was only 26% which means there was enough speculative selling as well. if it falls another 20% tomorrow, i may add some more as at <500 cr mkt cap, this may be worth taking risk.
Not sure if true, read on the Moneycontrol forum that Arshiya’s mgmt is coming up with a detailed clarification in a few hours. Looking forward to that if so …
Only thing I found disturbing was news of company not paying salary from last 3 months.
But how come this news never came out before?
also recently promoters have issued warrants to themselves at higher price as well
So i am really hoping this is just a dip and it will turnaround soon …
i woke up in the morning to see a -20% circuit with more than 4mm shares outstanding on the offer. this clearly shows that the margin selling is underway and we could see a few more circuits here unless management comes up with a convincing explaination in quick time. i am holding off for now until management comes clear.
1). Has the ftwz in khurja been stopped completely or further expansion on that site has been stopped? i see no reason for not letting it run in existing capacity.
2). if all the creditors are happy with the prospects and not selling then who is selling here? you can’t have such huge volumes traded yesterday and huge pending sell orders today if the margin selling is not being done.
I am not exactly sure but i believe he was talking about further exapnsion on hold until completion in mumbai .He was saying it will not begin atleast in next 6 months or may be 1 year
2).
He said when he asked all of them said they are not selling but also added i currently cannot verify if all are true.He was talking about his pledge and said cant comment on others pledged shares
Arshiya International Ltd has informed BSE that the Promoters of the Company have been allotted on Nov 01, 2012 1,38,00,000 no. of convertible warrants aggregating Rs. 197.20 crores @ Rs. 145 per warrant and so far Mr. Ananya Mittal the Promoter/the Promoter Group has paid Rs.82.47 crores towards the same.
Further, the Company has inform that the Promoters/Promoters Group have on January 10, 2012 made further payment of Rs. 42.20 crores on 42,20,000 convertible warrants as part payment. Hence so far, they have paid Rs. 124.67 crores on these Warrants. After payment of the remaining amount of Rs. 3,69,25,000 these 42,20,000 warrants would be convertible into 42,20,000 fully paid equity shares of the company subject to SEBI ICDR Regulations 2009.
increasingly getting a feeling that the preferential issue was not something which promoters wanted but was forced on them by the lending banks. one of the banks which pulled out was probably not happy that promoters only converted the warrants partially. this latest move seems like a result of more pressure from the banks. arshiya seems to have tried to expand at a much faster pace than it could have handled. i think this crisis would instill some more wisdom in them about the pace of expansion and they would be more conservative in it going forward. this plan of 4 ftwzs was a project they came up with in the fag end of 2003-07 bull market and it had to be scaled back given the poor economic conditions. they did start limiting themselves to only 2 ftwzs but the move was probably too late. i think arshiya would come out stronger from this crisis. in the meanwhile we need to look for the stabilisation of the stock price.
Agreed! Also this move would washout all the weak hands from this stock. Do you think its a good time to add? or wait it out … since its almost down 40% from my holding level…
