Thank you Hemant,
Nice crisp thought process 
comforting to know that charts are also promising.
The opportunity is indeed of huge capacity will being utilised and that too with expanding margins due to higher value addition to its customers.
Lets see.
Cheers
Vinod
Hi Hemant,
Thanks for your views, last night was looking at buying history of Mayur.
The first time I bought it at Mar 2011 at 120 levels (bonus adjusted). Had I been holding on to the first buy, it would have been a 8-bagger, but booking intermittent profits and subsequent buys (at higher levels :P) made sure I missed that multiplier return.
The inventory levels in Sep '12 vis-a-vis Sepâ11 points towards a promising FY14 as well. I still feel the size of opportuity in Kaveri is huge, and it will have some rub off effect from the Nuziveedu IPO (as and when it comes). The undervaluation is not therebut it is not too expensive either.I will be happy toride a 26% CAGR stock for next 10 years ( 10x returns in 10 years).
Agree there are uncertainties, but being invested from lower levels, I will be riding this for the time being.
The CRAMs space is good and I feel all three - Dishman, Granules and Jubilant may dish out superior returns over the short - medium term. I am slightly more confident of Dishman, given their past track record, prudent decison making and turn around in Carbogen Amics. Holding on to my existing positions and adding on.
hi rudra,
i too believe in holding for long periods to benefit from compounding but woth kaveri i donât have the comfort of belief that it could grow at 26% for the next 10 years unless thy can make significant inroads in paddy hybrids. once that clarity emerges, i wouldnât buying kaveri even 50% higher because size of oppurtunity would be huge then. i wouldnât kaveri at these levels in this current scenario and i am a firm believer in the saying that if you wouldnât buy a stock at current price then you have business holding it in your portfolio. i still have 4% costfree stocks(generated from my returns in it) and intend to hold it to keep kaveri on my radar.
on the crams space, i also had dishman in portfolio since 65levels but exited at 100. i believe granules has a better growth opurtunity in the short term if management walks its talk.
** 
) made return. ** therebut toride
Thanks hemant,
Totally agree on this one 
Will look into the Granules story with more details. Till I garner enough confidence in management walking the talk, will ride Dishman.
portfolio. 65levels
deployed some fresh cash into poly medicure, ajanta, astral and mayur
added poly medicure and hawkins
Thanks Hemant for your timely input on Kaveri Seeds.
Based on our discussion I decided to book profits and converted the entire Kaveri holding @1370 to Ajanta and Hawkins.
On hindsight, seems to be a prudent decision, thanks primarily to you.
Looks like we need to put equal emphasis on fundamentals &technical analysis
Thanks for the kind words rudra. Glad I could be of some help.
Kaveri - this correction was long overdue after almost vertical rise. This should help the stock in the long run.
Ajanta - I think the madcap pharma is taking a breather here although the large caps continue to run. I expect this time correction to end soon and expect a good run in ajanta, granules and unichem over the next 12 months.
Hawkins - looking at the volumes with the fall, seems like some fund is booking profits before year-end. Technically the stock continues to be strong and I have been buying close to 2200. Q4 results should get this going again.
Now that 2012 is coming to a close, itâs time to review what performed well for my portfolio and what should the strategy be for 2013. Mayur, granules, Kaveri, cera and atul auto have been the best performers in the portfolio. Arshiya has been the worst performer year till date. I believe the next year could be the year should be the year when economic and earnings growth should trough out. Reduction in interest rates could be the icing on the cake. From my portfolio, I believe astral, cera, ajanta, Hawkins, poly medicure should give good returns with reasonable visibility. Granules and arshiya should be the dark horses. I believe 2013 could be the year when arshiya finally breaks out of the trading range. I have a few financial stocks in my watchlist like indusind, yes and gruh. Would look for a good entry point in one or two of them over the course of next year. I also have some solid businesses like page, amara raja in my watchlist and one of them should make way to my portfolio at some point. After 2011, where the portfolio generated 65% returns, I expect 30-35% returns from my portfolio in 2013. Global headwinds are a concern which could change the whole scenario.
Whatâs your take on Canfin homes at current prices? Any comparison with GrUH, GIC n lic housing finance
hi vivek, i am still studying canfin and other housing finance companies but to be honest gruhâs financials are far too superior to others and hdfcâs parentage gives those another boost. i believe its worth paying an expensive price for it. also, given that most of the financing firms and banks have to occasionally dilute equity to maintain their capital adequacy ratios, i believe that if and when gruh would look to dilute some equity it would be able to raise significant capital by diluting a small amount of equity due to the huge price to book value premium it trades at. i think gruh is expensive but should continue to be expensive due to the rock solid financials and huge size of oppurtunity in front of it.
Hi Hemant,
Yesterday and today i spent a lot of my time reading your posts. I have benefited a lot from all the guys over here. They all know who they are. My time spent here is wisely spent time. Always learning more and more. I love your analysis too. The stocks you own are nearly the stocks I have. I too am waiting for an entry in Amaraja. You seem to have missed out on Indag Rubbers. This one has given me good returns.
I also own Nirlon which trades in the band of 39- 62. Leaving the main business aside here is what I like. This is all mentioned in their AR of 2012. Here are the contents mentioned in their Directors Report.
OPERATIONS & FUTURE OUTLOOK
i) Development of the Industrial Park /InformationTechnology (IT) Park i.e. Nirlon Knowledge Park ( NKP) âGoregaon, Mumbai.Nirlon Limited is the owner of NKP, a 23 acre campus inGoregaon (E), Mumbai. NKP is an Industrial Park as per theConsolidated Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Policy of theGovernment of India (GOI), and is an IT Park under theGovernment of Maharashtraâs IT Policy. NKP, being anIndustrial Park, is eligible for FDI under the Automatic Routeas per the Government of Indiaâs Consolidated FDI Policy.Construction, Delivery of Premises, and License FeeCommencementPlanning for the development of NKP in four phases beganin 2006, and construction in April/May 2007. Currently,Phases 1 and 2 are complete.
Phases 1 & 2: A total of approx. 16.75 lac sq. ft. has beenconstructed in Phases 1 and 2. Income by way of Licensefees from approx. 10.60 lac sq. ft. licensable area, which corresponds to approx. 99 % of the total licensable area forPhases 1 & 2 of approx. 10.75 lac sq. ft., is accruing to theCompany as on March 31, 2012.
Please note: The total constructed area of approx. 16.75 lacsq.ft. for Phases 1 and 2 includes two levels of basementparking for each of the four office Blocks, as well as a 10floor Multi Level Car Parking ( MLCP) ( which also has twobasements) housing the utilities, i.e. generators, chillers,water tanks, electrical infrastructure etc. for Phases 1 and2, in addition to visitor and occupant parking.
Gross License fees as on March 31, 2012 from Phases 1and 2 aggregate approx. 8.46 crore per month. Additionalgross License fees as on March 31, 2012 of approx. 1.32 crore per month are also accruing from other licenseesoccupying the existing old buildings in NKP (approx. 3.41lac sq. ft.).
Phase 3: Construction of Phase 3 (approx. 5.46 lac sq. ft. ofconstructed area corresponding to approx. 3.97 lac sq. ft. oflicensable area) commenced in the last quarter of 2010,and is expected to be complete by approx. the April â Junequarter of 2013.License fees from Phase 3 are estimated to begin accruingin stages from approx. October 2013 (the intervening periodfrom the Project completion to license fee commencementbeing the fit out period for potential licensees).
Phase 4: Construction of Phase 4 (approx. 7.25 lac sq. ft. ofconstructed area corresponding to approx. 4.23 lac sq. ft.licensable area [including additional parking area for allfour phases]) is estimated to commence from July âAugust2012. Completion of Phase 4 is expected by the OctoberDecember quarter of 2014, and license fee commencementfrom approx. April 2015.
When complete, (estimated by approx. October- December2014) the total licensable area (including existing oldbuildings) in NKP will be approx 22.36 lac sq. ft.
Marketing
The profile of occupants occupying Phase 1 and Phase 2presently comprise highly regarded and well knownInternational and Indian corporates. The Company istargeting a similar profile of successful Corporates for itsPhase 3 and Phase 4 development.
Thus far, the Company has signed binding LOIs with twoMNCâs who have committed to license space in Phases3 / 4. Further the Company is in serious discussions withvarious other well known and financially sound Corporatesto secure additional commitments for these phases.
Financing
The Companyâs debt funding to-date continues to beprovided by HDFC Limited and can be broadly be brokendown into three categories:-
(i) Securitized loan - ` 518.89 crore (as on March 31, 2012)being repaid in equal monthly installments of principaland interest from the existing License fees.
(ii) Construction loan for Phase 3 - 57.00 crore drawndown as on March 31, 2012 (out of a total of 200.00crore sanctioned).
(iii) Construction loan for Phase 4 â ` 225.00 crore hasbeen sanctioned to date.
This is another Nesco in the making. A turnaround stock.
Will appreciate your views and of others over here.
Hitesh/ Ayush/ Donald/ Dhwanil and the others too please respond.
tony,
I had a look at nirlon a couple of years back and gave it a miss. The underlying theme is very attractive in these companies where there is a perpetual source of rental income once the project nears completion.
Biggest problem is that the income goes into the hands of promoters and then what they do with the money is anybodyâs guess. Unless they formulate a specific dividend policy or any other growth plan in a transparent manner, markets are not going to pay top dollars for the company in question.
NESCO is another such example. It spent a lot of time around 600-650 levels and by now has gone up by only around 20% whereas if we latch on to something like canfin homes or greenply which apparently is undervalued and is sure to be rerated by markets, the returns are much quicker and there is less opportunity costs.
hi tony,
i tend to agree with hitesh here. i was an early investor in nesco but exited it due toopportunitycosts and amazingopportunitiesavailable elsewhere. these stocks definitely hold value but what would make the market realize their worth is unclear. there are many stocks in my portfolio which have given me more than 100%returnsand are likely to provide very good returns going forward and hence i would like to give these stocks a conscious miss.
Hi Hitesh/Hemant,
Thank you for sharing your perspective. In fact I have only been trading in this stock since i learnt Point and Figure charting. It has a set pattern. From 39 to 62. I have entered this stock the 3rd time. Now my current cost is 41.75 which i bought couple of days back. It already hit 46. Will sell around 52 and keep some of them free or ride up to 62.
quarterly portfolio update:
have added amara raja, kajaria and poly medicure over the christmas to new year period. the portfolio stands as:
mayur 10%
astral. 10%
granules.9%
arshiya.9%
atul auto. 9%
ajanta. 10%
hawkins. 10%
cera. 10%
poly medicure 9%
amara raja 9%
kajaria 5%
impeccable timing on all three additions!
true. got lucky with poly medicure and amara raja⌠on amara raja the stock correcting to the 50 ema was just too tempting to ignore
Had spoken to Kajaria marketing fairly senior guy. He was quite sanguine abt good results this qtr n more takeover in offing in JV route.but is the same already built in price?
hi vivek,
i think this is a fairly routine correction after a strong run-up. would expect kajaria to soon move towards 300 once this time consolidation is done. kajaria is a fairly secular pseudo-consumption play on indian middle class story and i believe that is far from over.
