Guys
Arshiya International has fallen by 50 %
Hemant paaji,
Request you to see the portfolio āNoviceā in the Forum Portfolio Q&A.
Since its a concentrated one & micro-cap heavy, concerned about it.
It will be of immense help, if you can guide me.
Regards
Hi Hemant,
I hold Wimplast and its been on a tear recently. I feel its going up too quickly and not sure whether its sustainable. Request you to give your assessment on this and at what price you would do profit booking if you held it.
Hi Hemant/ HG,
It is regarding WIMPLAST:
I had purchased this stock on a correction at 345 and a price objective of 535.Today the stock made a new high around 425. The charts look extremely good. Would like your views on the same.
Tony
hi tony,
wimplast is one stock which consolidates after every big move to digest the gains which eliminates any chances of sharp falls. i like the way it behaves, the stock is in wave 3 from the elliot wave perspective and its difficult to put targets for such strong stocks. your target is not difficult to achieve from a 6-9 months perspective.
Hi Hemant,
Not sure if its relevant now but heres the con call transcript you were looking for of Arshiya
http://www.arshiyainternational.com/upload/AnalystCallTranscript-10-01-13.pdf
-Niranjan
Hi Tony,
Iām certainly less knowledgeable about technicals than the two of you and if the target you have given is achievable than itāll be nice 
On a non-technical side, the promoters hold 75% of the stock and there is no real DII/FII holding yet. I think the lack of liquidity is keeping speculators out and helping the steady rise. Nowadays Iām debating between doing an SIP or waiting for a good level to add (like what Amara Raja gave recently).
http://arshiyainternational.com/upload/AnalystCallTranscript-10-01-13.pdf
The analyst call transcript held on the 13th.
Hi Hemant,
I like your analysis on Elliott Waves. It truly helps when making the right choices. Here is one link which i wish to share with you.
Hi tony,
Thanks for the kind words. I am still a student of Elliot waves. What this article highlights is a bearish count. One could make a case for this but I believe in going with the primary count until its proven wrong. Right now the count I maintain is a bullish impulsive count And would go with it until markets proves me otherwise. It has worked well for me till now. One more thing I would like to highlight is I use the nifty count to suggest good entry and exit points to me for individual stocks and nothing more. Until nifty completes the final high of the bull market( which I believe is quite a distance away) I would stay fully invested. Good stocks find a way to rally in sluggish markets and donāt really enter a bear market until the broader market enters crash mode like 2008.
Added some more poly medicure and kajaria.
Arshiya : everyone knows what has happened to it over the last few days. If you remember from my technical updates, I believed this stock was in a range between 110-165 and a breakout should occur this year and most likely to the upside. The stock did get out of the range but broke to the downside and has never stopped since. I could not exercise the stoploss at the lower range because by the time I woke up in London on the day of the news, the stock was frozen on down circuit and has never opened since. This is clear tutorial on how important long term stoplosses could be even when you are an investor. I would try to use the good to cancel feature from icicidirect to use stoplosses for all my investments going forward. Fundamentally, this has taught me a lesson that however bullish the story may seem, if the management has taken too high a debt to fund an ambitious expansion, be watchful. Also, never invest in companies with high degree of share pledging from promoters. This makes me a bit wary of granules as well although the debt is not too high but share pledging is still a concern. I would keep a closewatch on the q3 results and what management has to say and reduce some on a bounce towards 185-190.
Hi Hemant,
I like the way you reply promptly. I am currently following Point and Figure charting. I have a nice book which i wish to share with you. Please give me your email. Hope to hear from you soon.
Yesterday I added Kajaria to my portfolio. Should I add more as i have seen you doing so. My entry price is current price.
Hi tony,
My email is gupta.hemant@gmail.com
Regarding kajaria, it is hovering around 50 ema and 100 ema is right below at around 217 which gives me comfort regarding my entry point and hence the addition. The stock is in bull market and when strong stocks correct to the moving averages, they tend to be a buy.
hi hemant,
good till cancel stoploss order by icici would have saved you here as the gtc is a feature in icici , not exchange. so everyday morning icici software places the orders automatically. in case of lower circuit scenarios, such orders would still be in the queue as there are more sellers and few buyers and circuit comes into effect immediately.
better filters are the check on management quality, debt, pledging by promoters as mentioned by you
read above as āwould not have savedā instead of āwould haveā. sometimes mind thinks faster than fingers
I am a huge admirer of your tech analysis and clarity of thought. I remembered your call on Arshiyaās trading range and was fortunate enough to have got out of the stock as soon as I noticed that something was going on and the range was taken out.
As you point out, ICICIās good till cancel feature is an excellent feature to use in such cases.
I am still holding on to Kaveri based on your tech analysis and Iām hoping the uptrend continuesā¦
Also noted your cautionary note on granulesā¦
thank youā¦
Hi Hemanta,
According to info on screener.in 100% of promoter holding in Kajaria is pledged. You are adding this even though you pledge not to invest in co with high promoter pledging?
Screener may have a bug as NSE shows 0% pledging for Kajaria.
agree with gyan. akbar - can you let me know where you see that?
Yesā¦ I think it may be some data issueā¦ I also checked now on BSE and it shows 0 pledging. I was checking consolidated data on screener, link below:
Over the last few weeks, I have been thinking that a good long term portfolio should include a few buy and forget compounding machines. Have been considering gruh, Titan, page, hdfc bank. These stocks have been expensive and will remain so. Thinking which ones to get into and when?