Hi Hemant,
I hold Wimplast and its been on a tear recently. I feel its going up too quickly and not sure whether its sustainable. Request you to give your assessment on this and at what price you would do profit booking if you held it.
hi HG,
this stock is in a blowout phase and is being re-rated now due to consistent performance. this was on my radar for long and i had to make a choice between this and granules and chose the latter. the exit also depends on your entry level. if you were invested from 220-230 levels, i would book 1/3rd of the profits now at 380-400 levels. there are negative divergences visible all over the charts and the stock could consolidate or correct from here.
Hemant,
Thanks. I have it from 200 levels. Unfortunately, could not do anything this afternoon due to other commitments. Looks like it has started its downward movement already 
Will try to sell some tomorrow.
A few changes over the last few weeks. Booked some partial profits in mayur today at 450 and Kaveri few days ago ago at about 1150. Bought back granules today at 174( the amount booked earlier at 228). It seems to be in the last leg of downtrend before the next big up move starts. Will add more if it comes down to 160 levels. Have been accumulating Hawkins slowly over the last few weeks. This seems poised for a good move higher over the next few months. Planning to make it 10% of the portfolio. Also bought a small quantity of cravatex today. Will wait for this quarterâs results before buying any more.
more changes - exited unichem, most of balkrishna and booked partial profits in astral at 410(weightage had increased a lot due to recent run up so this is just to rebalance the weightage). used this cash to buy into my existing holdings ajanta, granules, hawkins and arshiya. would look to exit the remaining balkrishna soon. i hold 9 stocks in my portfolio now with intentionally equal weights reflecting my equally high conviction on all of the 9 stocks. current portfolio:
mayur 11%
kaveri. 11%
astral. 11%
granules. 11%
arshiya. 11%
atul auto. 11%
ajanta. 11%
hawkins. 11%
cera. 11%
balkrishna. 1%
Hemant
Thanks for sharing current portfolio. 
Just few queries
-
What the reason for exiting the Unichem and Balakrishna. Do you find any fundamental weakness or any technical weakness going further.?
-
Why Hawkins can still be a good growth story from here , as it seems its well discovered story by seeing PE somewhere 30+. Will it can chase the TTK market cap in few years�
Pls share your view, Thank you
hi sukhvinder,
please find my answers below:
1). i prefer ajanta and granules over unichem as i believe unichem could be a 25-30% grower while ajanta and granules have a big surprise potential. i already have a lot of 25-30% growers in my portfolio and hence prefer to have some high-growth companies to balance it and hence the decision to split some of the cash received from selling unichem to add to these two. i would review granules after q3 and q4 results as the results of the recent expansion would be visible by then.
2.PE of 30+ is on the non-normalized earnings as company has been going through of a lot of problems and hence not been able to operate at full capacity. I think once company operates at full capacity, it could generate an EPS of 130+. also, company should now be able to expand at hoshiarpur to 10000 cookers per day and that would launch hawkins into a different orbit. this all still excludes the potential from increased revenues from outsourcing. from my personal scuttlebutts through my family and friends, hawkins is a much bigger brand than ttk and hence i have full confidence in it catching up with ttk over the next 3-4 years. a big dividend payout ratio and excellent and honest management are just icings on the cake.
Hi Hemant,
Congrats! on a great portfolio and that too with equal conviction and allocation on all bets. Bravo!
Since we have a lot of top holdings common ( Mayur, Kaveri, Ajanta, Hawkins) just trying to understand what are your thoughts on Amara Raja Batteries and reasons for exit from Balkrishna ?
I am somewhat unable to garner that much confidence to take a large meaningful position in Atul Auto. As being the smallest player it will face the maximum downside on any negativity on the sector. Otherwise numbers and ratios look like Mayur of 2008. (Deja Vu!)
I am always in search for the next Mayur!
|
MAYUR |
ATUL | ||||
|
Ratio |
Mar-08 |
Mar-12 |
Mar-08 |
Mar-12 |
Comments |
|
Debt-Equity Ratio (x) |
0.45 |
0.08 |
1.17 |
0.10 |
Already there |
|
Long Term Debt-Equity Ratio (x) |
0.24 |
0.05 |
0.56 |
0.03 |
Already there |
|
Current Ratio (x) |
1.32 |
1.48 |
1.09 |
1.07 |
Need to improve |
|
Fixed Assets (x) |
3.36 |
6.02 |
2.31 |
5.30 |
Already there |
|
Inventory (x) |
12.02 |
15.24 |
4.56 |
13.45 |
Already there |
|
Debtors (x) |
5.26 |
9.55 |
15.07 |
57.36 |
Way Ahead |
|
Interest Cover Ratio (x) |
7.84 |
26.09 |
1.68 |
31.58 |
Already there |
|
Operating Profit Margin (%) |
10.8 |
15.95 |
7.68 |
8.58 |
Need to improve |
|
EPBIT Margin (%) |
9.38 |
14.83 |
5.18 |
7.28 |
Need to improve |
|
Gross Profit Margin (%) |
9.6 |
15.38 |
4.61 |
8.35 |
At Mayur-08 levels |
|
Cash Profit Margin (%) |
6.65 |
10.8 |
3.9 |
6.02 |
At Mayur-08 levels |
|
Ajdusted Net Profit Margin (%) |
5.22 |
9.68 |
1.39 |
4.73 |
At Mayur-08 levels |
|
Return On Capital Employed (%) |
28.9 |
64.46 |
8.27 |
43.13 |
Need to improve |
|
Return On Net Worth (%) |
23.4 |
45.44 |
4.81 |
32.33 |
Need to improve |
[quote="Prudent_Invest_, post:28, topic:774006199"]
> Hi Hemant,
>
> Congrats! on a great portfolio and that too with equal conviction and allocation on all bets. Bravo!
>
> Since we have a lot of top holdings common ( Mayur, Kaveri, Ajanta, Hawkins) just trying to understand what are your thoughts on Amara Raja Batteries and reasons for exit from Balkrishna ?
>
> I am somewhat unable to garner that much confidence to take a large meaningful position in Atul Auto. As being the smallest player it will face the maximum downside on any negativity on the sector. Otherwise numbers and ratios look like Mayur of 2008. (Deja Vu!)
>
> I am always in search for the next Mayur!
>
> Comments
>
> Debt-Equity Ratio (x)
>
> |
>
> Already there
>
> Long Term Debt-Equity Ratio (x)
>
> |
>
> Already there
>
> Current Ratio (x)
>
> |
>
> Need to improve
>
> Fixed Assets (x)
>
> |
>
> Already there
>
> Inventory (x)
>
> |
>
> Already there
>
> Debtors (x)
>
> |
>
> Way Ahead
>
> Interest Cover Ratio (x)
>
> |
>
> Already there
>
> Operating Profit Margin (%)
>
> |
>
> Need to improve
>
> EPBIT Margin (%)
>
> |
>
> Need to improve
>
> Gross Profit Margin (%)
>
> |
>
> At Mayur-08 levels
>
> Cash Profit Margin (%)
>
> |
>
> At Mayur-08 levels
>
> Ajdusted Net Profit Margin (%)
>
> |
>
> At Mayur-08 levels
>
> Return On Capital Employed (%)
>
> |
>
> Need to improve
>
> Return On Net Worth (%)
>
> |
>
> Need to improve
[/quote]
thanks rudra,
reply below:
1. amara raja is a great business but i missed the boat a few months back. i would wait for some time or price correction in this one before taking a position. it continues to be amongst the top 3 in my watchlist and i would enter on any meaningful correction.
2. exit from balkrishna - i was getting a bit nervous sue to the debt balkrishna had taken up to expand capacity and was possible issues the company may have in case europe doesn't pick up anytime soon. the case in point was GRP where the business is great in the long term but company is reporting not so good numbers due to revenue growth being slow and fixed costs increasing due to increased capacity. the GRP stock has been suffering since then. although, i must say that balkrishna seems to be in a different orbit which is evident from the q2 results. i may look to re-enter here if price stays below 270 over the last few days. i must admit exit from bkt may have been a mistake here.
3. atul auto seems to be like a gem in a drying pond. it has been reporting qoq and yoy growth despite the sector leaders reporting bad numbers. once auto sector picks up, this could really show explosive growth. the company seems to have negotiated the overall demand slack pretty well and management seems honest and willing to share wealth with shareholders. i believe in the story and willing to risk a few pennies for a potential jackpot.
4. rudra - have a look at arshiya as well. i know it fails on most conventional parameters of investing due to high debt but there seems to be a very nice story unfolding there if once is willing to wait for next 3-5 years.
|
MAYUR |
ATUL |
Ratio |
Mar-08 |
Mar-12 |
Mar-08 |
Mar-12 |
0.45 |
0.08 |
1.17 |
0.10 |
0.24 |
0.05 |
0.56 |
0.03 |
1.32 |
1.48 |
1.09 |
1.07 |
3.36 |
6.02 |
2.31 |
5.30 |
12.02 |
15.24 |
4.56 |
13.45 |
5.26 |
9.55 |
15.07 |
57.36 |
7.84 |
26.09 |
1.68 |
31.58 |
10.8 |
15.95 |
7.68 |
8.58 |
9.38 |
14.83 |
5.18 |
7.28 |
9.6 |
15.38 |
4.61 |
8.35 |
6.65 |
10.8 |
3.9 |
6.02 |
5.22 |
9.68 |
1.39 |
4.73 |
28.9 |
64.46 |
8.27 |
43.13 |
23.4 |
45.44 |
4.81 |
32.33 |
thanks Hemant,
Will definitely look into Arshiya.
I had Atul Auto, but wanted a lower entry (thanks to a)price anchoring and b)looking for more margin of safety) and hence sold out. Look forward to enter again on corrections.
Astral, I missed the bus completely even during 270 levels. Waiting for lower prices to enter.
1).
2).
3).
Sold some more of Kaveri at 1298. It now makes up 10% of the portfolio. I have generated almost 60% return in it in 4 months and undervaluation element has gone away and it is becoming more like an earnings story at 20-25% cagr which could be generated elsewhere as well and hence it is no more my preferred pick. I would look to reduce more of it on any further run-up. I also exited the remaining 1% of bkt.I used this cash to take an initial position in oriental carbon at 140 and Grp at 1560. They now constitute 1.5% each in my portfolio.
Hi Rudra Shankar,
May I know where do I get all these financial ratios.?
Regards.
Nelogal.
continuing from the theme of my last update, i sold more kaveri today at 1290. kaveri is only 5% of my portfolio. used this cash to add more of GRP at 1540, oriental carbon at 136 and bought back the quantity of astral i sold( at 410 a few days back) at 351 today(16% lower).
https://www.edelweiss.in/market/Financials.aspx?co_code=14817&tb=Quarterly
Go to the last tab > Key Ratios
For more insightful numbers like direct cash generation, working capital, dividend payout% visit
sold the minor allocations in GRP and oriental carbon, sold some more of kaveri at 1360 today and took a started position in poly medicure to track. updated portfolio:
mayur 12%
kaveri. 4%
astral. 12%
granules. 11%
arshiya. 11%
atul auto. 12%
ajanta. 11%
hawkins. 12%
cera. 12%
poly medicure3%
changes in
Hi Hemant,
Can you update the technical charts for Kaveri, any signs leading you to reduce positions or is it on relative merit basis only ?
Have a look at Kajaria, although we need to wait for a lower price to enter.
hi rudra,
reasons for reducing kaveri are multifold:
1). technically its extremely overbought on all timeframes due to an extremely strong uptrend. a time or price correction is long overdue.
2). the current outlook is for 20-25% growth(given that growth has been due to market share gains in a stagnant cotton market. this could be wrong but i think mar12 balancesheet may give us good indications of next yearâs growth. if my expectations are proven incorrect, i would load up again
3). it has given me roughly 65-70% returns on my portfolio and the current remaining holdings are cost-free.
4). i donât think of it as a secular growth story like other stocks in my portfolio but it was a medium term bet for me because of undervaluation. at current valuation, i see many other stocks with a possibility of better returns for now.
i would try to post kaveriâs charts tomorrow.
1).
2).
3).
Hi Hemant,
I too share your views on Kaveri and have exited a few days back.
Could you participate in the Granules thread - just wanted to know your bullish and bearish view points. I find the business model very robust and think thereis strong moat there. The insider buying is also very encouraging.
Cheers
Vinod
Hi Vinod, I am fairly positive on granules story but my bullishness is because of two reasons:
1). Huge expansion plans lined up for the company. After the company became a big player in the bulk products they make, they are now trying to move up the value chain.
2). Technically stock gave a huge long term breakout this year and the last correction took support on the previous fourth wave. 50 day moving average has been acting as a resistance for the last few days and once the stock cross that convincingly, it should be on its way to previous highs and more.
Concerns:
All of the plans have been well publicised by the management but I am yet to see the results from the expanded capacities. Till the results actually come through the story could well be only on paper. Once the revenues and margins start showing momentum, I would be more convinced and increase my allocation further. If the results donât start to show up by Q4, I would be out of the stock.