HDFC Asset Management Company

IMHO, finding correlation between GDP growth & MF AUMs and using it as an input to assess investment in a particular AMC is a bit far-fetched. For a macro perspective, you can look no further than trends in % of household savings into equity, aggregate MF industry AUMs & folios and SIP numbers. There is a broad consensus about the direction in which these are expected to move in future and a couple of percentage points of GDP here & there will not make a difference.

More important for the particular stock you own will be micro factors like its sales & distribution reach, incremental market share and management’s investor friendliness (dividend payouts). AMC business is a good business to do – low capital intensity, high customer retention, high margins, etc. But supply is probably rising faster than demand. Focusing on supply side factors is more important than demand. Favorable macro are good for industry growth but may not necessarily translate into gains for investor.

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Yes, I partially agree that, an investor should focus on AMC specific trends like Market share increase and the profitability.

My overall concern about sluggish GDP growth will remain intact as we are unable to use demographic dividend of the country. Its impact on AUM growth and MF industry might be negligible to moderate but I may continue to look at the larger picture and will keep tracking data.

IMO, MF industry is surely underpentrated. May be it will grow faster than GDP, may be it won’t.

What I am unable to figure out is HDFC AMC’s point of differentiation.

I thought factors like brand name and bank sales channel will make HDFC AMC stand out. Management keeps harking back on these points in con calls. However these differentiators aren’t translating in AUM numbers.

There are players with no bank behind them (PPFAS, Quant) achieving superior AUM growth, albeit low base. There are players with a bank behind them also achieving superior AUM growth (SBI, ICICI).

I think a major differentiator that tilts the scale is medium term performance of funds. Barring recent couple of quarters, HDFC funds underperformed its competitors. It may take a few quarters of consistent performance by its funds coupled with good visibility of fund performance in media to change consumer’s perception.

Disclosure: Sold out 1 quarter ago at loss. Hence may be biased.

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Due to their organization structure (AMC comes under HDFC and not Bank) & policy of HDFC Bank to have open architecture, they have really utilized the bank channels effectively so far (HDFC Bank’s contribution to AMC AUM is just around 6%).

With the upcoming merger, the structure would change as AMC will become a direct subsidiary of Bank. While the open architecture policy may remain the same, hopefully this move will increase the contribution from bank channels to higher share & quantum of AMC AAUM

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Not good times for HDFC AMC offlate :slight_smile:

First it was about few funds doing heavy selling and today the news of debt funds losing the indexation benefits. Similar rules came for insurance companies a month back but they got back after some fall

Hopefully the bad news flow stops here and they become more aggressive towards growth post HDFC twins merger

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My earlier concerns that, AMC stocks are actually not the compounders but are cyclic in nature and also subjected to regulations seems to be true with some of the events in past few months.
At best, these AMC stocks can be bought and hold for 3-4 years and Timing seems to be more important.
With poor growth in our Per Capita GDP, situation will become even more difficult for these AMC companies for next few years.

Though I am invested in HDFC AMC, my earlier concerns have actually played out and more caution is due while investing in such stocks in the backdrop of poor GDP growth which seems to be a long term event now.

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treating MF’s debt funds as par with the bank FD’s, wrt taxation, would actually turn out to be good for AMC’s, even if a small chunk of this money flows to equity MF’s, which is more likely.

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Exactly my thoughts…that would be good for HDFC

I still feel that there is a huge upside in Asset management business.

As the disposable income increases the amount of savings and thereby fund flow to asset management would increase. the growth in asset management would be higher than GDP as there would be people getting out of lower middle class and into a saving class, who would start saving.

The regulation would stabilise over time. The regulation cant be too restrictive to prevent growth of this industry.

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I am totally in agreement on growth potential of the industry. However, i fail to understand why HDFC AMC will gain.

Kindly share your thoughts on HDFC AMC’s competitive advantages.

Regards,
Mahesh

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Only thing that matters is whether active funds are able to generate alpha over index funds over long-term basis. Otherwise, passive funds will see higher inflows which will keep on depressing the margins of AMCs, although growth in AUM is guaranteed in India.

Now my concern is that a great investor like Warren Buffett advices common man to invest n passive funds because he feels active funds can’t beat indices over long-term with all the associated cost. Infact, he practically proved his point in 2015 or 2016 when over a 10-yr period, he generated ~ 10% returns in S&P 500, more than any of the other hedge funds whom he challenged in 2005.

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I think rise of Active / Passive Funds goes through a cycle. There’s a decade when active funds win and in another Passive funds win.

I will illustrate my point with the NASDAQ index

1990s - 2000s – the index went to the moon (Passive)
2000 - 2010s – It couldn’t even breakeven (Active)
2010 - 2020 – Passive Funds ruled it and Buffet rode it like a matador.
2020 - 2030 – Active Funds could rise again (Not financial advise)

I’ll change my mind if presented with better data.

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Emerging market like India active funds i.e., stock picking might return better CAGR compared to passive funds. Whereas developed country like U.S it might be a different story.

This is my personal opinion. India doesn’t have much liquidity in passive funds comparatively though it might improve in future

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  • Management awaits clarity on key regulations. This includes possible introduction of asset class level TERs and inclusion of brokerage within TER. Despite the setback of removal of LTCG benefits on debt MF category, management said there remain fundamental benefits of debt MF segment like liquidity and no taxation till redemption.
  • The company is focused on building its AIF venture and expanding its product portfolio in the future.
  • HDFC AMC launched 2 equity-oriented thematic/sectoral funds, 1 long duration debt fund, and a range of passive strategies.
  • Brokerages are estimating a revenue of 2255-2400 cr in FY24 with a PAT of 1447-1550 cr.
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My write-up on SEBI’s consultation paper that reevaluates TER for mutual funds

Here’s how mutual funds make money:

  1. An investor gives the fund some money to manage
  2. The fund manages it by investing that money in stocks, bonds, etc.
  3. The mutual fund company charges a management fee for this service, which is a fixed percentage of whatever it manages

The incentive here is clear. The fund needs to increase the amount of money that it manages. One way for a fund to do this is by, well, investing well. If a fund’s investment goes up in value, it automatically manages more money. But investing well is hard, slow, and not a lot of fun. The fun way to manage more money is just getting more money from your investors. That way, the fund needn’t worry too much about how the fund performs, the company running the fund makes money either way.

Last month, SEBI released a consultation paper that reevaluates how mutual funds charge for their services. The paper has 15-odd proposals but I’m only writing about the couple interesting ones. Here’s a post from Zerodha that summarises all proposals, if you’d like to see them all on one page.

SEBI doesn’t particularly like that the only way for mutual funds to make money is by accumulating more money from investors. One solution it’s considering is to allow mutual funds to charge not just for money management, but for performance. Sure, let mutual funds take some money for managing these assets, but if the fund performs well, give the fund company a decent chunk of the profits as well. That’s how hedge funds work, and arguably they do have a lot more fun with their investments. [1]

Here are two possible approaches that SEBI is considering. From its consultation paper:

Approach A: During the period in which the investor remains invested, the base expense ratio may be charged to the investor. At the time of redemption, the management fees may be charged if return of more than indicative rate is generated or annualised returns received by the investor is above the hurdle rate.
…
Approach B: There can be another approach where higher expense limit for performance based TER [percentage fee] may be fixed and TER inclusive of management fees is charged to the investor. The TER charged by the schemes in such cases should be based on the schemes’ performance during the previous year. At the time of redemption by the investor, if AMC fails to generate return above the indicative returns for investor or the annualised returns for the investor is below the hurdle rate fixed in advance, the AMC may retain base TER as may be applicable and return the remaining expenses charged to the investor, along with the redemption amount.

In Approach A, if you invest in a mutual fund, you’re charged the regular management fee right until you withdraw your money. When you do withdraw, the fund deducts a nice chunk from your profits (beyond a certain agreed upon threshold) and returns the rest. In Approach B, the fund just charges you a higher management fee to begin with. When you actually withdraw, it calculates your profit and returns any extra money it might have charged earlier.

This is very different from how hedge funds are paid! The general rule with investments is that you’ll have good years and you’ll have bad years. If a hedge fund has a good year, it’s going to charge for performance right away and take away its share of the profit before it gets to a bad year. If a SEBI-regulated mutual fund has a good year, it’s not going to be paid until the investor withdraws! In the management fee model, a mutual fund is incentivised to convince investors to invest as much as possible. In this performance fee model, a mutual fund is incentivised to convince investors to… withdraw?

I really understand what SEBI is trying to do here. Hedge funds take a lot of risk and often go crazy. If the risk pays off, they’ll earn a lot that year. If the same risk doesn’t pay off the next year, bahh, the investor might lose half their capital but at least the hedge fund got paid the year it did do well. Going by SEBI’s proposal, mutual funds will have to care about their investors’ real returns which will be a mix of both the good and bad years. Sure, it might work. But I wouldn’t be surprised if mutual funds just get their investors to withdraw more often to lock-in their share of the profits.

Grass is greener on the side of the new fund

A well known phenomenon of the Indian investment market is that investors don’t invest by themselves. They need a bit of a push and prod. Even if they want to invest, they need help with how much and where.

Mutual fund companies rely on distributors to sell their funds to end customers. Because, well, most investors don’t ever download an app and start investing. They buy through distributors who they trust! In return, these distributors also get a fixed percentage fee, just like the mutual fund company itself. [2] Since these distributors sit in-between the mutual fund company and the investor, it gives them quite a bit of power.

  1. If a mutual fund company is starting a new fund, it will ask its distributors to convince investors to buy this newShinyFund. This newShinyFund will give distributors a higher-than-usual distribution commission
  2. The distributor now goes to their customers and asks them to invest in this newShinyFund because it’s new and shiny. But the customer won’t just have large chunks of money lying around to invest. So the distributor will say “hey why don’t you just transfer your money from oldBoringFund to newShinyFund—I’ll do it for you”
  3. The customer says “yeah, cool” and they’re now an investor in newShinyFund which pays more to both the distributor as well as the mutual fund company

27% of the money in new mutual fund schemes launched between April 2021 and September 2022 came from old mutual fund schemes. In one case, this figure was over 55%. Over time, newShinyFund would become oldBoringFund, and the mutual fund company could just launch a newNewShinyFund and well, distributors would then sell that and life would go on.

SEBI’s proposal is ending this! If a distributor switches an investor from oldBoringFund to newShinyFund, but oldBoringFund pays less commission than newShinyFund, they still get paid the lower commission even if their customer is now switched into newShinyFund. I’m sure mutual funds and their distributors will find a way around this sooner or later, but for now, the incentive to push new funds is lost. [3]

They see me regulatin’, they hatin’

One way of looking at SEBI is that as a regulator it needs to ensure there’s transparency and let market participants handle the rest. SEBI is, after all, a market regulator, so it would be a bit weird if it didn’t believe in market forces.

Going by this line of thought, SEBI wouldn’t propose barring distributors being paid more to switch their customers into new funds. If a mutual fund company wants investors in its shiny new fund, and it’s willing to pay distributors more to achieve that, why does SEBI see it as a problem? Its job is to ensure that the investor knows what’s happening, but then it’s up to the investor to choose what they want to do.

I can imagine a solution that wouldn’t limit how much commission distributors get, but instead force them to explicitly inform every investor just how much more money they stand to make if the investor buys into the new fund. “Hey there’s this fund that’s great and you should invest in it maybe. It’s new and shiny, can I transfer your money to it, pretty please? If you say yes, I get to take my wife and kids to Europe this year.” I’m sure some investors would say yes, but presumably the majority would not.

Footnotes

[1 ] Here’s an Investopedia piece on the “9 Biggest Hedge Fund Failures”. Hedge funds, even those managing billions of dollars, often take on a lot of risk and frequently implode. Mutual funds rarely (never) do.

[2] These days, it makes little sense for anyone to invest via a distributor and lose money in the form of a lifelong commission. There are tens of fintech apps which allow for direct investing, as do almost all mutual fund websites.

[3 ] The SEBI regulation applies when a distributor “switches” their customer’s money from one fund to another. If the same customer first withdraws their money, then re-invests in the new fund recommended by their distributor, the distributor can then get the new, higher commission. Definitely a more annoying and time-consuming process though.

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Well written!

I think above statement explains how distributors may go about it and also that would serve purpose of Mutual funds wanting investors to withdraw in between so that mutual funds could lock their share of profits…like you mentioned above…

Bottomline is until investors do not educate themselves, its very difficult for anyone else to help them…

At least in case of mutual funds, inspite of all such leakages, the net returns long term investors get is much greater than most other asset classes…but still good to see regulatory bodies thinking for betterment of common investors!

On naïve question…my relative had an old dividend base MF and he wanted to “switch” it to growth based for same fund…I went along with him to the AMC office as he had it paper based…they informed that any “switch” is actually a sell (withdraw) and then Buy…so just curious which other “switch” you are refering to above that would not fall under a sell and then buy?..Thanks!

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Thank you for reading, appreciate the kind words :slight_smile:

So the guy in the office is both right and wrong. From a taxation perspective, he’s right. Switching an MF is the same as selling and buying. From a technical perspective, he’s wrong. The AMC accounts for it separately, doesn’t need to return the money to you, and there’s a record of how much money is switched from an existing fund versus how much is “new”.

Hope that helps!

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well it certainly helps clear things!

I agree from taxation its right. What I understand is from the way AMC deals with it internally, its like a switch to them as in money does not flows out of the AMC overall books…is my understanding correct?

Also, your above posts are very informative and you seem to have good understanding of AMC business. In this context,

  • What are your thoughts on AMC companies as an investment in current Indian scenario?
  • Their valuations have come down from few years earlier. Are these good long term structural investments and probable wealth creators?
  • Is US managing/regulating their AMCs same way like how India is doing currently or where India is eventually going?

Thanks!

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Yup, that’s right!

Honestly, I have no idea. HDFCAMC especially seems like it’s at a decent valuation right now, but it’s difficult to really predict how it’s going to be doing from a profit growth point of view. Because, after all, any money that one invests here is not being invested elsewhere, and there might be better growth opportunities in other areas. Personally, I already own HDFC and ICICI both individually and as part of the index, so I’m not bothered about owning either subsidiary separately.

I’m not aware of the nuances of how AMCs in the US are regulated, but from the little reading I did as part of this write-up, I think the regulations are largely similar. Market forces and economies of scale really cut costs there, so the regulator doesn’t need to meddle too much with expense ratios. There are also a lot of random funds that are allowed to exist there (ARK, for instance) which increases risk for the end-investor but is ultimately in the spirit of the market. All in all, like everything else, SEBI does control the AMC industry quite closely in India. Which reduces the risk for the end investor (saving them from extreme loss and dropping off from the market entirely) but at the same time reducing potential for reward (for both investors and AMCs).

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Surge in market is aiding growth in almost all AMC assets.

HDFC AAUM numbers
MAR : 445000 Crores
APR : 463000
MAY : 482000

Hope new parent helps in sustaining this growth

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