Huge chunk is going into Retendering. No one expect that i.e. 7000 Locos
If that will distributed on the basis of execution capabilities HBL is going to get biggest share out of it. To be conservative lets consider HBL will get 1/3 of 7000 Locos which is still 2400 Locos which is significant. Additionally management stated 11429 Locos order are going to come this year, out of which 20% is for developmental which left out 9140 Locos for approved. Out of 9140 Locos 25% will go to Kernex because of MSME guideline. After all 6800 Locos left for Medha and HBL. Lets take 3000 for HBL and 3800 for Medha.
This show 5400 Locos opportunity is still left for HBL. Considering this number, I am expecting 1400-1500 PAT for FY27 without including Retender locos. This financial year it can do 1000 odd Cr PAT for whole Year. Considering retendering of locos it gives good visibility of FY28 aswell.
Tushar, what are MSME guidelines which gives kernex 25% share confirmed ? There is no confirmed directions as such as i read. Can you elaborate on facts if you have any. Thank you.
The amended policy mandates 25% annual procurement from MSEs by Central Ministries/ Departments/ Central Public Sector Enterprises (CPSEs), including 4% from MSEs owned by SC/ST and 3% from MSEs owned by Women entrepreneurs.
As Kernex is under ₹500 Cr turnover, Hence it qualifies the criteria.
This is as per perplexity
Kernex’s investment are greater than 150+ Cr. if we consider Equity+Reserve , so may not qualify under that criteria ?
Thank you. Will check out if applicable on project like kavach
Isnt the MSME rule for the entire spending of a ministry. So for example Railways will have an budget of say 1.5 Lakh crore, x amount has to go from MSME.
This rule is not for individual projects or orders. For eg: Signalling or bogey orders go to major players only. The MSME portion can be done in EPC, day to day railway orders etc???
I feel that going fwd, safety will be a big priority for the railways therefore they will encourage other players/technologies to come in. The current set of approved suppliers do not have the capacity to meet the demand.
I am sure HBL management will look into other avenues if this doesn’t scale up well. But kudos to them for being proactive and giving updates from time to time, even when not getting orders. The problem with them is no quarterly concalls and business updates, or hardly any updates on future plans. We don’t have any concrete information on their electric truck business/fuse orders. Although the management is transparent, I believe it’s a very difficult business to predict growth for the next 3-5 years, and it’s going to be a hell of a ride. The stock has already done more than 10x in the last 3-4 years, but it has been a lumpy ride for sure. *Invested and biased.
Arent there TCAS or kavach system operating in EU ? anyone having any idea
EU has ETCS system of various levels just like Kavach. This was a derailment and then crash. TCAS cannot help here (or may be time was too less to effectively react, depending upon the level of ETCS). Like coromandel express accident, where signal box wiring was wrong, so track positioning was different from signalling, no TCAS could be of help (coromandel had already derailed before crash due to wrong track setting).
Higher level ETCS should have been active on this high speed track. May be Level 3 would have been capable of reacting in this situation. Kavach looks like ETCS level 2 to me.
Disc: not a domain expert
