Gujarat Themis Biosyn Ltd - Bulk Drugs growth momentum

Wow 200 crores capex being planned …they expect roi of 50 crores every year if im not mistaken(please correct me if I am) …capex would be coming online from end of 2023 …!! Wasn’t really clear what their plans for growth would be in the meanwhile …if anyone knows could you please mention it

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Here are my notes from the concall.

GTBL is one of the few companies worldwide with expertise in using fermentation to produce bulk drugs. The company has two products, both of which contribute approximately equally to the revenue and profit, and is the only company in India that produce these products.

The current high margins are a result of increased product prices since the last few years, even before the pandemic. Raw material prices can result in around 1% variation in the margins.

The company will do Rs 200cr capex over the next 2-3 years to manufacture around 6 new products and will include a new R&D facility. Capex will be from internal accruals and debt. They expect to break even within 3-4 years from this capex.

The company has two customers. Two more will be added soon. Capacity utilization in this financial year is around 75% and can be increased to 100%.There was no mention or question related to inorganic growth plans mentioned in the investor presentation.

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Capacity utilization as I understand --75% last FY FY21 and now in FY22 --close to maximum % utilization and expected to remain close to maximum in next two quarters

I stand with what I wrote. Please check the discussion around 1:01:00.

Yuhan group has exited and Pharmaceutical Business Group has bought their stake.

  • What are the reasons for their exit? Is this a big negative sign? The stock doesnt seem to have reacted to this?

  • I want to understand on the credentials of Pharmaceutical Business Group. I am unable to find anything. Does anyone know about them, it seems to be an unlisted entity. Do they really have the technical prowess like Yuhan?

  • Management indicated they are coming up with new products but never mentioned anything. Does any one have any details?

As per the half yearly Balance Sheet, company has given a loan of Rs.17 crore to somebody in H1. Any idea to whom this has been given? I could not find any mention in the concall transcript either.

Moreover, the Rs.8 crore increase in Financial Assets – Others could also be Loans and Advances. Thus, almost the entire money made in H1 of around Rs.25 crores has been lent out.

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I have sent mail to the management attaching the image of Balance Sheet 2 week back and asked them to throw some light on the matter but no reply till date

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Results are out. Sales drop YOY and also profit. Why are all Pharma companies posting dismay results? Had high hopes from this company as the management said, their contracts are in place for the demand , so how come the demand reduced this quarter?

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That too by almost 50% drop in sales
Expecting margins impact like other pharma companies but no so big drop in sales

Only reason I can anticipate is shifting of some shipments to January but management has to confirm on that

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Is there a management call scheduled? I found this company to be rocksolid with stable sales and that too with fixed orders. 50% down sales is so worrying. But my conviction is still high for this high margin business, wonder why sales dropped so drastically which should change the conviction

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There’s a large negative “Changes in inventory” line item. So likely it’s a delay in delivery. They are a 2 product company and could also be that they have very limited customers. These intermediates are likely sold in batches and it could be they are supplying to one customer for one of the products and the delivery is delayed. There are inventory pressures overall in the system, especially regulated markets. So could be that the customer they are catering to has delayed the order. Because the revenue is exactly half of the usual (Rifa-S and Rifa-O are evenly matched in contribution otherwise).

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Good catch. Is this a good reason for beating down the stock? Am sure it would show up in the next quarter anyway. ? Stock called 6% today.

What didn’t fell today? :sweat_smile:

I’m more keen to see what their other products are gonna be. These intermediates are a good space to be in. But if the end molecule (client’s side) has got into a problem (say the customer has gotten into a regulatory problem), it could be a problem for GTBL. But we’ll have to hear from the management honestly.

So, currently I can’t say anything about whether I’ll keep had I been holding (I’m not invested). If there’s a substantial positive on the new products side, would revisit. Right now don’t find that.

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The company has not shared any concall or investor presentation this quarter after an outlier result. Now the company is organising separate concalls with institutional investors. This is a bad precedent. Given the delay since the last public concall, it is difficult to ensure that no non-public price-sensitive information will be revealed in these ongoing concalls.

Furthermore, the details of the capacity expansion are not very clear in the previous investor presentation (or the concall).

Besides the bad results this quarter, the company has been facing plant shutdowns every now and then. Currently I am not too concerned about these things, but I hope these things do not continue.

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CEO resigns.

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This is a norm in micro cap and small cap it seems.

Creating information assymetry…

Hope Indian markets evolve with time

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Very recent development, may have to wait for clarity to emerge on implications, if any…

It’s not a new discovery or a new trend. Only the modality of antibiotic resistance development is explained. Of how the bacteria adapts to memorise and subsequently kill rifamycin. That too a particular strain of bacteria.

Bacterial resistance is pretty common and it doesn’t put a drug out of use.

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I think the key moat for this company is its Fermentation capability, something for which there arent too many players around. It is anyways trying to diversify and getting into more products.

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