Gufic BioSciences Ltd

jyothi · January 16, 2021, 12:08am

• Gufic group is in the business of manufacturing and marketing injectable products since late ‘70s
• Navsari facility is a WHO GMP certified injectable manufacturing unit, catering to general and hormonal products
• Gufic currently has 9 Lyophilizers catering to total capacity of 19.2 million vials per year
• Gufic’s lyophilizatoin product includes antibiotic, antifungal, cardiac, infertility, antiviral, and proton pump inhibitor
• Pharmaceuticals contribute 88% and API business contributes 12% of the revenuw
• Gufic Stellar: A newly created specialty SBU with specific focus on Orthopaedic and Gynecological products in various segments like Pain, Infection, Pregnancy, Lactation and bone and muscle products. Focussed markets are metros
• Gufic Aesthaderm: Venture into the potential sub-chronic segment of Aesthetic Dermatology focus on Moisturizing agents, Anti-aging, Hyperpigmentation, Sunscreen and Pre/ post procedural products
• Building Covid-centric products like anti-infectives, Sepsis products and Peptites
• 30 active projects in pipeline, initiated 3 clinical trials in India in the field of anti-virals, resistant bacteria infections and Dermatology
• API business: Categories of API manufactured are Anti-Fungals along with their Intermediates, Anti-bacterials and Anesthetic agents. Plans to add 6 new products
• Gufic would be the first company to launch an indigenously manufactured Botulinum Toxin (for wrinkles and sagging skin) in collaboration with Prime-Bio,USA.
• Technical collaboration with Lucas Meyer, Canada & France for developing Aesthetic dermatology
• Having 12 Brands
• Exports 12%
• Quite strong in Critical care
• Capex for increased capacity of lyophilized and anti-fungal products is fully operational
• Cash and cash equivalents amounting Rs 4.52 crore as on 31st March 2020
• Negotiating with international companies for in-licencing innovative concepts in Dermatology
• Deterioration in operating cycle beyond 130 days leading to consistent increase in working capital utilization thereby resulting in stretched liquidity
• Company’s gross cash accruals are sufficient to meet the long term repayment obligation for the medium term
• Amalgamation with Gufic Lifesciences Private Limited
• Post-merger, total Lyophilizers installation capacity increases to 37.2 million vials per annum
Company performance

Important highlights:
PE : 40
ROCE: 22.1%
ROIC: 18.3%
ROE : 26.7%
ROA : 11.2%
Debt to Equity: 1.18%
EBIT to Sales: 12.8
Yearly sales growth for 10 years: 19%
Promotors holding: 65.75%
Risks

Company is entering into high competition Aesthetic dermatology, this is a major deviation from it’s core business of manufacturing and marketing injectable products. They could have leveraged their past experience and explored new Theurepatic areas. We need to monitor all-round progress of this division / line of business
Merging the management’s personal owned Gufic Lifesciences Private Limited could unduly dilute the equity of the listed company. Appropriate stock conversion ratio is important for investors value for money
What are the opportunities

12 Successful brands
Post merger, capacity will more than double
If they are successful in high margin Aesthetic dermatology, company would get FMCG valuation
Disclosure: Did not invest, will invest in small quantities from next week. Would like to remind that the risks mentioned are very important to note. This write up is not for recommending either way.

Shivkumar · December 2, 2021, 4:46pm

link to latest concall transcripts.

Gufic has ventured into Botox applications which can be a huge game changer.

disclosure: holding and biased.

Nimit · December 4, 2021, 7:00pm

As per the concall the management firmly believes in Botulinum products but they have given a disclaimer that the current market size in india is very small (~150cr) but is expected to grow exponentially and it will take a couple of years before there would be any meaningful revenue coming from Botulinum toxin. The revenue in a month after intial launch was just 2 cr.

spvijay21 · January 3, 2022, 8:15am

Information from latest Q2 concall

varunm2112 · January 5, 2022, 6:39am

Gufic Indore plant has capex of 200cr of which 180cr is for equipments and 20cr for R&D. Any Idea how much additional revenue is possible from this plant ?

Shivkumar · January 5, 2022, 7:03am

If I am not mistaken earlier plants have an asset turn of around 1.5 to 2. So revenue of Rs 350 to 400 cr is very much possible. However the stock will be re-rated only if an when OPM improves. Let’s see if it goes up to 20-25 per cent once the Covid rush subsides.

disclosure: holding for long and biased.

Kushal_Gera · January 5, 2022, 10:09am

What is the timeline for completion of capex ? And what will be the waiting period for regulatory approvals if any ?

Rafi_Syed · January 8, 2022, 10:09pm

@Dr.Midhun @harsh.beria93 @Worldlywiseinvestors @Dev_S

Dr Midhun, could you please pick up the below query and help me to understand more about Botulinum ?

I have asked this question on Dr. Hitesh thread.

Botulinum Toxin Therapy
Botulinum toxin therapy (also known as Botox) is used to treat a range of neurological conditions and disorders for adults and children, including dystonia, spasticity and migraine.

Botulinum toxin is a therapeutic muscle relaxing agent that is injected through a very fine needle. It weakens overactive muscles or reduces sweat gland production, offering sustained relief from symptoms. The effects of botulinum toxin therapy typically last longer than other treatments, reducing the number of visits patients need to make to hospital.

Botox

Botox is a drug that is made from a toxin produced by Clostridium botulinum, an organism found in the natural environment. A health care provider can precisely inject it in small doses to temporarily weaken or paralyze specific muscles or to block specific nerves. The following are some of the neurological disorders that can be treated with Botox: Chronic migraines, cervical dystonia, post-stroke spasticity, blepharospasm, excessive sweating, TMJ or drooling.

Botulinum toxin type A (BOTOX® Cosmetic, Dysport®, Xeomin®) and botulinum toxin B (Myobloc®) are therapeutic muscle-relaxing agents that work at the site of the nerves where they are injected, and are associated with few side effects. Please discuss these with your provider based on where in your body you are having the injections. Some of our providers may use EMG guidance for your injections.

The duration of benefit is typically 3 months.

https://www.clinicbe.com/what-we-do/cosmetic-treatments/botox-injections/#1542105573769-f80de128-ef07

Prime Bio

https://twitter.com/katalystwealth/status/1474689882387668993?s=20

Many Thanks

Rafi_Syed · January 9, 2022, 9:27pm

How this is applied.https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5889450/

Here is the Research
AnnMovDisord3139-7482209_204702.pdf (191.9 KB)
published in 2020

A total of 50 members completed the survey (20%) representing different regions of the
country. The average doses of botulinum toxin conform to those mentioned in the literature. Only
type A botulinum toxin is available in India. Electromyography was used by 72% of the respondents,
however, only 12% of respondents used ultrasonography for muscle localization during botulinum
toxin injection. 72% of respondents were using an assessment scale for different types of movement
disorders. 76% of the respondents reported adverse effects in their clinical practice, with weakness
(69.11%) being the most common. 56% of the respondents reported challenges during the injections
with the cost of botulinum toxin being the most common (36%) followed by difficulty in localization
of muscles (30%).

CONCLUSION: Our results seem to show that in India, the routine use of botulinum toxin in clinics
is far from standardized. Low uses of USG, difficulty in muscle localization and cost of the toxin were
important limitations highlighted by the respondents.

Another Research Paper on usage of Botulinum in Cosmetology (Anti-Aging )

It is a deadly medicine (this is what I understand so far ), if it is such niche and has some decent market share then

Why there no big players in the market entered ? It appears to be Amgen is the largest player in this
As per Dr. Hitesh this is widely used, there are many different application of this molecule for different treatments. What Gufic is trying is to address the Cosmetology side application. (This is what they said in the IP )

Some more we can extract from the con-call transcript

Some more info at the time stamps given below during Q2FY22 concall

Indian Market Size is 120 Crore at the moment (Potential is huge in India and wanted to enter into international market as well but it is not easy )

Going to setup training committee to educate
Experts coming from Germany, US and UK (this calendar year first and second quarter going to roadshows to create more awareness )

18:39
49:00

Gland is one of the strong player in Penems , Gufic at the momentum they are outsourcing at the moment, they are going to backward integrate now . Margins will go up once they start producing in-house by at least by 10%

Other Players in Penems

Aurobindo Pharma
Morepen Laboratories
Gland Pharma
Dr Reddy’s Laboratories
Caplin Point Laboratories
Strides Pharma Science

One strong segment is Injectables, this area is not that much price sensitive (Less price erosion in US market )

Dr.Midhun · January 10, 2022, 4:05pm

Botulinum toxin is mainly used in cosmetic dermatology for short term treatment of wrinkles associated with old age. Major opportunity and growth lies here IMHO.

Botulinum toxin prevents the release of neurotransmitter acetylcholine in the synapses, which in turn causes relaxation of the muscle implicated.

And it is a very deadly toxin, infact it is the most potent toxin known to mankind(Paralysis of respiratory muscles causes respiratory failure and death). It’s minimum lethal dose is 1-2ng/kg if given intramuscularly or intravenously. That means, 60g of toxin is enough to kill the entire mankind (7.8 billion people). So the therapeutic dosage of the toxin is very much lower.

Therapeutic use of botulinum toxin is based on it’s inhibitory effect on the synapse and relaxation of the muscle. Therefore whichever condition where there is muscle spasm and we need muscle relaxation, we can use this toxin. But the catch here is, the action is short lived and you need to re-inject every 4-6 months. Also, the accessibility of the muscle for injection also comes into picture.Treatment is comparatively easy for facial muscles for treatment of wrinkles. But whenever you need to give injections endoscopically to inaccessible muscles every 5-6 months, it is obviously not the first choice of treatment. For instance, botulinum toxin ‘can be’ used for the treatment of achalasia cardia by relaxing the lower esophageal sphincter. But it is not preferred as a first choice because you need to inject the toxin endoscopically every 5-6 months. So it is reserved for those patients who can’t be surgically treated. Similarly in the treatment of overactive bladder, medications which relaxes the bladder are preferred first.

Botulinum toxin has been approved for the treatment of chronic migraine in recent past. But you should understand that, there is very effective new treatment modalities emerging for the treatment of acute migraine and it’s prevention.( Monoclonal antibodies and small molecules which blocks the activity of CGRP). Episodic migraine treatment and prevention is 90% of the market and chronic migraine treatment only constitutes 10%.

Major revenue for botulinum toxin is from cosmetic dermatology. Global botox net revenues for Allergan aesthetics were $1.12 billion on 2020.

Novel botulinum toxins and improved formulations are on pipeline for Allergan aesthetics.

In cosmetic dermatology also, the dosage of the toxin is very low. 100 units of the botulinum toxin containing 4.8 ng is usually used. So the volume needed for commercial preperation is very less.

Botulinum toxin is also used in the treatment of blepharospasm and Palmar Hyperhidrosis(sweaty palms). In palmar hyperhidrosis also, medical treatment with topical Glycopyrrolate is commonly used than botulinum toxin.

ayushmit · February 1, 2022, 5:14am

I have been trying to understand and read more about this company. I think this stock came to attention due to the remdesiver and black fungus thing and later due to botox. But I think we need to work more on their domestic branded business which has scaled up beautifully over the last 5-7 years. It’s never easy to build and scale-up in this segment in India due to the intense competition etc. But once done and after reaching a scale, it works out beautifully and becomes very valuable.
I spoke to a few doctors etc and everyone was quite aware of the company and had positive feedback to share.
I have heard some very good things about the next generation (Pranav Choksi) and the team which has been driving the change in Gufic.

After a long time we have a company which is B2C and we all can try doing more scuttlebutt around this company and its products.

Ayush
PS: Invested in family and client acs

vnktshb · February 10, 2022, 1:02am

The Non-CoVID portfolio of Criticare Group has shown strong growth fueled by Penem Portfolio (Doripenem, Ertapenem, Meropenem, Imipenem & Faropenem) and the Anti Fungal portfolio
(Micafungin, Caspofungin & Anidulafungin)

Core Infertility Portfolio has nearly doubled. We have seen healthy growth in this portfolio even
when compared to the pre-pandemic period due to certain changes in strategies

Herbal Products – Launched a new range of Multi-Vitamins which has led to high growth in this
segment

Spark Division – A new product portfolio will be launched under the Cardiac Diabetic Management in
Q2 FY23
Stellar – The division was launched last year, and we are seeing good traction in this segment. We
plan to launch 6 to 8 new products in the coming six months

Aesthaderm – Stunnox has registered strong growth and continues to see positive trends. This would
be one of the pillar brands going ahead

Nimit · February 10, 2022, 5:52am

Everybody, please read the results carefully.
QoQ: revenue declined by 11%, profit declined by 9%.

The investor presentation is focusing on 9M and YoY comparison which shows a growth.
There is no mention of QoQ results and no explanation is provided for the poor quarter as compared to the previous 2 quarters.

hamir_asher · February 10, 2022, 6:24am

QOQ comparison for pharma or any manufacturing companies dont make sense honestly. Its good for IT and Banking who have annuity businesses but doesnt make sense for other industries.

vnktshb · February 10, 2022, 9:14am

There was a bump up in 1QFY22 revenues because of covid related drugs. That came down in 2QFY22 and has further come down to 3QFY22. That is why sales is where it is. The company is expected to Rs90-100crs of profits for the FY22 which they are in track to achieve.

If you are not satisfied please listen to call the today where they will given explanation for 3QFY22 sales

parth_dalal · February 11, 2022, 8:41am

any key take aways from the call?

vnktshb · February 11, 2022, 9:39am

25% of 1qfy22 revenues from covid related drugs and 2qfy22 had 5% of revenues from little covid and a lot of black fungus drugs.

So 3qfy22 was first quarter without covid and black fungus drugs. So ex covid company shown good topline growth (ex covid and black fungus) qoq and yoy